NotTheNoobs

Trading Central => Trading-related Topics => Topic started by: Caesar on March 25, 2020, 01:49:20 PM

Title: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on March 25, 2020, 01:49:20 PM
UK consumer price inflation slipped back in February from a six-month high it had reached the month before, reflecting a drop in the cost of fuel and video games that predated the massive current impact of coronavirus on the economy.

CPI fell to 1.7% in February from 1.8% in January, official figures showed on Wednesday, in line with forecasts in a Reuters poll, while a core measure of the index - which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco - unexpectedly rose to 1.7%.

Inflation remains well below the Bank of England's 2% target, after striking its lowest in more than three years in December at 1.3%, and there was little immediate market reaction to the data.

Retail price inflation, an older, less accurate measure still used for inflation-linked government bonds and some commercial contracts, fell to 2.5% from 2.7% in January.

Producer output price inflation - a measure which can give a guide to incoming inflation pressures - slowed more than expected to 0.4% in February from 1.0% in January.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: eddieb on April 02, 2020, 03:58:56 PM
Error, sorry
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on May 13, 2020, 08:31:20 AM
The Office for National Statistics says that the UK economy shrank by 2% in Q1 following a 5.8% drop in March.
Bearing in mind that the lockdown didn't come in until the 24th March,  Q2 could be a much larger drop.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on May 20, 2020, 11:28:40 AM
UK consumer price inflation slowed to 0.8 per cent in April from 1.5 per cent in March. with the bulk of the decline due to lower oil prices.

Schemes to help the economy  support purchasing power – it may take some months for inflation to bottom as the economy goes through a painful readjustment. Input prices for manufacturers declined 5.1 per cent, whilst factory gate prices were 0.7 per cent lower. 

What comes next is anyone’s guess, but inflation could be round the corner as central banks and governments deal with vast debts. Retailers will be at the coalface when it comes to inflation. Big discounts are expected as shops reopen over the summer – better to clear the old lines than having a bunch of shorts and bikinis to scrap, but when new stocks start arriving I think we csn expect these to come at higher than pre-Covid prices as manufacturers,  freighters,  and retailers all look to claw back some profits
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on June 05, 2020, 11:37:07 AM
We should get some idea next Friday of the impact of the lockdown on the economy, when the Office for National Statistics release Aprils GDP numbers.
Also next week, the Bank of England publish their survey of household inflation expectations.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on June 12, 2020, 07:44:58 AM
Not the best way to start Friday following 2 dreadful days for the stock market
https://metro.co.uk/2020/06/12/uk-economy-plunged-20-first-month-lockdown-12841484/
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on June 12, 2020, 10:07:38 AM
Next weeks data and reports to keep a look out for include;

Tuesday - the Office for National Statistics is likely to report that unemployment rose sharply in April, no surprise there but the actual figure will be interesting
Wednesday - figures are expected to show output prices down around 1 per cent year on year. For now, however, this is the benign sort of deflation – the product of falling input prices. These are likely to be some 10 per cent lower than a year ago.

In the US, retail and production numbers are expected to be close to April. A big drop would be a bad sign and could trigger selling.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on June 18, 2020, 02:11:03 PM
Bank of England have announced that they will put another £100bn into the economy to support it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53093127
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: eddieb on June 25, 2020, 02:31:14 PM
I see the Footsie  has fallen again  today,  although it just managed to stay above  6000.
My shares have taken a hit this week, but if governments  can show they are better prepared  for Covid  phase 2 than they were for  phase 1 things should  turn  around
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on June 25, 2020, 03:46:30 PM
There's  been a  bit of a pick  up  this afternoon,  possibly  traders picking  up bargains,  possibly a realisation  that the world  is  better prepared  for a 2nd wave of Covid  than we were for the first, plus its likely  governments will target areas that spike rather than reimpose a blanket lockdown
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on July 14, 2020, 08:54:26 AM
Reuters say there was a slight upturn in the UK economy in May, with gap rising 1.8% after April's 20% drop.

They say this is likely a reflection of pent up demand rather than government policies or signs of a sustained recovery.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: BWS on August 06, 2020, 08:54:51 AM
Some fairly neutral/positive reports from the Bank Of England this morning.
Rates staying at 0.10% as expected, MPC vote unchanged at 9. The BoE are forecasting a slower-than-expected exit from the Covid but again that is hardly a surprise. They now do not expect recovery to late 2019 levels until Q3 of 2021.
There has been slight selling off of UK shares, but nothing huge, FTSE stands at 6055, 0.75% down.


Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: eddieb on August 12, 2020, 08:24:19 AM
Unsurprisingly, the UK is now officially in recession
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53748278
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: eddieb on September 01, 2020, 04:34:12 PM
The EU have asked that after Dec 31st any subsidies that the UK choose to offer companies or sectors of its economy should be in line with the equivalent EU subsidy.

Understandably, the UK have refused to agree to this and have said that they will leave without a trade agreement if the EU insist on this. This is at least part of the reason for the very poor start today for UK shares.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: BWS on September 04, 2020, 09:28:07 AM
A bit of good news for the economy. The Government have announced that phase 1 of HS2 starts today. A £45billion project, its expected to create 22,000 jobs over the next 2 years and up to 400,000 supply chain opportunities for UK businesses.

Greater London alone is expected to get 10,000 new jobs from this.

Further good news, contractors Mace Dragados start work on London Euston station this month, 3,000 new jobs there and Skanska Costain Strabag expect 4,800 new jobs for its contract for tunnel sections at Euston and Northolt.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Caesar on September 21, 2020, 11:55:53 AM
This, and the continuing fiasco called Brexit, is hammering the UK this past few days.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/20/london-could-face-new-coronavirus-restrictions-within-days-hancock-says-13299993/

How much and how long the lock down is will affect consumer and business confidence for a long time.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: eddieb on September 24, 2020, 08:10:39 AM
The Chancellor has cancelled his Autumn budget and is focusing on finding ways to replace the furlough scheme without losing too many jobs.
There should be an announcement later today
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: BWS on September 30, 2020, 10:49:10 AM
A bit of good news for the High Street. Supermarket chain Morrisons have announced they are creating 1000 new jobs to handle the uptick in business created by their link up with Amazon.
For those of you unaware, since 2016 a lot of Morrison stores have collection points for local Amazon customers who cannot have deliveries to their homes.
Amazon have now expanded its relationship with Morrisons so Prime members have access to its full range on the internet giant's main website.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: Michael on October 06, 2020, 09:31:45 AM
Hello.
Not sure if this is the right place for this post, but it could be a game changer for the construction industry and an end to the famous 'builders bum' that most of us have had the misfortune to see at one time or other
https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/10/06/uks-first-home-built-by-robo-bricklayer/
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: BWS on October 07, 2020, 03:29:14 PM
Hello.
Not sure if this is the right place for this post, but it could be a game changer for the construction industry and an end to the famous 'builders bum' that most of us have had the misfortune to see at one time or other
https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/10/06/uks-first-home-built-by-robo-bricklayer/

Interesting post Michael. It seems more and more jobs are being automated, and with AI starting to appear more this is a trend that will likely increase. Good for the employers who can reduce staffing costs, but bad for the people who find the jobs redundant.
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: eddieb on October 12, 2020, 08:39:37 AM
Unemployment figures due out tomorrow are expected to show a rise from last month, but the real impact from covid won't really start coming through until next month when we have the first set of numbers following the end of the chancellors original furlough scheme.


Namaste
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: eddieb on October 12, 2020, 08:41:57 AM
I should also add, prime minister is expected to announce today the most severe lockdown measures in months.
North of England is expected to be hit hardest, its imperative that London is kept open regardless because of its affect on the economy as a whole
Title: Re: UK economy
Post by: BWS on November 19, 2020, 10:23:19 AM
A report by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) says the 14%, or about 1 in 7, UK companies have little or no confidwence that they will survive the next 3 months. Even allowing for understandable degrees of pessimism in the current climate, thats a potentially huge problem ahead.
The same report also says 9% of the UK workforce was on furlough in the first 2 weeks of November.