NotTheNoobs

Trading Central => Trading-related Topics => Topic started by: Kaitsu on September 22, 2019, 03:25:33 PM

Title: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on September 22, 2019, 03:25:33 PM
This is an ongoing thread highlighting what are the key issues currently likely to affect our markets. Hopefully everyone will add their insights as we go.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on September 22, 2019, 03:35:11 PM
The upcoming week 23-27 Sept is rather thin on economic releases but some things to look out for:

- the decision from the UK Supreme Court regarding the legality of Boris Johnson's prorogation of parliament

- EU/UK Brexit meetings and comments (negotiators meeting)

- further developments between US, Saudi Arabia and Iran

- comments/tweets regarding the US-China trade negotiations coming up in October

In general, EURUSD has been rather directionless, and GBP has tried to do better against other currencies. Oil is in a state of confusion bordered by slow economic growth on one hand and threats of war and outages on the other. The SP500 is near its record highs from July this year but seems stalled here.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kim on September 22, 2019, 09:35:28 PM
The US/Saudi/Iran and US/China issues are complicated by Trump having to be aware of any negative impact his actions may have on next years elections
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on September 23, 2019, 12:23:59 PM
The US/Saudi/Iran and US/China issues are complicated by Trump having to be aware of any negative impact his actions may have on next years elections

Yes, and that is most certainly an important matter with respect to deploying troops to the middle east. Mr Trump is a businessman and is not interested in prolonged wars. He prefers to play the deals. His interests are a strong domestic stock market, low interest rates, low energy prices, and a competitive value for the dollar.

But the trade war with China is beginning to hurt some sectors of the US economy and some of its regions and is pushing some voter loyalties to the limit right now.  As the election campaigning gets nearer and stronger we are likely to see greater focus on bringing home the goodies (rather than the body bags from some distant war).
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on September 23, 2019, 04:15:46 PM
Sterling is , by recent standards at least, treading water while the politicians comment and counter one another on Brexit. Factor in that we are now into Party Conference season, and things are pretty well just drifting along.
Not a great time to be betting your house on Sterling moving in any particular direction.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on September 24, 2019, 06:47:33 AM
The UK Supreme Court will be announcing their verdict this morning on whether the UK parliamentary suspension was unlawful.

If it is found to be illegal then parliament may well be reinstated, opening up fresh debating and pressures on Boris Johnson's plans for a 31.10. exit.

Expect some volatile activity in GBP-based currency pairs and FTSE as no one knows what a resumption of parliament would actually achieve.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on September 24, 2019, 07:17:27 AM
Personally, I would be surprised if they found it unlawful. However, if they did it would bring pressure to bear on Johnson to resign.
Could be an interesting day
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on September 25, 2019, 08:25:04 PM
Well, not only found to be unlawful but a unanimous verdict of all 11 judges.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2019, 07:08:07 AM
Week 7.-11.10

Looks like another unpredictable, politically- driven week lies ahead.

Although no one yet seriously considers the Senate would end up with a 2/3rd majority in any impeachment trial, the impeachment drive against Mr Trump continues and deepens, now with a second "whistleblower" appearing and more documents to be released for scrutiny.

US-Nth Korea talks in Sweden got nowhere and terminated prematurely.

PM Boris Johnson and French President Macron also met and continued the EU-UK stare-out to see who blinks first before the 31.10. deadline. More comments likely during this week and possible negotiation developments on the UK's new proposals.

Can expect some lubricating comments on the upcoming US-China trade talks, most likely upbeat in market terms.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell speaks on occasions during the week prior to the release of the FOMC minutes on Weds 9.10. Also BoE 's governor, Mark Carney speaks on Tues.

The usual calendar releases, including US CPI on Friday.

In general, it seems the key sentiment of markets is focused on any signs of further economic weakness around the globe. The US remains strong and with high employment levels, but cracks are now beginning to appear there, too. Which suggests particular attention will be given to Jerome Powell's comments during the week.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kim on October 07, 2019, 07:33:55 AM
I don’t think we will see any US-China trade agreement this side of the election, it’s not in China’s interest to give Trump anything he can spin as a success to the voters.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2019, 07:47:21 AM
I don’t think we will see any US-China trade agreement this side of the election, it’s not in China’s interest to give Trump anything he can spin as a success to the voters.
That is very possible. And means markets will be very uncertain across the board for a long time still to come.

Mr Trump is very good at starting large, aggressive and sweeping battles all over the globe, but as next year's elections loom ever larger on the radar, people will start to look for the results and benefits from these political and economic forest fires.

So far heavy sanctions and tariffs have been directed towards Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, and now renewed tariffs against the EU, and others. But, apart from the Mexico/Canada trade agreement, there are few bull-eyes chalked up on the scoreboard. The US agricultural industry is suffering and manufacturing is showing cracks. So there is a need for some results in the near future but the question is who will end up conceding to whom to achieve these?
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on October 12, 2019, 07:41:40 AM
Week 7.-11.10

Looks like another unpredictable, politically- driven week lies ahead.

And looks like that is what we got. There are a lot of major things coming together at the same time but nothing concrete has yet surfaced.

The US-China negotiations followed the normal "Trump" formula. First show the big stick (possible new sanctions related to human rights issues), then a carrot that is not actually a carrot at all (postponing, not cancelling, imminent increases in tariffs), then praising China as his best friends in a new "Lovefest".  But nothing concrete or contractual yet.

The EU-UK Brexit talks are looking far more positive than we have seen for a long time with a lot of encouraging comments from both sides, but nothing concrete or contractual yet.

In the meantime, Mr Trump is getting busy with threats of new tariffs against his other economic enemy, the EU, as well a new economic battleground with Turkey following the withdrawal of US troops from Kurdish Syria.

But despite the increased US visibility in global matters, the domestic issues such as impeachment are not going away.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on October 14, 2019, 07:07:31 AM
Week 14.-18.10

On one hand this promises to be an eventful week with many defining events on a number of fronts. But on the other hand it is likely to be an extremely difficult week to actually trade.

UK:
Today, Monday, is pageantry day in the UK with the Queen's Speech in the House of Lords. This speech will outline 22 new bills that form the government's plans post-Brexit, which is still assumed to happen on 31.10.

Whilst it is refreshing to hear talk on other subjects than just Brexit, it is rather meaningless coming from a government that is not really a government at all with such a significant parliamentary minority and a strong likelihood of a general election in the near future.

So the UK is most likely this week to be totally focused on the final Brexit negotiations with the EU in the run up to the summit at the end of the week and UK parliament meeting on Sat. So the GBP is likely to be reacting to news and rumours as and when they appear.

US
A lot of good news was built into the markets late last week based on the reported successful completion of a "Phase 1" of a US-China trade agreement. But nothing is yet in writing and it is too soon for hype about a "stage 2". So markets may well be back to watching for signs of the global slowdown both in the US and around the globe, especially in China.

Domestically, the impeachment enquiries will continue and probably intensify and, of course, the rhetoric will sharpen accordingly.

The decision to withdraw US troops from Syria and the subsequent invasion by Turkey is a potentially significant event, especially with news that Syrian government forces are being sent to face the Turkish forces. This is yet another destabilising event in the Middle East alongside the SA and Iran issues.

But it is also a destabilising issue within the EU as well. Turkey, a NATO country, is sending defiant messages to both the US and the EU which, from a trading perspective, only serves to blur the underlying traditional currency fundamentals.

EUR
I still find it difficult to identify specific issues relating to the Euro when its pair currencies have such strong issues of their own, such as the GBP. I am sure that Brexit is going to be the top issue for this week at least and the other issues in the end-of-week summit will take second place from a currency perspective.

I don't personally follow the Far East markets very closely, so if anyone else wants to add something about those then please do so! :D

 
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on October 14, 2019, 07:34:26 AM
Asian markets
Asian markets in general have been badly affected this year by the China-USA spat and by a slowing down of the Chinese economy on which a lot of them are heavily connected.
However,  talk of an improved outlook in the China-USA trade talks improved sentiment last week.
Having narrowly avoided recession, Singapore eased monetary policy for the first time in 3 years.

There is a lot of high-impact data due from China during the course of today,  worth keeping an eye on our Economic Calendar for these as they are released
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on October 16, 2019, 06:18:31 PM
It looks like we can't expect resolution of the China-US trade talks until mid-November at the earliest

https://m.investing.com/news/economy/trump-says-likely-wont-sign-china-trade-deal-until-he-meets-with-xi-1997147
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on October 18, 2019, 08:02:55 AM
Asian Markets update

Focus yesterday was on China's Q3 GDP figures which, although narrowly missing forecast (6.0 v 6.1) was still regarded as a strong number.
AudUsd and UsdJpy barely changed on this data. Separately,  Japan announced inflation figures at a 30 month low
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on October 20, 2019, 05:45:39 PM
Week 21.-25.10

Centre stage this week must surely be the issue of Boris Johnson's freshly negotiated deal with the EU and whether it is accepted in the UK parliament.

The voting is definitely going to be very close again and there is no way of predicting its outcome when there are so many parties involved.

An indication of the closeness in voting is apparent in the results of the vote for the amendment on Saturday that led to the postponement of the vote for the deal itself. It passed by 322 votes to 306. In other words only 9-10 votes in the other direction would have been enough to give a different verdict.

The conservatives have a significant minority and therefore in order to get their deal passed they need votes from other groups:

The DUP, which on Saturday still claimed they would vote against it
The ex-Conservative (sacked) independents, who now apparently are mostly go to support the deal
The Labour rebels and ex-Labour andother independents - unknown 
Liberal Democrats who are most likely all against the deal
The SNP who are almost certainly entirely against the deal

This could go either way, which means the GBP and EUR could see some erratic volatility early in the week and then maybe even stagnation as the vote gets closer.

Will Brexit finally be resolved during this week? Or will the EU end up having to decide whether to grant a further extension and a general election declared in the UK?


Alongside this and very much in its shadow will be further economic data releases reflecting the state of the economies around the globe and some Central Bank interest rate issues.

And then we still have the continuing US impeachment proceedings. And maybe deepening scandals relating to the Turkish Halkbank bank and its alleged money laundering of illicit Iranian oil sales and possible ties with Donald Trump's attorney, Rudy Giuliani.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on October 20, 2019, 06:40:50 PM
Asian Markets

Reuters reported that China’s top central banker said on Saturday that potential escalation of trade tensions and policy uncertainty were the major risk factors facing the world economy, and market forces were keeping China’s yuan at an appropriate level.

His statement said that the depreciation in the yuan since the beginning of August has been driven by market forces, including volatility prompted by escalating trade tensions. Yi added that there was “growing market acceptance for two-way exchange rate fluctuations” in the yuan, also known as the renminbi or RMB.

In a dig at the Trump administration’s “America First” trade stance, Yi said: “the wave of populism and protectionism in some countries has undermined mutual trust, reducing their willingness to cooperate on a multilateral basis.”

To my ear, that doesn't sound like a China-US trade deal is anywhere near close.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on October 21, 2019, 08:10:31 AM
I think we can expect some volatility today in any Sterling pairs as BJ tries to get his deal passed.
I'm watching from the sidelines again today

Namaste
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on October 28, 2019, 06:52:01 AM
Week 28.10.-1.11

Lots happening this week!

Centre stage, as usual, is Brexit. Today, Monday, should determine if we are going to have a general election in December, and how far the EU is prepared to extend the Brexit deadline and with what options and/or conditions. The answers to those questions will also determine the future handling of the WAB and the current UK/EU deal.

This week is also dominated by the central banks with three of them making interest rate decisions. EU Draghi is talking today and then mid-week sees the Canadian central bank and US Fed interest rate decisions, followed by Bank of Japan on Thursday.

And to end the week, we have the over-hyped US non-farm payrolls data on Friday.

My focus for this week is for possible new highs on SP500 and looking to buy any dips early on. And possible continuation of strength for the GBP against either USD or JPY. But although the longer term charts are still positive, I do not have a buy signal from my hourly chart yet for either of these (which are currently almost identical charts), so I am sidelined with crosshairs on the hourly.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on October 28, 2019, 06:27:03 PM
My focus for this week is for possible new highs on SP500 and looking to buy any dips early on. And possible continuation of strength for the GBP against either USD or JPY. But although the longer term charts are still positive, I do not have a buy signal from my hourly chart yet for either of these (which are currently almost identical charts), so I am sidelined with crosshairs on the hourly.
Well, got  a long trade out of GBPJPY but the SP500 left upwards without me on board, unfortunately! Being a Monday, I was expecting at least some kind of pullback, but price just hung around the highs from last week and then just took off. It happens!
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on October 31, 2019, 07:49:14 AM
Asian Markets

Asian markets trading was mixed on yesterday after the US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates for the third time this year, while the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged. On the trade front, China's Commerce Ministry said that trade talks with Washington are going well despite Chile's decision to cancel the APEC summit. Data showed a decrease in China's composite PMI in October while the Japanese government announced an increase in consumer confidence in the country.

The Nikkei 225 ended with gains of 0.37%. Meanwhile, in mainland China, the Shenzhen Composite was down 0.46% at 7:51 am CET and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.44% at 7:50 am CET. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.71% at 7:52 am CET. South Korea's Kospi ended 0.17% higher and the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia finished the day 0.39% down.

The dollar lost 0.16% against the yen to go for 108.6755 at 7:57 am ET.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 01, 2019, 10:04:10 AM
South China Morning Post reported today that;
"China takes further steps to stabilise yuan to aid trade war deal with US$4.3 billion bill sale in Hong Kong

Efforts by China to stabilise the yuan exchange rate may facilitate the signing of a phase one trade deal the United States, analysts say China will sell a total of 30 billion yuan (US$4.3 billion) in yuan-denominated securities in Hong Kong on Thursday

The latest move, announced on Friday by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), will see a total of 30 billion yuan (US$4.3 billion) in yuan-denominated securities
sold in Hong Kong next week. This a widely used method to push up investors’ borrowing costs, making it more expensive for speculators to bet that the yuan will fall.

The announcement came just ahead of a planned phone call between the top US and Chinese trade negotiators later on Friday to continue efforts to finalise the details of the interim trade pact.
Among other things, the two sides are likely to discuss a new venue for the signing of the deal after the sudden cancellation of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Chile disrupted the previous arrangement for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump to meet on November 17."
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 01, 2019, 10:23:44 AM
Non-Farm Payrolls

Don't forget the US non-farm payrolls are out later today!
Might be worth thinking about closing positions if your stops are on the tight side, we all know how much the charts can whipsaw in the run up to this being released
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 01, 2019, 01:06:33 PM
Cracking job numbers from the USA.  128, 000 against expectations of 85, 000
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 01, 2019, 01:09:28 PM
China rolling out 5g across 50 cities,  worlds largest 5g network.
Great news for smart cars in China, gives them a huge advantage over the West
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 01, 2019, 01:49:36 PM
Dax is on a bit of a charge,  testing highs.
Currently sitting at 12970. Can it breach 13000?
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 03, 2019, 08:50:29 PM
It could be an interesting week ahead for traders.

Christine Lagarde will make her first speech as ECB head tomorrow (Monday), and it is sure to be scrutinised to see if there are any clues as to future policy changes.

BofE new Monetary Policy Report is out on Thursday and traders will be listening for any changes or concerns following last weeks Election announcement.

And then there is the various ongoing issues from the US, impeachment,  trade talks, etc.

Keep an eye on our Economic Calendar for other events,  RBA decision,  Japan market holiday,  etc
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 04, 2019, 12:06:15 PM
A decent enough start to the week,  a lot of green on show
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 04, 2019, 08:39:52 PM
AudUsd
With the RBA interest rates decision coming up, perhaps this pair is worth a look.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 05, 2019, 07:45:23 AM
The RBA decided to hold its interest rates in line with expectations, adding that the Australian economy had not changed in the previous 3 months.
The expect their economy to grow by 2.25% in 2020, increasing to 3% in 2021.
The markets responded well to this, with the Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68864 to $0.68879 upon release of the figures
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 05, 2019, 09:19:36 PM
China insisting that the US withdraw all tariffs imposed since the start of last year.
Although the 2 sides are close to agreement on some issues,  such as I.P. and foreign exchange,  there are other unresolved talks on soya beans and other products.
Trump is understandably keen to get a deal signed off but how will he react to China frustrating him from doing so?
Lets see what the markets make of this.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 06, 2019, 07:51:55 AM
Reuters report that China and France are in negotiations regarding helicopter and Airbus purchases from Beijing.
These will concern the US, sending a clear message that Boeing is not the only player in town. On top of existing problems related to the Boeing Max, this could send shares in the company spiralling downwards and threatens thousands of US highly-skilled jobs.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 06, 2019, 10:35:02 PM
Quite a mixed bag today. Gold edged slightly higher without pulling back earlier losses on Tuesday. 
EurUsd is still lagging under 1.11 in spite of better than expected EU data.
GbpUsd remains below 1.29 as the UK parliament is dissolved and electioneering begins in earnest.
UsdJpy also slid following news that any China-US trade deal may be delayed until December at the earliest.  This news also affected many US stocks
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 07, 2019, 08:09:51 AM
Bank of England rate decision today is unlikely to spring any surprises,  so I don't expect much market movement because of this.
Gold prices are still stuck in a range below last months figure, but Chinese trade figures out tomorrow could turn the focus back on gold and commodities in general.
Rising US stockpiles of crude are keeping the lid on oil prices, these are also range bound with little sign of movement in any direction.
Difficult market in which to pick any winners currently.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 07, 2019, 10:13:09 AM
Reuters are reporting today that Canada is resuming beef and pork exports to China.
Separately,  they also report that China and the US may begin rolling back trade tariffs very soon.
This should provide a boost to some US stocks, if it proves to be correct.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 10, 2019, 08:15:15 AM
China-US

Reports coming out of Washington yesterday conflicted with Friday reports that claimed the US and China were close to agreeing to roll back some tariffs as they neared completion of phase 1 of the trade talks.
Would expect this to have a negative impact on US stocks, Australia, and some Asian forex pairs
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on November 10, 2019, 10:01:43 AM
China-US

Reports coming out of Washington yesterday conflicted with Friday reports that claimed the US and China were close to agreeing to roll back some tariffs as they neared completion of phase 1 of the trade talks.
Would expect this to have a negative impact on US stocks, Australia, and some Asian forex pairs
It seems to be becoming harder and harder to form a view on most markets longer than 5 minutes! Swing trades of 1-3 days seem to build slowly into profit and then collapse back to breakeven in minutes! And the long trends have disappeared for now.

Personally, I am just ticking over on day trades in the London/NY session. Strangely, in its own way, it is quite restful without having to constantly carry a view in one's mind and, nowadays, always wondering and anticipating in expectation, just when it is going to reverse. 

But it is a bit "retro" in personal trading development, and doesn't create much to talk about with others!
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 11, 2019, 07:40:01 AM
Moodys downgrading the UK credit outlook to negative from stable in Friday, together with data releases this week, will bring focus back to Sterling.  On the plus side, the UK avoided slipping into recession.

A swine flu epidemic in China meant the culling of pigs, and this may partially explain the deal China struck with Canada to resume imports of pork (and beef) last week. Recent Chinese PMI figures point towards a slight improvement in their economy,  although inflation might be an issue for them
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 13, 2019, 08:11:23 AM
Reuters report that markets in Asia are falling due to a lack of certainty about the China-US trade talks and concerns over the riots in Hong Kong.
Japan fell just over 1% and Hong Kong by 2%.
Pres Trump said that the US were not close to signing a deal, adding that more tariffs could be imposed if this did not happen.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 15, 2019, 07:55:55 AM
US retail sales figures out later today, 1:30pm UK time. Markets are looking a figure around 0.5, anything less could be a bad sign.
Larry Kudlow, the White House economic adviser, said Thursday that Washington is getting close to a trade deal, which should provide a bit of a boost
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on November 22, 2019, 08:07:42 AM
Looking back over the past week instead of forward, for a change, this comment seems to say it all:

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/currencies-in-paralysis-as-trade-headline-fatigue-sets-in-2025843

I think the attached chart also underscores this commentary for the SP500. This is a 15 min chart since the start of Nov, i.e. 21 days! And it has a total range of only around 600 pips and within that, most of time in an even narrower 450 pip range.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on December 09, 2019, 10:05:19 AM
A lot happening this week:

 - UK elections 12th (look for whether Conservatives get a majority win or not)

- US additional tariffs on China goods on 15th  - or not!

Fed interest rate decision

ECB interest rate decision (and what comments from new President Christine Lagarde)

Amidst the other usual releases.....
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on December 12, 2019, 07:59:37 AM
I think we all know what one of  the biggest factors in todays markets is likely to be, the UK General Election which takes place today.
Yesterdays polls suggested a narrowing of the gap between the 2 largest parties, suggesting a possible hung parliament.
Todays exit polls may cause market jitters, as could the first early results,  so avoiding GBP pairs might not be a bad idea
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on December 12, 2019, 01:52:16 PM
Yes, the key point is whether the conservatives get a clear majority. If not, we are in for more of the same uncertainty that has plagued the markets for a long time already.

And once we know the answer to that later today,  we can immediately start to ponder the likelihood of Trump 15% additional tariffs on China at the weekend.....
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on December 12, 2019, 05:47:22 PM
Im happily out of all trades right now. Can sit back and watch the market fluctuations without any risk.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on December 12, 2019, 07:02:24 PM
Same here. I had taken a long position yesterday in EU thinking it might be less risky on the down side than GU, but it actually turned out to be a good trade. I closed it out at 1.1150 and I'm glad I did.

I was going to post details at the time I took it on the EU thread here but I don't know really if there is anyone interested in other people's trades here. It's kinda quiet nowadays. Is it just the holiday season?
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on December 12, 2019, 08:33:21 PM
Investing.com - The United States and China have reached a phase one trade deal in principle Thursday, Bloomberg reported.

The deal is awaiting a sign-off from President Donald Trump.

An announcement could come as early as this afternoon, Bloomberg said. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. negotiators were preparing to offer to cancel the next round of import tariffs on Chinese goods and cut existing tariffs in return for guaranteed purchases of U.S. agricultural goods.

The S&P 500 spiked on the report, up 0.75%. Earlier in the day, the index had been up 1.1% before falling back to a 0.4% gain.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on December 16, 2019, 04:00:14 PM
UK election is done and dusted, sterling pairs seem to be getting their breath back ahead of likely pre-Brexit fluctuations in January.
China-US deal is still on/off/on, same with tariffs. If the latest bunch of tariffs are imposed its likely they could affect consumer products like mobile phones, so could hurt US economy as well as sentiment towards the President.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on January 01, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
This is a short week, only Thurs/Fri  2nd and 3rd Jan, and I think markets will be thin as speculative interests continue the holiday season into next week.

Apart from FOMC minutes on Friday I find little else of major significance on the calendar this week.

Australia continues to burn and Ford has a full order book for its all-electric Mustang Mach-E SUV. The GT version gives a very silent 0-100 km/h in under 5 secs. The world is moving on.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on January 05, 2020, 05:14:21 PM
China has stated that it will continue with its current economic policies, keeping monetary policy flexible and prudent.

UK PM Boris Johnson is set to meet EU President Ursula Von der Layen next week in the likely precursor to deeper talks about future relationships between the UK and EU post-Brexit.

And, of course,  there will no doubt be more fall-out from the US/Iran warmongering stance which both parties seem to have taken

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on January 05, 2020, 05:45:46 PM
And Fri 10th sees this year's first NFP release (Dec data).
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on January 17, 2020, 07:52:07 AM
China have announced that last years economic growth was "only" 6.1%, almost 3 times that if the US.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51144892
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on January 26, 2020, 09:10:13 PM
A lot happening this week that traders need to be aware of, particularly if you follow the dollar.

December US durable goods orders, January US consumer confidence, December US advance goods trade balance, the January Fed meeting, Q4’19 US GDP, and December US PCE core reports are all due out in the coming days.

With US Treasury yields drifting lower in recent weeks, it should be no surprise that Federal Reserve interest rate expectations have become less indicative of policy inaction for an extending period of time.

Despite the fact that the US-China trade war phase 1 deal was signed, new concerns about global trade thanks to geopolitical tensions and the coronavirus outbreak have investors looking for safe havens.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on March 06, 2020, 08:50:24 AM
Good morning all.

I have been watching oil prices lately,  a very slippery slope indeed with no sign of an upturn while coronovirus is impacting global travel and exports.
Asian markets have had a decent day yesterday,  but on the back of a dreadful week or two, and are now sliding again.
Qantas shares dropped 7% after reports that global air travel was expected to fall by $113billion.

Nikkei today has fallen 2.7%, Hang Seng -2.3%, and Dow -3.6%. FTSE is already down over 2% this morning,  Dax-1.6%, and Cac -1.5%, so not a great start to today.


Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on March 06, 2020, 10:25:58 AM
Strange, or even rather eerie, that today is the day for what is usually the most watched US indicator, i.e. NFP, but it seems to have disappeared off the radar for this month!

A) because the Fed has just acted and B) the economic situation has changed so much and so quickly that last month's employment data means nothing compared with the present or in the months to come.

What a world!  ???
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Kaitsu on March 09, 2020, 10:20:39 AM
Hello World and welcome to another Monday morning. Is anything particular happening? Just a few things!!!:

LONDON (Reuters) - A massive oil price collapse overnight and the fast-spreading coronavirus has led to wild price swings across global financial markets on Monday, with some moves as great as 25%.

Those moves came as Saudi Arabia launched a price war with Russia, sending investors already panicked by the coronavirus fleeing for safety.

When was the last time oil giants such as BP (L:BP) and Shell (L:RDSa) shed one-fourth of their value? Never.

The list below highlights some of the biggest price moves and their significance:

** Brent crude (LCOc1) fell as much as 31.4%, the biggest daily drop since the first Gulf War

** The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries (US10YT=RR) fell further to a record low of 0.4624%, having halved in just three sessions

** With swings in yield, markets are now fully pricing in a rate cut of 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve on March 18

** The 10-year Bund yield fell to a record low of -0.863% (DE10YT=RR)

** U.S. stock futures plunged 5% to hit their daily down limit and halt trading

** London's FTSE 100 (FTSE) shed 8.4% a few minutes after the open in its worst single-day drop since the financial crisis

** London-listed Shell plunged 23% and BP 29% in their worst-ever intraday rout

** The Russian rouble is down over 8%, on track for its worst drop since December 2014, also when oil prices plunged

** The dollar extended its slide in Asia to as low as 102.60 yen , depths not seen since late 2016

** Emerging-market stocks (MSCIEF) dropped over 4% and the world's biggest listed entity, Saudi Aramco (SE:2222), traded below its IPO price for the first time
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on March 11, 2020, 07:49:07 AM
Heard on radio just now that the Bank of England have cut interest rates by 0.5% to try and help beleaguered businesses.
Not sure how useful that will be if, as expected,  the UK follows Italy into lock down in the coming days/weeks, but every little helps and there is not a lot else they can do.
Gbp fell against other currencies initially,  but has regained some of its losses.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on March 11, 2020, 05:03:57 PM
Good afternoon all.

The interest rate cuts on either side of the Atlantic have not stopped the respective stock markets sliding.

FTSE is currently 5865, down 1.6%, and Dow 23846, down 4.7% on the day

Brent slips another 2.5% today to 36.28
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on March 12, 2020, 11:20:19 AM
Covid 19 still hurting stocks.

FTSE now at 5559, -5.4%
Dax and other European markets down around 5%
Dow finished yesterday on 23553, -5.86% and expected to fall further today. Dow is -20% off its peak.
IAG, owners of British Airways,  down 9%
Tui, the travel company,  down 12%

Who's going to be brave enough to take a buy position?  I think there is still a lot further for some if these shares to fall, and a large number of companies may not survive.

Namaste
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on March 12, 2020, 04:36:25 PM
Hello all.

FTSE is continuing to fall. Over 10% today.
Government is about to release Cobra decisions,  general feeling is not great and shares might well fall some more when this is revealed.
Sterling pushing down to 1.25
More to follow...
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on March 12, 2020, 04:58:13 PM
Well, not really much for the time being.
From tomorrow,  all people with fever or flu like symptoms will be asked to self isolate for 7 days.
No more school trips overseas.
Over-70s to avoid cruises
Not closing schools now.

Considering banning large public events,  to be decided later.

Boris says true numbers infected is probably much higher than we realise- markets wont like that! His chief medical advisor thinks the actual figure is around 5000 infected now,  as against the 596 reported figure. "We are 4 weeks behind Italy"
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on April 15, 2020, 10:58:01 AM
Hello, and good morning.
Sterling has taken a bit of a hit today, possibly on the back of the OBR (Office of Budget Responsibility) saying that the UK economy could fall 35% in Q2.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on April 16, 2020, 10:26:18 AM
Stocks and shares took a bit of a battering yesterday following some very poor numbers from the banks, another oil drop, and weak economic data.

US retail sales fell 8.7% month on month, the worst since 1992. UK didnt fare much better, falling 4.3% in March.

In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a gauge of factory activity in New York state recorded its steepest ever fall to hit –78.2, far worse than the –32 expected. April is expected to be even worse, as the lockdown did not kick in until part way through March.

Todays US jobless numbers will be watched closely, 5 million is the expected number.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on April 22, 2020, 10:22:39 AM
After yesterday when most indices fell, today has started cautiously optimistically in Europe. Hopefully this will hold up and the US will follow suite.

The recent pain in oil markets is unsettling risk appetite more broadly, with the S&P 500 down 3% and the Dow shedding over 600 points yesterday, and its hard to see much positive regarding oil as things stand.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on May 05, 2020, 11:21:04 AM
The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold at the record low 0.25 per cent and seems to be intent on staying there for a while. The RBA won’t go negative and won’t hike until the Covid-19 crisis is well in the rear view mirror. This is a pattern being repeated by most major central banks. 
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on June 23, 2020, 11:35:05 AM
Peter Navarro,  Trumps trade adviser, announced yesterday that the China-US trade deal was over,  prompting markets to fall first thing.
Trump then tweeted "The China Trade Deal is fully intact. Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the Agreement"
Who was telling the truth is hard to ascertain,  but it admitting the deal was dead could be inconvenient in the run up to the election
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: ElvisChute on June 23, 2020, 02:38:10 PM
That must be annoying for people trying to trade the news. One thing one minute, then deny it the next. I suppose it make sit harder for technical traders as well as news like this will change what they see on their screens as well.
Has it always been like this or is this just since Donald Trump came into office?
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on July 08, 2020, 10:49:26 AM
Mini budget due in the UK today, chancellor starts speaking in just under 2 hours.

Some of his proposals have been leaked, and these look like good ideas to me. The £500 voucher is a good idea as it should encourage people to visit physical shops. The change to stamp duty less so, sellers may ask for higher prices or be more reluctant to accept offers if they know the buyer is saving on stamp duty

Let's see how it pans out
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: BWS on July 08, 2020, 02:30:03 PM
Mini budget due in the UK today, chancellor starts speaking in just under 2 hours.

Some of his proposals have been leaked, and these look like good ideas to me. The £500 voucher is a good idea as it should encourage people to visit physical shops. The change to stamp duty less so, sellers may ask for higher prices or be more reluctant to accept offers if they know the buyer is saving on stamp duty

Let's see how it pans out

Nothing unexpected so FTSE continues on its merry way sideways.
There was a bit of a drop first thing followed by a bit of a recovery. Low cost housing providers like Persimmon rose after the announcement of the stamp duty holiday for properties up to £500k, but more expensive providers fell as traders realised the chancellors choice of words suggested that properties over £500k would not benefit at all.

I dont like the idea of vouchers to get 50% restaurant discount during August. The danger is that people put themselves at risk by eating out rather than lose out on a freebie and we have another wave of coronavirus come September.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: BWS on July 26, 2020, 02:58:58 PM
A few things to watch out for if you are trading Monday.

At 9:00am UK time, the German IFO Business Climate Index is out. This is a high volatility warning, you can expect fluctuation around this time in Euro pairs.
It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers compiled by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.
The forecast for tomorrow (Monday) is 89.3 against last months number of 86.2, so anything significantly over 89.3 should send the Euro up, and anything lower should send it down.

Later in the day, at 1:30pm UK time, is the US Core Durable Goods Orders, which measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods (excluding some products such as aircraft parts which can take months to complete). A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
The forecast is 3.5% against last months 3.7%.

Personally I will be out of the market by 1pm as far as USD pairs are concerned.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on July 29, 2020, 09:53:28 AM
If/when the proposed US stimulus package is finally signed off it should provide a boost to the market.

Republicans' $1 trillion (773.99 billion pounds) proposal includes cutting a weekly $600 unemployment benefit, which expires on Friday, to $200 just as cracks emerge in the economic rebound. Cant see $200 going down very well with the public, dangerous given how close the election is.

The Democrats are pressing for a larger spending commitment, while President Donald Trump also said he didn't like elements of the Republican plan, adding to the sense of confusion.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on August 10, 2020, 08:07:27 AM
Positive economic news out of China has given an early boost to Europe this morning, hopefully the sentiment will continue
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on August 13, 2020, 09:26:03 AM
We have another round of US-China trade talks this weekend.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said this week the deal was "fine right now," something you can read as either positive or negative depending on your point of view. For example, Japanese stocks rose on the belief that this looks good and that the 2 nations will stick with the deal and move forward, whereas Bloomberg report that China is behind in farm goods and energy purchases and this could add to conflict between the 2.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on August 19, 2020, 01:00:27 PM
A few wobbles today after President Trump on Tuesday said he has cancelled trade talks with Beijing days after a scheduled review of the initial Phase One trade agreement was postponed.

Relations between Washington and Beijing have been tense since Trump took office, initially largely over trade and intellectual property disputes, and spiralling downwards as the coronavirus pandemic worsened.

Additionally, investors are holding out hope over a possible breakthrough in deadlocked US economic stimulus talks.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on September 28, 2020, 03:56:11 PM
Its been quite the day today. Shares, Forex pairs all making decent sized moves.
Various reasons, including increased likelihood that Bank of England will reduce rates, the UK government and other nations will increase stimulus packages, and the belief that the UK and EU will have to come to some sort of agreement sooner rather than later.

On the horizon, watch out for tomorrows first debate between Trump and Biden. How each handles himself and how the markets react is anybody's guess, so it could be volatile.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on September 29, 2020, 08:23:53 AM
Bit of a slow start this morning.

European markets fairly flat as we wait to see if governments introduce new stimulus plans for economies.

Everything could change very quickly, one announcement is all it needs to get the ball rolling
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on October 02, 2020, 10:00:57 AM
No doubt what is moving markets today, news of Trump catching Coronavirus.

Futures for the S&P 500 fell 1.8% in Asian trading after the news, extending earlier losses, while barometers of risk sentiment, such as the Australian dollar and Treasury yields, dipped.

An interesting comment in Investing.com- “Trump has been trailing behind Biden and he has clearly failed to narrow the gap after the first debate ... I suspect markets will lean towards the view that Biden will likely win the election,” said Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management. “What I am worried is that he will become even more aggressive against China after he caught the virus himself.”

If that were to happen, especially if Trump were re-elected, we can only guess what the affect might be on the markets
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on October 02, 2020, 01:45:11 PM
NFP just announced
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on October 02, 2020, 02:47:08 PM
NFP just announced

That was a disappointment, more than expected. Added to Trumps Covid news this hasnt been a great start to the US markets, opening down.
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Michael on November 02, 2020, 03:47:24 PM
I think its fair to say the US Presidential election will move the markets this week.

Reuters report "The 2020 U.S. election is shaping up to be the biggest betting event of all time, with one player placing a record-breaking one million-pound bet on a victory for Democratic challenger Joe Biden, betting companies say." It is estimated that over $1 billion will be wagered on the outcome in total.

One person had placed a one million-pound bet on Biden, Betfair said, the biggest political bet of all time. If Biden wins, the player would bag 1.54 million pounds.

Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on November 03, 2020, 08:29:25 AM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian equity markets rallied on Tuesday, with investors buoyed by strong factory output data from major economies, while the dollar and gold were little changed ahead of U.S. elections.

European markets have opened stronger this morning as well. Hopefully  the stronger stance taken by some nations will help curb the latest wave of covid and get business back to work quickly
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: Caesar on November 03, 2020, 02:05:33 PM
Michael, someone in the UK has topped the $1m bet

https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/03/mystery-brit-bets-4000000-on-trump-winning-us-election-13526720/

Must be nice to have that sort of money
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on November 04, 2020, 01:29:47 PM
USA non-farm employment numbers don't make for good reading
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on April 15, 2021, 11:53:31 AM
A couple of news events out today that any of you with USD trades may want to watch out for.

Retail sales, due out at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT) are expected to have risen by 5.9% last month, bouncing back from a weather-depressed 3% drop in February.

Industrial production, due at 9:15 AM ET (1315 GMT), is expected to have rebounded 2.8% after a 2.2% drop in February,
Title: Re: What is moving the markets this week
Post by: eddieb on April 22, 2021, 09:06:02 AM
Some key news events to be aware of today if you are trading.

ECB policy decision at 1145 GMT, followed by news
conference at 1230 GMT.

US initial jobless claims data, 5-year TIPs auction

US corporates results out today: Dow chemicals, AT&T, Blackstone, southwest
airlines, Mattel, Intel

European corporates reporting today: SEB, Vivendi, Rentokil, Renault, SAP,
Bankinter, Volvo, Hermes, Taylor Wimpey, LSE, Pernod Ricard,
Nestle, Credit Suisse, Calebaut