Recent Posts

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Introduce Yourself / Re: Gazza here!
« Last post by Caesar on Today at 05:34:55 PM »
Good to have you on board Gazza.
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Introduce Yourself / Gazza here!
« Last post by Gazza on Today at 03:46:19 PM »
Hi all, my names Sean Gascoigne or Gazza to most people.
Proud Scot and Celtic supporter. Been trading fx since 2016 with a lot of ups and downs.
Ive been lurking here for months and decided it was time to take the plunge and join.
Will talk some more later, byefor now
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Foreign Exchange Trading / Re: Interesting chart pictures
« Last post by PipMeHappy on Today at 03:11:54 PM »
The magic ladder...

(my edited version of a recent Russell 2000 daily chart screenshot):

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Stocks, shares, futures, and bonds / Re: US-China trade war
« Last post by BWS on Today at 02:04:12 PM »
The Tiktok saga took another turn today as the U.S. Commerce Department said it will issue an order Friday that will bar people in the United States from downloading Chinese-owned messaging app WeChat and video-sharing app TikTok starting on September 20.
The department said the actions will "protect users in the U.S. by eliminating access to these applications and significantly reducing their functionality."
The order will not ban U.S. companies from doing businesses on WeChat outside the United States, which will be welcome news to U.S. firms like Walmart and Starbucks that use WeChat's embedded 'mini-app' programs to facilitate transactions and engage consumers in China.
The order will not bar transactions with WeChat-owner Tencent Holdings other businesses, including its online gaming operations, and will not prohibit Apple, Google or others from offering TikTok or WeChat apps anywhere outside the United States.
This begs the question, if its okay for businesses to continue using Tiktok and WeChat, and those businesses obviously hold customer data, then why bother banning them from dealing directly with end users? Clearly this has nothing to do with security, as businesses likely hold more sensitive data such as bank account details, and is more to do with Trumps fallout with young users of TikTok who embarrassed him at his first rally earlier this year by not attending.

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Foreign Exchange Trading / Re: EUR/TRY
« Last post by PipMeHappy on Today at 12:56:14 PM »
tempted to join you in this trade but I'll leave it until next week. I prefer not trading Friday if I can help it.

Quite right, Ben!

Closed EURTRY for just inder a +500 P/L as I had added a 20-perioed EMA to see if it
would cross back over it as it turned lower, but it has continued down.

Meanwhile the DXY is rallying and EURUSD has responded so I have gone
short Euro with a 20-pip target on a 2M position, worth just over 3k.

Changing conditions in a tight market space are precious and short lived, so
I am trying to find new opportunities this way.
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Chapter 39: "Being Right or Making Money" ...

This one is for all traders out there...

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Foreign Exchange Trading / Re: EUR/TRY
« Last post by BWS on Today at 10:41:09 AM »
tempted to join you in this trade but I'll leave it until next week. I prefer not trading Friday if I can help it.
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Foreign Exchange Trading / Re: EUR/TRY
« Last post by PipMeHappy on Today at 10:24:51 AM »
Hello traders!

The EUR/TRY is breaking all records... the central bank of Turkey does not meet until next week (24th) but both USDTRY and especially EURTRY are soaring...

My RSI play has failed before (twice I went short at a major stalling level) so I have now decided to join the rally...

I am in a 750k position and currently up at 1.3k gross profit.

My USD (DXY) long is stalling again after a promising rally since yesterday, so although it seems that historically these two instruments have been inversely related, I am currently looking more in the shorter term since Covid and they are possibly more aligned...

EUR/TRY is acting as its own agent, disregarding both USD weakness AND Euro weakness, as well a floundering risk-on sentiment from a stalling S&P500, so it is a long worth its own journey...

Should the DXY align with USD/TRY then I will have potentially two winning positions; if the DXY continued to stall, I could count on the EUR/TRY gains.... It is an intraday play so I will close EUR/TRY at or even slightly before target while I wait for the DXY long to play out.

Happy trading
PipMeHappy
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Indicators / Re: Popular Indicators
« Last post by BWS on Today at 09:45:10 AM »
Some very good comments here, its pleasing to see traders applying some thought instead of just following the herd and treating indicators as some sacred cow.
Ive always thought the name 'indicators' is in itself misleading since this implies some predictive power, which of course there is not.
Useful tools, as humans we have habits of repetition, but no more than that. They SMA's help show direction and help identify trends, but with practice I would have though most traders could see this for themselves.
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Analysts Section / Re: Market Cycle Theory: USD index video.
« Last post by PipMeHappy on Today at 09:10:05 AM »
Hello Eddie,

thanks for that... Patterns like Fibonacci or cycle waves are meaningless unless one can look at the number of instances where they failed and then get a clearer sense of whether they are just retrofitted niceties or have actual predictive value.

Also, I agree with you that these patterns have no meaning if taken over such long term horizons because for the everyday trader they do not necessarily provide actionable trades... However, as we are in some instances (like the USD index) at
major market turning points, it is important to see if a wide-angle lens may provide us with a sense of general probability of trend in either direction, or indeed of no trend.

As the USD is in the mid-phase of the wider cycle wave, as shown in my video, it could either continue beyond the wave period at that level or conform and follow the wave down to its trough, in the medium term (e.g. from the end of 2020): this is a more actionable idea as it is potentially shaping up in the next three months or so...

I have read and listened to the market business cycle from the Austrian economists' perspective - Von Mises and the Mises Institute have a lot of free materials on this - but not actually as a chartable theory in practice... There is definitely more to be learnt here...

Namaste back at you
PipMe
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