Trading Central => Trading-related Topics => Topic started by: Caesar on November 03, 2019, 05:36:28 PM

Title: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on November 03, 2019, 05:36:28 PM
Found this today and thought it was interesting.
Would love to see comparable charts from 5/10  years ago
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Kaitsu on November 03, 2019, 08:08:43 PM
That is an interesting and clever presentation!
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: eddieb on November 04, 2019, 10:31:45 PM
The beauty of it is in its simplicity.  A lot of information presented in a very clear an obvious way. Even the most illiterate could see which segments of the ball are larger than others.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on March 25, 2020, 07:51:59 PM
Most European markets finished up today.
The FTSE gained 4% and now looks set to go for 5700, a level not reached since 13th March.
German DAX followed yesterdays 11% jump with another 1%.

In the US 1-month and 3-month yields turned negative – it’s the first time we have seen negative rates in the US, although of course fed funds rates remain positive. The Federal Reserve’s massive dose of stimulus and unlimited QE has crushed yields at the short end of the curve.

Tomorrows US jobless figures will likely prove to be market-movers one way or the other. Usually in the thousands, there are fears it could be in the millions this week due to the government shutdown. Consensus suggests a 1.5m print – way ahead of the usual numbers which trend about 200k week to week. Morgan Stanley has estimated in excess of 3m. Last week’s print rose to 281k from 211k a week before but the real impact of the coronavirus is to hit.
In Canada, according to Justin Trudeau, a million Canadians applied for jobless benefits last week – extrapolate that to the US and we could be in for true shocker of a print tomorrow.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on March 26, 2020, 01:17:36 PM
The latest US unemployment numbers were predicted to be catastrophic.

The actual total, 3.3 million, turned out to be even worse than expected.

The record-breaking amount reflects a US economy put into deep-freeze almost overnight. The government-ordered shutdown hasn’t just shuttered businesses temporarily, it has vapourised the jobs of millions of Americans – many of whom are the particularly vulnerable hourly service workers who live paycheque to paycheque.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on March 27, 2020, 01:51:59 PM
After yesterdays rises across the globe,  it didn't come as muvhvof a surprise to see prices falling back today as traders take some profits ahead of the weekend.

Things are clearly stabilising,  but there are still questions to be answered plus we don't know how long or how deep this virus will continue.

Still a bumpy road ahead for the foreseeable future
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on April 01, 2020, 08:29:45 PM
Beginning to think that, when we finally come out of this situation, it is going to be a different world to before.
Working from home seems to be working out fairly smoothing for many, especially former office workers.  As IT departments find more efficient ways of using this technology and, perhaps more importantly for employers, find better ways to monitor employees work behaviour, the potential savings in office space and associated costs might mean an end to travelling to the office every day for many.
This in turn would have repercussions for transport providers facing reduced transport use, garages selling less fuel, even sandwich shops and restaurants having fewer lunchtime customers.

Cinemas may close as customers who have signed up to streaming services no longer visit them, preferring to maximise their subscriptions instead.

Its a virtual certainty that many industries will see mass consolidation,  resulting in less choice for consumers.  Airlines and cruise lines spring to mind.

There will be new opportunities,  possibly disruptors even, who benefit and we have to hope that this turns out to be a watershed that changes society,  ultimately,  for the better.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: eddieb on April 02, 2020, 04:31:38 PM
US unemployment has shot up again,  by another 6.6 million to around 10 million

Thats a lot of households struggling to survive
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on April 09, 2020, 07:52:39 AM
Most Asian markets were up this morning,  the stand-out exception being Japans Nikkei on news that Japan have declared a state of emergency following rises in coronavirus cases.

Need to keep an eye on China though, any hint of a second wave of the virus will not only affect Asian, but global markets
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Kaitsu on April 09, 2020, 08:48:31 AM
Most Asian markets were up this morning,
There is a strange contradiction at present in the coronavirus environment.

On one side we are seeing stock markets recovering and some countries already talking of being past the peak and planning the removal of restrictions.

On the other side, we are hearing considerable economic "doomsday" scenarios from senior figures in economics and markets. Talking about being on the brink of the worst economic recession in living memory, etc.

Most of the global financial and governmental institutions seem to be agreeing enormous sums of money to rescue and protect businesses and hopefully turn this into a steep "V" shaped economic phenomena whereby we quickly rise to where we were before outbreak. That may well happen, but the economists are reminding us that these humungously large borrowings will have to be repaid - and repaid by the upcoming generations. How is that going to fit into a growing economy if workers are burdened with heavy taxations to pay for these debts?

I am also wondering how the rating agencies such as Standard and Poors are going to have to adjust their models because these additional borrowings by some countries will, by some measures and ratios, reclassify them as junk risk based on current models!
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on April 14, 2020, 10:47:40 AM
After better than expected numbers from China, Asian markets opened positively today.
China's exports 'only' fell 6.6% in March (-14% was expected) and imports only fell by 0.9%, against an expected 9.5%.

Looking forward, it looks like lockdowns are with us for a while. France are closed until May 11th at the earliest, India until May 3rd (which I personally think is way too soon), and the UK look likely to extend until May 7th or beyond. In the USA, Trump is already talking about, and pushing governors for, reopening parts of the economy despite a growing 22,000 deaths.

Opec have agreed to cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day over the next 2 months. The oil price is still wavering, with no real movement in either direction yet.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on April 17, 2020, 09:37:53 AM
China gdp fell for the first time since at least 1992 by -6.8% year on year
Retail sales down c16%, production only fell 1.1%. Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets reacted well to this news

Separately,  Wuhan region revised up its covid 19 deaths by c50%, citing not all the early deaths were recorded as covid 19 and only hospital deaths had been counted,  as is the case in the UK
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on April 23, 2020, 01:49:51 PM
Another 4.4 million unemployed in the US according to todays figures, taking the total to over 20 million.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on April 29, 2020, 10:24:56 PM
The US unemployment figures just keep rising.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on May 06, 2020, 09:50:49 AM
Germany’s top court laid down a challenge to the European Union: who is the final arbiter in European law? German judges think the ECB needs to show buying bonds under QE was proportionate. They have 3 months to comply.
The ECB central bank said it ‘takes note’ of the judgment by the German Federal Constitutional Court but remains ‘fully committed’ to its price stability mandate. Finally, it added simply: “The Court of Justice of the European Union ruled in December 2018 that the ECB is acting within its price stability mandate.” Quite clearly the German court cannot overrule the ECJ – that's the whole point, it’s why the UK wanted out.
Italy’s PM Conte agrees, noting that ECB independence is at the heart of European treaties.The euro has held onto losses to test the 1.0820 level this morning, as German factory orders declined 15.6 per cent, more than the 10 per cent expected.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: eddieb on May 07, 2020, 01:58:45 PM
I read this online earlier today, a bit concerning.

Comments by Minneapolis Fed president, Neel Kashkari

    Bad jobs report would understate damage because many people are not looking for work
    Thinks that true unemployment rate is 23% to 24%
    But report likely to show a lower number
    Says can avoid depression scenario but US is in for a long gradual recovery
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on May 11, 2020, 01:30:56 PM
Looks like  more bad job news is expected.

White House economic advisers said Sunday that the US is likely to see "very difficult" unemployment numbers in May, with unemployment rates nearing 20%.

Last month, as the US continued to battle the coronavirus, the country saw the unemployment rate jump to 14.7% with a devastating loss of 20.5 million jobs, according to a report released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The disappointing figures for April are the worst the US has seen since the Great Depression and are particularly shocking when compared to those in February when unemployment was at a 50-year low of 3.5%.

Considering the global state of economies, its amazing there isnt more panic evident
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on May 11, 2020, 02:47:46 PM
From yesterday's newspapers

Bank of England warn of possibly worst UK recession in 300 years. Output could fall 30% in first half of this year and 2 million to lose their jobs.

Spains services sector show  reading of 7.1 for April- anything below 50 is contraction and this is a long way below 50.

Germany says industrial production fell 9.2% in March,  more than expected.

France statistics show economy running at 33% of normal levels.

Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on May 22, 2020, 09:53:08 AM
US initial jobless claims came in at 2.4m as expected and was the lowest reading since March. It takes the total jobs lost since the crisis began to almost 39million.

As various US states reopen and business gets going again, we ought to see hiring exceed firing. The key will be how swiftly the hiring replaces lost jobs – it’s hard to see the 39m being replaced as quickly as they were lost. Temporary layoffs will become permanent as businesses slowly reopen and find demand down and cash flow a problem
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on May 25, 2020, 07:59:18 AM
As if we didn't already have enough to contend with, Chinas proposed new legislation for Hong Kong sent the HK market spinning down 5% on Friday.
With all the rhetoric from the West over the weekend,  don't be surprised if European,  UK, and US markets fall when they reopen.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on May 28, 2020, 04:29:36 PM
In the USA, 40.8 million people have now filed for unemployment benefits through state programs over the past ten weeks, according to figures released by the Labor Department today. The 2.1 million claims filed last week marks the eighth straight week in a row that unemployment filings declined after they historically peaked at 6.9 million for the week ending on March 28.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on June 05, 2020, 11:42:28 AM
Next Monday (8th) Germany release figures that are expected to confirm industrial production has plummeted, and by Friday we should have the rest of the EU's corresponding figures.
On a more positive note, China are expected to show around 6% growth in money supply and the Fed should confirm that rates in the US will remain close to zero for some time.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on June 05, 2020, 01:56:23 PM
The dollar gains after May's US non-farm payrolls report far exceeded analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in April while payrolls rose by 2.5 million, according to the Labor Department. Economists polled by the WSJ expected payrolls to fall by 8.3 million and the jobless rate to rise to 19.5%. The dollar index rises 0.2% to 96.8630, compared to 96.6880 before the data. EUR/USD falls 0.2% to 1.1307 versus 1.1335 beforehand. (
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on June 08, 2020, 09:33:16 PM
The economic downturn in the US triggered by the pandemic has been officially declared a recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research made the designation on Tuesday, citing the scale and severity of the current contraction.

It said activity and employment hit a "clear" and "well-defined" peak in February, before falling.

The ruling puts a formal end to what had been more than a decade of expansion - the longest in US history
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on June 10, 2020, 01:12:01 PM
Chinese inflation figures were soft, with producer prices down 3.7 per cent, the worst drop in four years, and consumer prices rising by 2.4 per cent, down from 3.3 per cent in April.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on June 10, 2020, 08:45:07 PM
America's central bank will continue actions designed to shore up the US economy, but warned of "considerable risks" posed by coronavirus.

The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates toward zero at the onset of the pandemic and has pledged to maintain low rates until the economy is back on track.

Policymakers on Wednesday said they expected to keep rates low until the end of 2022.

The report sent US shares higher.

Financial markets have rallied since March, a rebound that some analysts say has been facilitated by the Fed's aggressive response to the health and economic crisis.

It has pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system, buying up US Treasuries and other assets to encourage banks to keep lending and prevent a market collapse.

It has also stepped in with new programmes to lend to small and medium-sized firms and buy corporate and municipal debt.

The Fed on Wednesday said financial conditions had improved but that it would continue asset purchases at the current levels.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: Caesar on June 19, 2020, 09:53:55 AM
US retail sales are estimated to have risen by 17.7 per cent during May 2020, to €486bn. This follows on from a 14.7 per cent contraction in April to $413bn.
It is still early days and we could very easily see a second wave of Covid-19, but it is encouraging.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: eddieb on August 13, 2020, 09:18:49 AM
Traders may wish to keep an eye on the US jobless claims numbers which are out at 1:30pm today.
Forecast is for 1.120k against last weeks 1.186k. The general trend over the past 5/6 weeks has been downward, and a continuation of this would boost the dollar. Conversely, a number higher than forecast would probably cause it to fall.

Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: eddieb on September 11, 2020, 07:48:27 AM
S&P lost 1.77% yesterday, Nasdaq 1.99%, and Tokyo made a sluggish start this morning as globally shares continued to drop.
All eyes on the first few hours in Europe and the UK to see if this continues.
Title: Re: Global Economy
Post by: eddieb on October 20, 2020, 01:02:12 PM
Saw this reported today.

The International Monetary Fund said last week it expects the Chinese economy to grow 1.9% this year, while every other G20 economy is set to shrink.
New numbers this week out of Beijing suggest that that might even be too pessimistic: Chinese gross domestic product was up 4.9% from a year earlier in the third quarter and was up 2.7% from the second quarter. Encouragingly, both industrial production and retail sales ended the quarter with growing momentum, posting their best growth since the pandemic struck.
Even allowing for China’s traditional ability to generate the kind of GDP statistics it wants, the picture is too clear to ignore: the draconian clampdown on public life in January and February has allowed a more vigorous recovery than anywhere else in the world.