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Stocks, shares, futures, and bonds / Re: S&P500
« Last post by Emerson on Yesterday at 05:57:35 PM »
Breaks?  What are those?

Enjoy yours and come back twice as strong as before!!
Thanks! :) I'm not very good at breaks at all and, in fact, I even took another quick trade before packing in just to squeeze the last few pips out of the move! :)

The wierdest thing is that I am basically trading a signal method that I have designed for myself and yet I find myself trying to compete against my own system!!!! My system went long this morning and I "knew" it was going to reach its 150 point target, but I had only actually gained 100 points overnight so I was trying to keep up with the system by squeezing another 50 points before packing in. I only managed 27 but that is near enough! (would have gained more if I could have left it!  :( ). Is that wierd or what!!!!  ??? ??? ???

I thought I would add this chart simply to show what I like about this approach. Most systems are designed to trade either trends or ranging markets, but with this approach it is often possible to get the best of both worlds by just taking the chunks as they come - either in each leg of a ranging market or each "pulse" in a trending market. It is only when the trend is really strong and without pullbacks that I get left at the bus stop - but that doesn't happen too often in markets.

I have marked each of the "pulses" in the SP500 over recent days and they have all worked fine and been banked even though not in one long "trend" trade. There have also been a few short trades in there as well, but they are a bit risky and need careful monitoring. Interesting to also note how that 1-hour 200EMA has worked as a support level (blue rings)

I am thinking of trying the same approach now with GBPUSD but with a 50 pip TP compared with the 150 point TP for SP500. I think the 50 pips is ok as a TP but I am not sure about the respective SL to pair it with. 50 pips is a bit tight in my opinion, but any more than that and the risk:reward starts to look a bit, well, risky:D
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Stocks, shares, futures, and bonds / Re: S&P500
« Last post by Caesar on Yesterday at 05:20:44 PM »
Breaks?  What are those?

Enjoy yours and come back twice as strong as before!!
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Stocks, shares, futures, and bonds / Re: S&P500
« Last post by Emerson on Yesterday at 07:56:32 AM »
Waiting now for the market to settle and a new move..........
Actually the usual impatience/greed syndrome caught me again yesterday!!!

When the market was at the point shown in chart 1, I thought this looks like the down-move is fizzling out and it would be a bright idea to get in early and preempt the next buy signal by a good 100 points!  I had earlier thought to put a buy order below at that red dotted 200EMA (which is a common S/L level) but I was convinced it would not now get there so I jumped in with a long with a stop under that 200 EMA.

Naturally, as always when I try to outsmart my own system (!!), the market promptly dived straight down to precisely that level! Fortunately, it did not break through and, instead, bounced off (as anticipated earlier!) and I was able to close it out with a +100 points this morning. as in chart 2. (But more from luck and an overall bull market than sensible trading tactics!)

Does anyone else find that whenever they try to pre-empt a signal from a method it always goes the other way?  ???  :D

Well, dear diary, we are now in a upmove signal but I am out of the markets for a week or so now due to visitors staying with us for their winter holidays. Time for a break and recharge!
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Foreign Exchange Trading / Re: Trading generally
« Last post by Emerson on Yesterday at 07:41:18 AM »
The real problems are when your account is dwindling away and you don't know why.
Or even worse - when your account is dwindling and you DO know why!!

I have read several stories on various sites about compulsive addiction to trading and its associated "sins" of excessive risk-taking, revenge trading, etc. It is a sad by-product of this industry that the ease of entry and the small initial capital requirement as well as the lack of any professional training facilities, all present a very attractive, almost irresistible, "home" for gamblers. Many of these are simply naive and think there is a chance of making a million and retiring to Bahama beaches with their trading app in their mobile. But there are others that are compulsive gamblers and know even before they start that they will lose - and they also lose the money of anyone soft enough to lend them more.

Just for the record, this is a general comment under the heading of "Trading generally" and is certainly not a comment about you, Eddieb!  ;D
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Signal Providers and Free Signals / Re: High Probability Trades
« Last post by Caesar on Yesterday at 07:25:04 AM »
UsdJpy

If this pair break through resistance there could be some pips to be made here
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Foreign Exchange Trading / Re: Trading generally
« Last post by Caesar on February 18, 2020, 07:07:03 PM »
Understanding what you've done wrong is the key to getting it right.
The real problems are when your account is dwindling away and you don't know why.
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Stocks, shares, futures, and bonds / Re: S&P500
« Last post by Emerson on February 18, 2020, 06:45:46 PM »
I am though pondering entering a long here anyway even though there is no signal yet! Have to think about that......
Having a think about things costs nothing - and in this it even saved money by not entering a long!!   :D

Waiting now for the market to settle and a new move..........
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Foreign Exchange Trading / Re: Trading generally
« Last post by eddieb on February 18, 2020, 06:26:12 PM »
Ive figured out some of my issues,  nothing surprising really just slipping back into old habits and forcing trades- looking in different time frames to make the chart "tell" me what I wanted to see,  ie that there is an opportunity when really there isn't.
Over confidence following very long winning runs is another,  thinking I can't get it wrong when clearly I can.
I need to get back to basics,  documenting my trades and stuff like that.


Namaste
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Stocks, shares, futures, and bonds / Re: S&P500
« Last post by Emerson on February 18, 2020, 02:42:02 PM »
Unless there is any unexpected news in Asia in the morning, I expect we will open around these same levels.
Well we did get bit of a sell-off on Asian news and I take that as further confirmation of the credibility of this "bite-sized" trading approach in today's markets. I am relieved that I did actually close out that long position yesterday at 3389.

Technically, there was a sell signal at the end of the first hour this morning in Asia at 3375, but since that was at about 2 o'clock local time, I understandably missed that one! Since then it did reach a maximum low of 149 points but whether I would have got filled or not, I can't say!. Either way, I would have closed it somewhere with a profit after having got to within one point of the target at 150 points!! So that trade was missed and is now over and am now just waiting for the next move!

I am though pondering entering a long here anyway even though there is no signal yet! Have to think about that......
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Stocks, shares, futures, and bonds / Re: S&P500
« Last post by Emerson on February 17, 2020, 06:56:01 PM »
The market remained very steady, mainly due to Presidents Day holiday in the US. We have hung around the high of last week's range all day, which is a positive sign, and the lack of any sell-off during the UK session suggests the current upmove is still intact. Unless there is any unexpected news in Asia in the morning, I expect we will open around these same levels.

It is not my intention to get into fundamentals here so I will stick with "no change on the technical canvas". But there has not been sufficient pullback to either go short or to re-enter long yet. The core of this short term trading method is looking for compressions and then going with the exit from the compression, i.e. when the momentum kicks in. But there is no compression here and so its sit-on-hands time!
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