NotTheNoobs

Stock & Shares => Stocks, shares, futures, and bonds => Topic started by: Kaitsu on September 23, 2019, 08:10:06 AM

Title: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on September 23, 2019, 08:10:06 AM
The Far East stock markets were weak at the start of this weak due to US-China trade concerns and the situation in Hong Kong. But the SP500 gained primarily on comments. After the meetings at the end of last week the U.S. Trade Representative’s office described them as “productive”, whilst the China’s Commerce Ministry described the talks as “constructive”.

The SP500 suddenly closed weak last Friday. I am not sure about this but I think it was due to Chinese officials unexpectedly cancelling a planned visit to U.S. farms. This drop was reversed this morning.

The SP500 retains its positive tone but seems capped by the record highs achieved at the end of July this year. Whilst the outlook for the US economy remains positive there is still the feeling that the US-China will not be resolved any time soon and that is negative for global trade as a whole. And the US economy is not entirely isolated from the global situation.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on September 24, 2019, 07:02:42 AM
Another quiet day here, too. We saw a minor early push down towards last week's lows but the rest of the day was a gentle climb back with a close well above the day's opening levels.

The current underlying strength in this market continued in the Far East with trading back above the 3000 level.

There is optimism concerning the upcoming high-level US-China trade talks in a few weeks time as well as the usual pre-talks rhetoric. It would seem that this optimism may continue this week unless any unexpected negative events get in the way.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2019, 08:04:50 AM
Friday saw a strong response in SP500 following the data release. The US economy is still moving strongly and with high employment, but not without some grey clouds appearing on the horizon in the form of weak data concerning manufacturing.

The Far East  markets did not continue the up move and slipped back a bit.

I guess the two main areas at present are the Fed speeches and FOMC minutes this week and the upcoming US-China trade talks.

So in the near term I think we will hold a positive feel while we can stay above the 2900-2925 but I doubt we will move above 2950 without fresh input. This input could well come in the form of Jerome Powell's speech later today and any hints of further easings and rate cuts.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 07, 2019, 06:59:49 PM
I think you're right about the S&P positive outlook, especially if Trump can come up with another booster for the economy like he did last year.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 08, 2019, 04:34:44 PM
So in the near term I think we will hold a positive feel while we can stay above the 2900-2925 but I doubt we will move above 2950 without fresh input.

The phrase"near term" used to mean maybe the next few days, but it seems nowadays it only means "good for the next few hours....."

Yesterday did turn out to be an up-day, albeit a rather weak one, but ran out of steam again at the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart (overlaid on the 1-hour chart attached), which is also more or less the level where we closed on Friday, and we couldn't close above that 2950 level.

But yesterday also brought forth some new Trump sanctions moves against China (this time in the name of human rights issues), as well as some negative sentiments about the likely outcome of the upcoming US-China trade talks starting this week. In my opinion, these are typical Trump tactics prior to negotiations by demonstrating what kind of negative actions the opponents could face if they do not compromise and forcing them to give up ground just to get back to the original starting point.

Either way, the failure to move higher on the week combined with these actions/comments were sufficient to turn today's likely direction downwards, and that is what has taken place so far.

I actually tried to write about this view this morning but the site was in maintenance mode then. I also wrote this post earlier tonight, but lost the entire post when the site again went down when before I could publish it!  ???).

What these market moves really show is the current futility of commenting on markets at all with a time-frame longer than the next few hours.

Fortunately, the SP500 is a great market for short-term, intraday trading, such as on a 15-min time-frame, if one is content to sit and monitor one's positions. 100-200 points is easily attainable (today produced 225 pips) But that is hardly something one can post about on a forum in real time.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kim on October 08, 2019, 07:38:58 PM
Do you trade this often?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 08, 2019, 08:13:35 PM
Do you trade this often?
Its my main trading instrument so I watch it constantly. Sometimes swing trading, but nowadays more just in and out while it is so unpredictable and jumpy.

I use a very simple approach, similar in concept to the 3 ducks in that I mainly watch the 4H, 1H and 15min TFs, and all with the same basic set-up.

I also keep a watch on the candle formations on the daily chart as background. If the 4h/1h/15min fits with the daily outlook then I look to stay in it longer, sometimes with a manual trailing stop, otherwise the 1H is my main TF with the 15min giving entry/exit signals.

Maybe sounds more complicated that it is.

But it is not a mechanical system. I treat it more like a satnav that is giving me directions, but I decide when to actually act on it!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 08, 2019, 09:17:26 PM
. 100-200 points is easily attainable (today produced 225 pips)

And another 135 points to finish the day off the 15 min chart.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 08, 2019, 09:18:56 PM
Nice way to end the day  :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 09, 2019, 07:59:40 AM
Nice way to end the day  :)
Yes it was, but some of the satisfaction is quashed by the suspicion it was probably more by luck than judgement!  :-[
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 09, 2019, 08:09:25 AM
That’s a good sign, being self aware. Much better than assuming every winning trade was down to your ability and every losing trade down to misfortune.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 09, 2019, 08:49:53 AM
That’s a good sign, being self aware. Much better than assuming every winning trade was down to your ability and every losing trade down to misfortune.
Yes, we have to accept that there is only one captain on each ship and it is up us, the trader, to make the decisions, control the action, and accept responsibility for all the outcomes.

We need to realise that we are, at best, only dealing with probabilities in all our trades And that means there will be gains and losses, and that this is actually ok.

All we need do to be profitable is manage the outcome of these probabilities with sensible risk/position size/equity management. Quit when we're wrong, run with it when we are right.
 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 09, 2019, 08:57:56 AM
A long term observation on the SP during 2019 (which is probably good for about 5 minutes!)

One broadly watched indicator is the 200-period moving average and especially on the longer term time-frames.

The daily SP500 has been riding this line all year and is again approaching it from above. This is worth keeping an eye on.

If it were to break this convincingly then some might see a big head and shoulders formation here.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 09, 2019, 09:15:42 AM
Continuing on from the above look at the daily 200- period MA, This possible head and shoulders is further highlighted if we overlay this daily 200 SMA onto a 4-hour chart with a 4-hour 200-period SMA.

Both these lines are often respected as S/R levels and price crossovers are often followed by significant moves.

But this year has seen breaks on the upside through the 4-hour line but only to later fall back inside these two lines.

Last Friday looked like we might see another such break above the 4-hour 200 SMA but it failed on Monday and turned into a rejection yesterday. Now it is a question which of these two, converging lines will break next?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 09, 2019, 06:30:41 PM
Boring day today in the middle of an uneventful week so far. Glad I went to the cinema instead.

We have spent the entire week well within last week's range and just pivoting around the midpoint of that range around 2925. We've raised our hands briefly above the 2950 level and dipped our feet slightly below the 2900 and here we are back in the middle. It won't last long, it never does.

Both the 4-hour and Daily 200-period SMA's are also flat. And I'm hungry.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 09, 2019, 10:26:52 PM
S&P weekly chart continues to suggest upward trend, albeit with occasional pullbacks. Definitely one for the long run I think
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 10, 2019, 07:00:49 AM
S&P weekly chart continues to suggest upward trend, albeit with occasional pullbacks. Definitely one for the long run I think
This is an interesting issue in a general sense. It makes us consider what is the real difference between retail trading and long term investing. How many ordinary folk with a shares portfolio bother to look at each individual component of their investments every morning and during the day and monitor every dip along the way. Investor also fund there positions fully with real money buying real shares.

Against that there is the retail trader who trades via futures or CFD's with a carry cost and a need to cover their margin for as long as their positions are open and even increase their margin through every dip along the way until their positions are comfortably in profit.

One can look at the weekly chart for the SP500 and see long periods of solid gain and an overall uptrend, but one cannot see how far that is going to continue before we slip into the next recession of an economic cycle., or worse.

The result reflects at which point we join the current trend on the weekly chart. For example, if one entered a position at the end of September last year at around 2900 then one would have immediately witnessed a plunge of over 5000 pips/points up to last Christmas! But if one was still in possession of that position today then it would have climbed slowly but surely all the way back to that very same level of around 2900. See chart below.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 10, 2019, 08:00:32 AM
Cracking post!
The point you make about share investors funding their accounts with real money. You would possibly expect them to keep a closer eye on how their investment is doing, I can only assume that most share investors are more clued-up than retail forex "investors" , so don't feel the need and are generally in for the long haul
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 10, 2019, 08:32:52 AM
Cracking post!
The point you make about share investors funding their accounts with real money. You would possibly expect them to keep a closer eye on how their investment is doing, I can only assume that most share investors are more clued-up than retail forex "investors" , so don't feel the need and are generally in for the long haul
I think it is more likely due to an inbred expectation amongst the laypersons that stock markets generally always rise, albeit eventually and not necessarily "tomorrow", and therefore do not worry about (or even even notice) interim swings.

Professional investment funds, on the other hand, are surely more clued-up but also look at longer term trends. This by necessity rather than choice since one cannot easily swing multiple millions around every few hours. That Christmas Eve low spike on the weekly chart bounced off the weekly 200-period SMA almost to the pip!

Sometimes i think that one of the problems for retail traders is exactly this fact that the price is always right there "in your face" as it were, and it is difficult to remain immune to sudden spikes etc.

This morning was a good example how this can happen. One newspaper report stated that the Chinese delegation in Washington was cutting short it's planned negotiations and the market dropped 400 pips/points, only to climb back immediately before us westerners had even put the coffee on as though nothing had moved, but I'm sure a lot of short term stops got hit.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kim on October 10, 2019, 02:36:46 PM
Nobody takes a longer term view than Warren Buffet and he's dome pretty well out of it
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 10, 2019, 03:48:53 PM
Nobody takes a longer term view than Warren Buffet and he's dome pretty well out of it

Well maybe, but I don't think one can claim that it is just a question of a longer term view.

For example, on the monthly chart below if one had invested in the SP500 in 2000 while the trend was still looking so strong and held it, they would have had to wait until 2013 to get back to breakeven after having lived through a drop of nearly 8000 pips! Imagine waiting until 2032 before even getting your money back!

But if one had invested in 2008 and held, then in "only" 10 years or so it would have been a straight climb with a profit now of over 20,000 pips!

With these kinds of timescales we tend to only hear of the heros.
 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 11, 2019, 10:17:20 PM
Nobody takes a longer term view than Warren Buffet and he's dome pretty well out of it

Well maybe, but I don't think one can claim that it is just a question of a longer term view.

For example, on the monthly chart below if one had invested in the SP500 in 2000 while the trend was still looking so strong and held it, they would have had to wait until 2013 to get back to breakeven after having lived through a drop of nearly 8000 pips! Imagine waiting until 2032 before even getting your money back!

But if one had invested in 2008 and held, then in "only" 10 years or so it would have been a straight climb with a profit now of over 20,000 pips!

With these kinds of timescales we tend to only hear of the heros.
I never knew that!
I used to be on a forum where, every now and again,  someone would admit they were holding on to a huge losing position but were adamant that it 'has to turn around sometime'.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 12, 2019, 07:18:25 AM
I used to be on a forum where, every now and again,  someone would admit they were holding on to a huge losing position but were adamant that it 'has to turn around sometime'.
I think this is an extremely important issue. If there were more members here, especially newcomers to trading, then this topic i.e. "how long to hold onto losing positions" would be very relevant and useful.

There is, understandably, a very negative stigma about realising losses amongst traders. It is always seen as a failure, the mark of a bad trader, a faulty system, a personal defect, etc. But this is not so. It can never make a bad trade into a good trade just because eventually it returns to a profit.

I think it is always good to compare trading with other types of businesses, and in this aspect we can look at the retail industry for comparison. We are all familiar with the regular sales and offers in that industry and these are often related to unsold seasonal stock, end-of-range, or forthcoming new models/designs. Often these sales are at a loss for the retailer. But does it matter?

No, it clearly does not. When a retailer orders goods for sale, it is always an estimate. Any severe under- or over-estimating demand is a problem but the losses of the final stock clearances is built into the pricing policy in the first place. In other words it is the "net" profit that counts and not the price of each individual product.

We should consider our trading in the same way. It is only the net profitability that is important and not each individual trade. The real area that we should be concerned with is whether our trades, when we enter them, are good trades or bad trades, i.e. are they consistent with our trading criteria.

One big issue that traders tend to ignore when hanging on to losing trades is that the accruing loss on the trade is not the full extent of the loss. All positions lock in an amount of equity/capital that cannot be used for other purposes whilst that particular trade is open. Therefore there is a so-called opportunity loss here meaning the lost opportunity to use this tied-up capital in other, profitable trades.

E.g. if a losing position is carrying a $500 loss then maybe one day it will return to breakeven. But if the loss is realised and the margin used to trade other positions that might, say, end up gaining $1500 over that same period, then the account is actually $1000 more in profit. Therefore there is a sensible logic in cutting losses and running profits, if one only considers net results rather than each individual trade.

This is also even more relevant on short term, intraday type trading. There is no sense in running losses in the hope of a return "one day" if the original target was only 50 pips.   

In my opinion, if we are talking about "trading" , then the trader should always have a defined concrete reasoning for a) entering a trade, b) staying in the trade, c) exiting the trade.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Magyar on October 12, 2019, 07:39:13 AM
I can remember seeing somewhere 2 charts.
The first showed the percentage of winning trades made across about 20 different forex pairs by retail traders, and it showed that retail traders closed trades in a winning position over 50% of the time.
The second chart showed the average number of pips won versus the average number of pips lost by retail traders in trades. You won’t be surprised to hear that the size of losses dwarfed the wins, by a considerable amount.
This suggests a few things to me.
Many retail traders snatch their profits too early.
Those same traders are reluctant to accept a loss (as you so eloquently explain above)

So, they are generally making the right decision to enter a trade, but have no plan about when to get out and sure as hell won’t take a loss
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 12, 2019, 08:00:49 AM
I can remember seeing somewhere 2 charts.
The first showed the percentage of winning trades made across about 20 different forex pairs by retail traders, and it showed that retail traders closed trades in a winning position over 50% of the time.
The second chart showed the average number of pips won versus the average number of pips lost by retail traders in trades. You won’t be surprised to hear that the size of losses dwarfed the wins, by a considerable amount.
This suggests a few things to me.
Many retail traders snatch their profits too early.
Those same traders are reluctant to accept a loss (as you so eloquently explain above)

So, they are generally making the right decision to enter a trade, but have no plan about when to get out and sure as hell won’t take a loss

I think you are spot on there. I am not sure if these are the charts you are referring to, but they do point to the same conclusion:

From FXCM site:

https://www.fxcm.com/uk/education/traits-successful-traders/

"Our data shows EUR/USD trades closed out at a profit 61% of the time. But the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders lost 70% more on their losing trades than they won on winning trades. Remember that past performance is no indication of future results. Why the imbalance? Human behavior toward winning and losing can explain."




Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 12, 2019, 12:31:03 PM
I remember seeing something similar, in fact I mentioned it in a beginners guide I created. Seems a very long time ago
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 12, 2019, 01:11:21 PM
I remember seeing something similar, in fact I mentioned it in a beginners guide I created. Seems a very long time ago

That sounds very interesting. Maybe you could retrieve it and post it under the topic "Forex- a beginners guide"?

We don't seem to have (m)any new members appearing and maybe that could be a useful piece of "bait" for the minnows?  ;)

I am sure it is very good.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 12, 2019, 01:25:11 PM
I remember seeing something similar, in fact I mentioned it in a beginners guide I created. Seems a very long time ago

That sounds very interesting. Maybe you could retrieve it and post it under the topic "Forex- a beginners guide"?

We have plans for a guide/school and also for a regular series of videos,  you should see something in a few weeks  :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 12, 2019, 01:31:58 PM
Friday finally saw some movement on the SP500 and we finally broke out of the 4H - Daily 200-period pocket. This was not really unexpected as we had talked about likelihood of some upbeat comments on the US-China talks already last weekend.

But the move was not exactly stunning by SP500 usual standards and we did see some selling on the close, presumably from some long positions not wanting to risk adverse comments over this weekend. Afterall, nothing was actually agreed in real terms.

But there is one interesting point in Mr Trump's comments that I thought was quite significant. He mentioned that the scope of these trade talks is so broad that he has now accepted that a "phased approach" would be better. And these talks are, I guess, kind of Phase I, if they actually materialise.

Presidents Trump and Linping are meeting in Chile in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and any Phase 1 contract could be signed there.

This concept of a staircase approach of phased agreements may well bring some stability back to the markets as well as a gradual return to normal trading terms and growth prospects. It will also provide Mr Trump with something tangible to boast about during the election run up!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 12, 2019, 01:36:11 PM
I remember seeing something similar, in fact I mentioned it in a beginners guide I created. Seems a very long time ago

That sounds very interesting. Maybe you could retrieve it and post it under the topic "Forex- a beginners guide"?

We have plans for a guide/school and also for a regular series of videos,  you should see something in a few weeks  :)

Sounds great! Are you also planning some promotional publicity/awareness exercises to attract new members or do you prefer to see things grow "naturally"?

Should we also expect to see some advertising appearing at some point on the forum pages to keep it running?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 12, 2019, 01:42:06 PM
We plan to do some promoting, just wanted to get everything in place before we go. The hacker issue has cost us a few weeks,  but we'd rather deal with them early on than have problems later.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 12, 2019, 02:26:10 PM
The hacker issue has cost us a few weeks,  but we'd rather deal with them early on than have problems later.
Definitely the right priorities and I am sure everyone here has understood that during this period  :)

We plan to do some promoting, just wanted to get everything in place before we go.
Better get my best suit cleaned, ready to make a good impression!  :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 14, 2019, 12:52:52 PM
In what could be termed either a negative or a positive response to Mr Trump's phase 1 trade agreement, China has indicated it needs more talks before the agreement would be in a form that could be signed by Chinese president Xi Jinping.

"(Reuters) - China wants more talks as soon as the end of October to hammer out the details of the “phase one” trade deal outlined by U.S. President Donald Trump before Chinese President Xi Jinping agrees to sign it, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Beijing may send a delegation led by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to finalize a written deal that could be signed by the two leaders at the Asia-Pacific Cooperation summit next month in Chile, Bloomberg said.

China wants Trump to also scrap a planned tariff hike in December in addition to the hike scheduled for this week, the report added."


Although this seems to introduce some "new" conditions, especially concerning the December tariffs, it does seem rather concrete in terms of an intention to result in a signing.

Bearing in mind that today is Columbus Day in the US, whilst the stock markets are open it might be quieter than usual. Columbus Day is only partially observed as a holiday in the US.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 14, 2019, 03:04:18 PM
That certainly sounds a lot more promising,  moving in the right direction.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 15, 2019, 11:25:56 AM
Went long yesterday once we broke and held above the 200-period SMA.

I was looking for more on the upside, but I am nervous of how the US is going to react after returning from yesterday's holiday in respect to the growing negativity surrounding the proposed "Phase 1" US-China agreement: Will it happen? Does it change much?, etc.

So I have closed out of that one with just 70 pips after we failed to reach last week's high, call me chicken!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 15, 2019, 03:12:42 PM
So I have closed out of that one with just 70 pips after we failed to reach last week's high, call me chicken!
Not at all, its the sensible thing to do. Anyhow, you still pocketed some profit.
As we've eluded to before, in the current unstable climate its far better to sit back and wait for the right opportunity to come along.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 15, 2019, 04:05:44 PM
So I have closed out of that one with just 70 pips after we failed to reach last week's high, call me chicken!
Not at all, its the sensible thing to do. Anyhow, you still pocketed some profit.
As we've eluded to before, in the current unstable climate its far better to sit back and wait for the right opportunity to come along.

Yes I think so, but it would have worked out as planned, and that is in itself a great satisfaction. Two trades these week, both in profit and both closed too early!

But that has been typical of my trading for a little while now due to the unpredictable world of tweets, comments, rumours and short-lived events that we are currently living in.

I made a conscious decision a while back to always play safe and take what's on the table whenever there is a serious risk of a backlash. It is mildly frustrating but keeps the flow of bucks to the bank, albeit at a slower pace, which is, after all, what this is all really about, I think? :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 15, 2019, 04:24:53 PM
keeps the flow of bucks to the bank, albeit at a slower pace, which is, after all, what this is all really about, I think?
The thing is, as your account grows, those 70-100 pips will turn into bigger sums of money for the same percentage risk
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 15, 2019, 05:25:30 PM

The thing is, as your account grows

Now that is the key thing here for any trader.

Success is not just a question of how many pips, it is about consistent pips, and consistent pips is about managing risk exposure, account equity and, above all else, probability analysis.

Every trade will go through the stages of high probability pips, possible extra pips and then maybe even some extra lucky bonus pips.  if one always tries to hang on for those lucky pips then chances are the trade will end up losing everything since the eventual reversal is often far more swift than the start of the move (this is usually why ma crossover systems do not work).

Personally, I find it better to close at least part of the position, if not all of it, after the sure part and only leave a remainder for the "lucky" pips.

In the final analysis it is satisfaction of seeing one's increased balance that really counts rather than the fleeting joy or pain of each individual trade.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Magyar on October 15, 2019, 05:34:13 PM
I’m watching a tv program I recorded earlier this week about traders. There’s one guy in the introduction who says he’s just lost every penny he had earned so far this year (up to June) in a day. Can’t wait to see the details.
Absolutely crazy!
You keep playing it safe man, that way you’ll still be around to trade tomorrow.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 15, 2019, 06:30:26 PM
I’m watching a tv program I recorded earlier this week about traders. There’s one guy in the introduction who says he’s just lost every penny he had earned so far this year (up to June) in a day. Can’t wait to see the details.
Absolutely crazy!
You keep playing it safe man, that way you’ll still be around to trade tomorrow.
Thanks Markaria for that!

I just cannot even start to imagine the psychological damage that that kind of event must cause to a person!

And there is only one way that it can happen: super excessive risk-taking! Why don't people ever learn this simple fact: slow but sure.

And in trading terms, "sure" means measuring the probabilities, it is all we have! Whatever instrument, in whatever timeframe, and in whatever trading method, we are always just trading the probabilities. Call it "the edge", call it the "positive expectancy" (I just love that phrase! :D ), it is always the same thing, the probability of success.

But probabilities alone is not enough. If we risk too much then even one wrong trade is a wipe-out.

So we have two issues: a) Is the probability of success in our favour, b) if it goes wrong is the cost acceptable relative to the risk and account balance.

For example, in my own trading my win/loss ratio is usually around 70%, my risk/reward usually around 1:1 and equity risk exposure over all open trades usually not more than 3%.  I can live (and grow) with that.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 16, 2019, 05:47:19 PM
A quiet day so far and not an environment to risk too much. So today was just a quick scalp type trade as we failed to break the previous week's high.

Just 27 green pips which together with the morning's 23 pips from EU, makes up 50 for the day.

This is a long way from a normal trading environment but good experience nonetheless. One has to learn to recognise and adapt to whatever circumstances are prevailing at the time. Maybe that is one reason why purely mechanical systems do not consistently perform well.

It is also interesting to speculate how periods such as these last few Brexit weeks as well as the US China negotiating periods will come to affect back-testing of methods in the future when only price is considered!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 17, 2019, 01:04:14 PM
Sometimes trading can be really frustrating!  >:(

I went long the SP500 this morning on the likelihood that we would break out on the upside above last week's range high, and looking for 100+ points here.

As can be seen on the attached 5 min chart, we did soon break out, but then slipped back to the same level. At that time I took a look just before going out and I only had 4 green pips left so I closed it and decided to wait for the next move......

....and within half an hour of that comes the news of the EU/UK agreement and up it goes well beyond my target level  ::)

Sign of these times when one is so cautious about what is open  :-[

Its just been that kind of week!

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 21, 2019, 05:26:04 PM
Tried a long on S&P since the GBPUSD was too uncertain to start a new position.

Equally unclear and ended up settling for a mere 33 pips here.

I don't really have a clear opinion longer term here at all!  ::) :-\
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 24, 2019, 10:04:12 PM
I see Amazon quarterly earnings fell for the 1st time in 2 years, dragging the share price down.
They attributed this to the costs of switching to one-day delivery and other factors.

What will be of concern is that their forecast for the quarter came in short of estimates for both profit and sales, as the company predicted net revenue of $80 billion to $86.5 billion with operating income of $1.2 billion to $2.9 billion.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 25, 2019, 06:02:07 PM
It has been a remarkably quiet week on SP500 with a small range and no direction. We have remained within the top half of last week's range and really most of the time just bobbnig around the last week's highs.

But it seemed that every time it started to sell off it met with stiff support and soon bounced back.

I decided yesterday that there was a good chance we would see a break through the highs and went long. But it was a long wait as we once again drifted off the highs.

But my 4-hour chart remained positive and I hung in there and it finally paid off tonight with a 150+ pip gain. A nice end to a boring week from a trading point of view, at least for me.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Magyar on October 25, 2019, 06:12:29 PM
Today might be the3rd successive day of S&P going up. Now is on 3023 and has been over Julys high today.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 25, 2019, 06:29:42 PM
Today might be the3rd successive day of S&P going up. Now is on 3023 and has been over Julys high today.

Maybe 3rd successive higher high but not on the closes, at least not on my chart feed. In fact the attached daily chart has shown us stalling at these levels ever since July.

But the SP500 seems to defy gravity in the way it climbs higher. Accepted, the US economy is strong and employment full but there are signs of cracks and weaknesses that could normally keep a lid on stock indices, but not the SP500 it seems!

But this is the main reason why I like this index. There is no single underlying commodity and it is easy to focus purely on technical analysis of the price, and it moves a decent distance!

In my opinion, it is one of the best proofs of the validity of technical analysis.  :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 25, 2019, 06:44:40 PM
Today might be the3rd successive day of S&P going up. Now is on 3023 and has been over Julys high today.

I see you've changed your avatar!

Ferenc Puskás, Hungarian footballer/trainer?

Is there a story behind your choice?  :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 25, 2019, 07:45:28 PM
Friday's rise:

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 on Friday rose above its record closing high after Washington said it was close to finalizing parts of a trade pact with Beijing.

U.S. and Chinese trade officials are “close to finalizing” some parts of an agreement after high-level telephone discussions on Friday, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said, adding that deputy-level talks would proceed “continuously.”
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Magyar on October 28, 2019, 08:22:57 AM

Quote

I see you've changed your avatar!

Ferenc Puskás, Hungarian footballer/trainer?

Is there a story behind your choice?  :)

Not very much of a story. Simply I am from Hungary and Puskas is our Messi, Ronaldo, Best, Pele. That is all 😀
[/quote]
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 28, 2019, 06:34:00 PM
Simply I am from Hungary
Hungary is a great country with a tremendous history. And not bad at football either! :D

But I don't know how you manage with that language! ;D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 28, 2019, 09:01:46 PM
US stocks climbing on the back of positive noises on China-US trade talks and likelihood of further rate cuts by the Fed.
Microsoft rise following the announcement of them winning a $10bn Pentagon contract, although Amazon are likely to contest the decision.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 29, 2019, 04:24:24 PM
I missed the bus with the upmove yesterday, but caught it today for a quick 68 pips.

Not much, but the market has not offered much, either!

As we approach the last few days of the month I usually only look to grab pips wherever they appear so's to protect the month-end result. But with the 30 pips off GU today that makes for a satisfactory 100 pips on the day.

I am also wary of markets slowing prior to the FOMC meeting.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 30, 2019, 08:38:42 PM
It was a long wait for a trade today because of the FOMC meeting. Interest rates were cut in line with expectations and the Fed comment was:

WASHINGTON (Reuters):
“We believe that monetary policy is in a good place,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference after the U.S. central bank announced its decision to cut its key overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75%.

“We took this step to help keep the economy strong in the face of global developments and to provide some insurance against ongoing risks,” he said. “We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook.”

With the U.S.-China trade war “a step closer” to resolution, he said, and it looking less likely that Britain would crash out of the European Union, the outlook for the U.S. economy continues to be for “moderate” growth, a strong labor market and inflation rising back to the Fed’s 2% goal, he said.


I think that is a very positive outlook for SP500 but there was a slow response on the up side. That is understandable since Friday sees the release of the NFP data and will be viewed in the light of Jerome Powell's comments above.

But I took what was on the table, a mere 50+ pips for today. Not much but adds a bit of icing to the month-end figures.  ;)

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 01, 2019, 12:06:51 PM
SP500 is not looking overly perky today ahead of the NFP, but based on the FOMC comments and the longer term technicals, I would have to put my preference (nervously) on the upside. But I'm not in a position on that!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on November 01, 2019, 12:11:36 PM
I’m not surprised you’re nervy. There’s so much uncertainty around plus the non farm numbers.
Maybe clock off for an early weekend?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on November 01, 2019, 02:12:09 PM
S&P has just broken through resistance and hit a new 16 year high.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on November 01, 2019, 02:13:47 PM
SP500 is not looking overly perky today ahead of the NFP, but based on the FOMC comments and the longer term technicals, I would have to put my preference (nervously) on the upside. But I'm not in a position on that!

Looks like your instincts were right
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 01, 2019, 02:29:10 PM
Looks like your instincts were right
Fortunately!
I did put on a long position this morning but it was sagging towards the NFP release and I had definitely decided to close it rather than risk more of a loss. But then just before the release I decided it is the start of a new month with lots of time to make up a loss and that the chart was still positive in spite of the drift off during the day - so I left it open afterall and just now hit TP.

So the month is off to a good start. GBP is pretty much unchanged but I think that is a positive sign after the release.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on November 01, 2019, 02:42:45 PM
Thats a really nice curve, well done. Nice way to end the week/start the new month
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 01, 2019, 03:23:21 PM
Thats a really nice curve, well done. Nice way to end the week/start the new month
Do you mean the chart?

Sssssh, don't tell anyone, but it is my own version of the 3 Ducks.  :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on November 06, 2019, 08:12:31 AM
CNBC article claims stock market ready to rally,  based partly on only 10% of S&P500 being at new highs.
Not 100% sure that I agree with their logic.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/11/05/the-stock-market-is-poised-for-a-rally-only-10percent-of-sp-500-at-highs.html?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on November 07, 2019, 05:07:37 PM
S&P500 rising to new highs on likely trade agreement.  US stocks hit record highs on tariff cut hopes as China signals they woukdl like to consider phased tariff cuts as talks progress.
It seems China feel they have the upper hand now and that Trump needs a deal soon and more than they do.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on November 08, 2019, 08:42:17 AM
A report out this week suggests that buying when the S&P has already had a run up through October is a good idea.
The report, by Cannacord Genuity, checked back to the 1950's and found 7 occasions when the S&P was up 20% or more through October,  it around 6% over the rest of the year.
So, there might still be a few bucks to be made here before Santa comes visiting.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on November 14, 2019, 07:48:03 AM
News that the US budget deficit has risen above $1trillion for the 1st time in 6 years will not go down well with the President.
Federer Reserve chairman Powell said that this was unsustainable and could hamper the countrys attempts to combat inflation.
Today could be an interesting day as the President and Powell can both expect a grilling from the news media.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on November 20, 2019, 10:17:33 PM
I spotted earlier today that both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq had quite big drops,  around the 1% mark when I looked.
General feeling is that it is on the back of the increased likelihood that trade talks between China and the US will not reach any meaningful conclusion by the year end.
The S&P fall was its largest since October,  although it has onky recently hit new highs so there may be some profit taking involved
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 21, 2019, 05:21:32 AM
I believe you are correct with the reason for the fall. It is totally logical because the recent rises were based almost entirely on the earlier expectations that the so-called phase 1 of the US-China trade negotiations would be signed off in November.

Now it seems more likely to drift into 2020 and the Hong Kong situation, and the new US law concerning it that Congress passed on Tuesday, threatens to make the negotiations even tougher.

So it is logical that the market would back off if the pillars that were supporing it are given a wobble.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on January 30, 2020, 03:31:57 PM
Interesting that when markets are finding it hard to establish direction and appropriate levels, they tend to observe the widely recognised technical indicators even more than usual.

See here how the SP500 hourly bars have recently been hugging both the 1-hour 200-period EMA and 4-hour 200-period SMA lines. Its been an easy week to trade!

The US markets are unclear about the impact from the impeachment trial and where the US/China trade war might go from here, and now about the extent of the possible impact on global economies from the coronavirus.

None of these can define a level where the market should be and so we just play the TA....   
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on January 30, 2020, 04:15:24 PM
I'm not sure if impeachment will affect the markets,  after all the outcome is pretty certain barring some unexpected switching of allegiances by 4 republicans.

The coronavirus situation is more concerning to me. Certainly exports from China will be affected and I would think output from Chinese factories will take  hit, which will then impact upon supply chains worldwide and prices of goods. Add to this the loss of business that would normally come from Chinese tourists who are currently stuck at home.

I would expect a lot of businesses,  especially those selling Chinese goods or supplying Chinese tourists,  will be announcing poor figures for January and February,  if not longer.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on January 30, 2020, 05:30:00 PM
I'm not sure if impeachment will affect the markets,  after all the outcome is pretty certain barring some unexpected switching of allegiances by 4 republicans.
This is true, at least as far as the immediate outcome of the impeachment trial itself. There is no doubt that there will not be sufficient Republican votes to remove Mr Trump at this stage. (BTW, does it not require a 2/3rds majority vote to remove him, not just 51/49?

However, it seems there are some thoughts that the Democrats are actually looking further down the line and are really aiming at the American people here and their intentions when it comes to voting time at the end of the year. Mr Trump already had a minority overall vote at the last election in terms of a simple adding up of all votes, and it is possible that even more of the electorate could be influenced to vote against him this time - trouble is, is there a credible alternative amongst the Democrat nominees!!

Seems a bit like a mirror of Brexit. Brexit itself happens tomorrow, but the real issue is the negotiation of a new trade agreement during the rest of the year and what we end up with then!

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Magyar on January 30, 2020, 06:50:15 PM
Hello yes you are right. It is simple majority to impeach but 2/3 to remove from office so 20 Republicans would have to vote against President
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on January 30, 2020, 07:07:38 PM
Hello yes you are right. It is simple majority to impeach but 2/3 to remove from office so 20 Republicans would have to vote against President
Thanks for the confirmation.  :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on January 31, 2020, 08:12:31 AM
It looks like the impeachment hearings could be coming to an early conclusion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51320848
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 09, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
A lot in the serious media about likely fallout of coronovirus on global economy.
Stephen Roach,  chief economist at Morgan Stanley,  says we technically may be operating at global recession pace in the first half of this year.
Barclays warn that factory shutdowns will have negative impacts "not limited to China"
S&P expect China GDP growth to slow to 5%, impacting globally, with " sharply reduced tourism revenues,  lower exports of consumer and capital goods, lower commodity prices, and industrial supply chain disruption"
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on February 10, 2020, 07:50:32 AM
No doubt that coronovirus is going to hit economies bad. Reading about tourism issues only, Cathay Pacific have asked 27, 000 staff to take 3 weeks unpaid leave and major tour operators are expecting mass cancellations as travellers from the Far East cannot leave and travellers to there are unwilling to go.
Just looking at China alone,  their 159 million tourists represent 12% of all global travellers and spent a huge £211 billion last year.
Japan expect financial impact on the coming Olympics could reach £17 billion
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 10, 2020, 11:08:58 AM
I am still trading S&P off the short term chart (1H/4H). This is a primarily bullish commodity, and we can now "look forward" to yet another 4 years of the same "Trumpism". But it is by no means a one-way street from a trading point of view even though actual cash investment long term holds are making great progress.

Last week was a typical bullish move when we were following the impeachment trial (even though the outcome was never in doubt right from the start), but as soon as that was over we are back on the negative coronavirus issue (all so-called "flavour of the day" stuff!).

So one can conclude that there is money to be made from the short term moves at present. Using a simple MA method there have been three moves since end Jan: 2 sells and 1 buy. The latest sell was on Friday into the weekend (which was admittedly a scary position to take!) is shown in the attached chart. I would normally have set a target at 200 points but because I was rather late into the move I only looked for a remaining 125 points. Target was hit early this morning (bounced right off that 200EMA!) and we have now rallied back up beyond the original sell level since then - this, to me, is short term trading. Spotting signals early and looking for a set (typical) pips move combined with a sensible pre-set stop level ( in this case 1:1).

Now I am just waiting for the next signal......

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 10, 2020, 09:09:11 PM
 
Now I am just waiting for the next signal......

And so the next signal, a buy, came this afternoon and I was late in again! But I set a lower target at 100 points to compensate and we reached that with little effort. Could have had more but I am a bit over-cautious nowadays and worry about sudden price collapses!!!

But two trades, one short and one long, closed on the same day. I'm ok with that. Slow but steady. I have no idea where the longer term is going anymore!   ???
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 10, 2020, 09:56:11 PM
Emerson, are you finding that you are spending less time in trades than usual and, if so, is that a conscious decision beforehand or do you feel price action is forcing your hand?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 11, 2020, 12:13:52 PM
Emerson, are you finding that you are spending less time in trades than usual and, if so, is that a conscious decision beforehand or do you feel price action is forcing your hand?

That is a good question! It raises many issues! :)

I always try to form a general idea of what the long term characteristic is from the weekly/daily/ chart and that determines the nature of my actual trades in the shorter TFs. For example, the SP500 was clearly in a steady upward move during last year, which was clearly visible on both the weekly and daily chart, and so my trading was almost entirely from the long side and buying into dips. Any short positions were smaller in size and with a tighter target level.  Currency pair also show trends better on the weekly/daily charts.

However, we are usually talking about  CFD-type trading and not passive cash investments and that is the problem, I think, for most traders, and especially beginners. It is easy to look at a weekly chart and say, hey that's easy to trade. But a closer inspection shows that in practice a weekly trend can often include pullback periods of even up to 2000 pips and sometimes drop back to breakeven after a couple of months and still be in a trend long term that eventually earns good money. But this is far from a forex trader's normal environment and trading perspective of a few days/hours, even minutes! And is usually beyond the scope of the typical Newbie's capital resources to hold through such pull-backs!

Also, a long term pullback on a weekly scale is, in itself, a trading opportunity. And that is how I normally try to trade. I first interpret the big picture and then trade "bite-sized" chunks within that picture.

That's the way I see it, anyway! But, as always, it's just a personal view! :)

So, coming to your question, yes, I have noticeably shortened the length of those "bites" in recent months and my normal trade duration has shortened accordingly. For example, I think there is a good chance that SP500 is consolidating here (global growth contraction issues, also reflecting in low oil prices) and I expect a broad trading range for a while and so my current "bite size" with SP500 is about 100-200 points and is usually completed within a range of 5-25 trading hours from entry. In fact, if it is still open after 6-8 hours I seriously consider closing out. So, yes, my trading characteristics have changed in recent months.

This question also touches on another issue that is, I think, common amongst beginner traders. I.e. can/should one aim to trade full-time rather than alongside a job. This is a big issue with many components, but here we could point to the issue of how to maintain a necessary minimum income level as a full-time trader when markets become unsettled and erratic?

A capital-builder can easily adjust their exposure according to the market and be content with whatever the market currently offers. But an income-earner has commitments and needs to achieve a certain basic income whatever condition the markets are in. The former takes what the market offers, the latter dictates how much has to be gained from the markets, whatever they are like.

 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 11, 2020, 09:33:32 PM
No signals generated on the short term charts today in either direction.
An early push upwards fizzled out and we dropped back over the last few hours. We are now homing in on the close towards last week's high at 3358.

The daily candle looks a little negative, closing nearer to the day's low, and we could see lower levels tomorrow although the overall longer term chart bias remains upwards.

An uncertain market currently affected by factors only indirectly related to the global economic condition, such as Novid-19 and the US primaries.

I predict there will be a trade signal tomorrow..... :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 12, 2020, 11:31:22 AM
I predict there will be a trade signal tomorrow.....

...and it came.....but (too) early in the morning when I was still in the neverneverland. But I bought into it later. However....

I put a 150 point target from the signal entry and it has so far reached around 100 points. But it is very slow and I got cold feet and decided to quit my own position with only 20 points (due to the late entry). 

So I am waiting to see now  a) whether the signal will reach its target, and b) when the next signal arrives, possibly on the downside.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on February 12, 2020, 01:37:22 PM
Interesting to see how other traders are adapting to the current environment.
I think failure to adapt has been one of the reasons behind my recent struggles. I have been taking riskier/less clear trades than before rather than wait for a stronger signal or considering  other strategies.
Something to ponder on  :-\
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 12, 2020, 07:29:19 PM
I have been taking riskier/less clear trades than before rather than wait for a stronger signal or considering  other strategies.
Something to ponder on 
Yes, I fully agree that there are times when price movement characteristics change and creates a need to reconsider one's approach.

To be honest, I don't really change my strategy, I just adjust my target expectations. I journal every signal that occurs, whether I take it or not, and its theoretical max gain/pullback before the next signal. This gives me a picture of what is happening and any overall changes that might be taking place. For example, if I am getting a lot of signals in both directions and the bigger picture is quite flat then I usually only look for a modest target per signal around the average number of pips gained per signal. But when the signals tend to be fewer and mainly in the same direction as the bigger picture (which will normally be trending) then I might leave it with a trailing stop and see how far it want s to go. SP500 has been like that at times last year.

But today's signal was typical of the struggles and uncertainties in recent times. It was a buy signal and the market has moved upwards, but very slowly and often threatening to reverse. I decided to close out early but the market did continue up. However, if you look at the chart below you will see that it peaked several times at the same level (in the red oval), which happened to be around 145 points profit with a target at 150!!!!!!! What does one do in situations like that? Let it run and risk a sudden collapse, or just take the profit when it is just short of hitting target! Easy to say in hindsight but at the time it just builds uncertainty and confidence in one's settings!

The only thing that keeps me  buoyant about the upside with SP500 is the almost certainty that Mr Trump will win another four years and that he and his very wealthy buddies are going to do all they can to keep the market strong during this year's campaigning since the strong economy is one of Mr Trump's most solid arguments!!

I am also still very positive about the GBP long-term and rather negative about the EUR long-term but there is room for a lot of movement in both directions in both currencies, so I am not looking at any positioning in my trading there either!

I am normally one of the last people to say take quick profits, but I confess I am guilty of that myself nowadays! I wouldn't want to be a full-time trader at the moment!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 13, 2020, 07:01:14 AM
Yesterday's target was finally hit at +150 points after several hours of teasingly holding around 5-10 points below it (see chart below). But I didn't have an actual position open then as I had already closed out earlier for only +20 points due to four reasons: 1) a late entry into the trade, 2) slow price action suggesting there was little momentum behind this move, and 3) this was the second consecutive long trade and that is always more risky with short term chart trading, 4) it has been a slow start to the month for me with only 4 winning trades here (out of 5) and my money management rules relate risk exposure to profit gain. In other words, whilst profits are low, risk is kept low to ensure a profit on the month.

But the "system" trade worked again. And it is interesting to see that within a few hours of hitting target the market did actually reverse and is back at the entry level of that trade. This is for me the key to the current markets. It would have been easy to take a long trade and move the stop to breakeven, hoping for more. But so often at present there is little follow-through and a promising profit is liquidated at B/E or worse.

We are close to a potential sell signal here but it has not yet materialised. And because the bigger picture is still positive then I am more cautious before actually taking a short position. Give it a few more hours maybe.

My intention here is really just to talk the technical picture but in this case it seems the sell-off was caused by exceptional jump in Covid-19 cases in China. But this was mainly due to a change in diagnosis criteria which included more cases than the previous method. Over half of yesterday's new cases were due to this broader criteria of influenza symptons+lung infection.

If that is the case, then this little sell-off may be short-lived!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 13, 2020, 08:16:45 AM
Great post,  Emerson,  and a terrific explanation of the rationale behind your trade.
100% with you on closing out when you did, I would probably have done the same myself.
With a Covid-19 vaccine 3 or more months away financial markets are going to remain jittery, especially when there is a spike in new cases. As company results begin showing impacts on the supply chain and consumer purchasing we could be in for a bumpy ride.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 13, 2020, 07:19:39 PM
Great post,  Emerson,  and a terrific explanation of the rationale behind your trade.
100% with you on closing out when you did, I would probably have done the same myself.
Thank you, Ceasar, I appreciate the comments! :)

Today was an interesting day! Firstly, I was reluctant to enter when the sell signal came because the big picture is still a strong uptrend, and waited too long - and then made the classic mistake of chasing the market!  :D

Fortunately, due to my distrust of selling this market I only sold a half size position. But lost -142 points on it after it almost immediately reversed. If I had entered on the signal when it first appeared it would have earned a full +150 points.

But then we very soon had a buy signal and, on the often correct assumption that: "what won't go down is going to go up" I bought a double-sized position and it was a fairly clear ride up to the +150 point target.

So recovered the stoploss and a good profit on top for the day. Again, risk management is so important in trading, and it minimized the loss and maximised the gain - but chasing the market, especially on the downside was asking for trouble and I should really have known better because when I eventually entered, the price had already dropped for most of what the signal trade would have been looking for.   :-[

So, a few old, gold lessons revisited and relearned today! but still a win on the day!  ;D

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 14, 2020, 07:27:15 PM
After what seemed like turning out to be a quiet Friday we got a sell signal about an hour ago. I hate this early morning/late evening starts - especiually on a Friday!

So far we are just over 50 points in the green and I think I am going to move SL to B/E already now, even though it can easily whip back up to that (and probably will). If it gets stopped? Well never mind, nothing lost - and I am not going to keep this one open over the weekend like last weekend, even if that one did work out fine!

So we have about 90 mins to go in which to see if this really does want to sell off towards the close today.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 14, 2020, 08:08:49 PM
As anticipated, this does not seem to be going anywhere on this Friday night so I have scratched the trade for a few points plus.

That's it for this week. Its been average, but consistent...and we are better off than last Friday, and that is mainly what counts! :)

If anyone is passing by here, then have a great weekend. :)

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 17, 2020, 08:28:51 AM
After scratching last Friday's short around B/E, the price did in fact raise further into the last hour of Friday trading and I bought it then. I was not going to leave a short open over the weekend because it was against the big picture, but a long position is another matter. Finishing strongly on a Friday in the direction of the main trend is usually relatively safe. Naturally, it is usually possible to open the position early Monday morning somewhere close to Friday's close (and avoid the weekend open exposure risk), but I like my sleep too much to get up that early..

So far, we have just exceeded the +100 point profit level and I have now moved my S/L to B/E. Now we will end up with either +150 points or about +5 points.

This chart has a more complex inclusion of the big picture - probably far too cluttered and colourful for many of today's young traders who are attracted to concepts of "naked charts" and "price action". Personally, I find no value, only distraction, in watching the price itself wriggling its way up and down in response to the erratic flow of orders from the vast mass of traders ranging from minute scalpers to long term investment hedge funds - and everything in between! My own preference is to seek a set of lines that identify the core line of direction (if any!) underlying, or embedded within, all that price "noise" - and in spite of the current price, rather than because of it! But that's just me ( and I just like "pretty" charts, anyway!)  ;)

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 17, 2020, 12:20:48 PM
I decided to close out for the +97 points.

I have a kind of rule with these kinds of short term trades that if no progress is made during a period of 6+ hours then the risk has changed to 50/50 and best to take what is on the table. A long period of non-progress like this (in a short term move) suggests there is no longer momentum in the current move and therefore the market could equally swing either way from such a point - even though the 1H chart has not changed its direction. (This is usually the cue for those PA addicts to throw in their criticism of the lagging factor in using MA's!  ;D) 

The charts have not changed their direction and I guess we are waiting to see what NY has to "say" at the start of a new week, and that often is a reason for slowness in the London timezone on Monday's.

Either way, it is done, and now to watch how things develop from here.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 17, 2020, 01:52:07 PM
Sound reasoning.
For what its worth,  it looks like a slight retraction now but I would expect it to push back up within 24 hours.
Breaking 4000 might take a bit longer,  but should be doable assuming no political surprises spook the market.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 17, 2020, 06:17:08 PM
For what its worth,  it looks like a slight retraction now but I would expect it to push back up within 24 hours.
Breaking 4000 might take a bit longer,  but should be doable assuming no political surprises spook the market
Absolutely, At least all the charts are pointing higher and we don't know when, or if, it will turn back - whatever approach we take to analyzing it!!

But isn't that the very core of trading? The only thing we have, that is common to all analysis approaches, is probability. What is the likelihood of this direction or that, and with what momentum driving it. But even that is not enough, we then apply our cash management to reflect our probabilities.

One thing that I think causes great problems for traders is how long to stay in the trade. Exiting is far more complex than entering trades. And one factor that creates this problem is seeking to get the biggest chunk out of each move. Some might call it greed, but it is not really greed, it is seeking to optimise efficiency.

Personally, I have a big problem with keeping open trades for long periods. I cannot leave them alone! I cannot sit with a trade for even days let alone weeks or months. But the reason for this is its visibility. I realised this a long time ago when it dawned on me that ordinary folk don't look at their share prices every hour or so - or even every day. And many don't look at their investments at all!

After that realisation, I changed my trading strategy. Instead of just looking to build bigger and bigger positions and have more and more risk open, I use my trading to build capital - bit by bit - and then every now and again I draw it and invest it elsewhere in things I don't have to watch.

So the situation now is that I take these "bite-size" chunks whenever I see a strong probability  - and if the market continues to move up then my funds in various investments still gain the benefit - but I am not sweating over open trades in my broker's account! Its basically pyschological, but for me it works!   :D

---And, of course, if it doesn't happen to keep going up then I am free of trading positions to trade the reversal!  ;)

 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 17, 2020, 06:56:01 PM
The market remained very steady, mainly due to Presidents Day holiday in the US. We have hung around the high of last week's range all day, which is a positive sign, and the lack of any sell-off during the UK session suggests the current upmove is still intact. Unless there is any unexpected news in Asia in the morning, I expect we will open around these same levels.

It is not my intention to get into fundamentals here so I will stick with "no change on the technical canvas". But there has not been sufficient pullback to either go short or to re-enter long yet. The core of this short term trading method is looking for compressions and then going with the exit from the compression, i.e. when the momentum kicks in. But there is no compression here and so its sit-on-hands time!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 18, 2020, 02:42:02 PM
Unless there is any unexpected news in Asia in the morning, I expect we will open around these same levels.
Well we did get bit of a sell-off on Asian news and I take that as further confirmation of the credibility of this "bite-sized" trading approach in today's markets. I am relieved that I did actually close out that long position yesterday at 3389.

Technically, there was a sell signal at the end of the first hour this morning in Asia at 3375, but since that was at about 2 o'clock local time, I understandably missed that one! Since then it did reach a maximum low of 149 points but whether I would have got filled or not, I can't say!. Either way, I would have closed it somewhere with a profit after having got to within one point of the target at 150 points!! So that trade was missed and is now over and am now just waiting for the next move!

I am though pondering entering a long here anyway even though there is no signal yet! Have to think about that......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 18, 2020, 06:45:46 PM
I am though pondering entering a long here anyway even though there is no signal yet! Have to think about that......
Having a think about things costs nothing - and in this it even saved money by not entering a long!!   :D

Waiting now for the market to settle and a new move..........
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 19, 2020, 07:56:32 AM
Waiting now for the market to settle and a new move..........
Actually the usual impatience/greed syndrome caught me again yesterday!!!

When the market was at the point shown in chart 1, I thought this looks like the down-move is fizzling out and it would be a bright idea to get in early and preempt the next buy signal by a good 100 points!  I had earlier thought to put a buy order below at that red dotted 200EMA (which is a common S/L level) but I was convinced it would not now get there so I jumped in with a long with a stop under that 200 EMA.

Naturally, as always when I try to outsmart my own system (!!), the market promptly dived straight down to precisely that level! Fortunately, it did not break through and, instead, bounced off (as anticipated earlier!) and I was able to close it out with a +100 points this morning. as in chart 2. (But more from luck and an overall bull market than sensible trading tactics!)

Does anyone else find that whenever they try to pre-empt a signal from a method it always goes the other way?  ???  :D

Well, dear diary, we are now in a upmove signal but I am out of the markets for a week or so now due to visitors staying with us for their winter holidays. Time for a break and recharge!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 19, 2020, 05:20:44 PM
Breaks?  What are those?

Enjoy yours and come back twice as strong as before!!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 19, 2020, 05:57:35 PM
Breaks?  What are those?

Enjoy yours and come back twice as strong as before!!
Thanks! :) I'm not very good at breaks at all and, in fact, I even took another quick trade before packing in just to squeeze the last few pips out of the move! :)

The wierdest thing is that I am basically trading a signal method that I have designed for myself and yet I find myself trying to compete against my own system!!!! My system went long this morning and I "knew" it was going to reach its 150 point target, but I had only actually gained 100 points overnight so I was trying to keep up with the system by squeezing another 50 points before packing in. I only managed 27 but that is near enough! (would have gained more if I could have left it!  :( ). Is that wierd or what!!!!  ??? ??? ???

I thought I would add this chart simply to show what I like about this approach. Most systems are designed to trade either trends or ranging markets, but with this approach it is often possible to get the best of both worlds by just taking the chunks as they come - either in each leg of a ranging market or each "pulse" in a trending market. It is only when the trend is really strong and without pullbacks that I get left at the bus stop - but that doesn't happen too often in markets.

I have marked each of the "pulses" in the SP500 over recent days and they have all worked fine and been banked even though not in one long "trend" trade. There have also been a few short trades in there as well, but they are a bit risky and need careful monitoring. Interesting to also note how that 1-hour 200EMA has worked as a support level (blue rings)

I am thinking of trying the same approach now with GBPUSD but with a 50 pip TP compared with the 150 point TP for SP500. I think the 50 pips is ok as a TP but I am not sure about the respective SL to pair it with. 50 pips is a bit tight in my opinion, but any more than that and the risk:reward starts to look a bit, well, risky!  :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 24, 2020, 06:05:23 PM
S&P taking a hammering today as supply chain concerns due to coronavirus spook the markets
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 27, 2020, 08:24:12 AM
Back again after the break..................and what have you guys done to this S&P market in my absence!!!  ;D

What a difference one week can make!

The sell signal came last Friday on the usual 1H chart but after the weekend, it also triggered on both the 4H and the Daily and we have been in a downfall all week. But we are reaching some significant levels now from a technical perspective as we approach the daily 200 SMA and a support region reflecting the breakout from the summer highs.

The hourly has been a beautiful and reliable chart all week and I wish I could say I was short for the whole 2000 points but I can't! I only managed a few short trades here and there in between entertaining the visitors! But those short trade chunks certainly paid off quickly to end up with a surprisingly good week!!!

But now the holidays are over, the visitors have left, the aftermath of three young active grandsons cleared up, and a needed recovery rest completed!

So here we are at the end of another month. SP500 has been a good one. I haven't traded currencies, but they look like they would have been a bit tricky. But where do we go from here - that is the question!

I don't like these sudden rush moves, it leaves my charts with such wide distances to any sensible SL levels. And since the background influence is the impact of coronavirus on global economies, this market is susceptible to big jumps in either direction e.g. significant shutdowns in major countries/towns in one direction, or a sudden bereakthough with an antidote/vaccine in the other. So who knows!

So, surprise, surprise, it is a "slow as you go" / "how do you eat an elephant? - one bite at a time" trading environment for me for the rest of this week/month.....

These charts show my hourly and daily view of the current SP500 situation - and the extent of this week's move:   

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 27, 2020, 05:27:29 PM
Slight improvement today, is now back up over 3000.
Buying opportunity?  Not for me,  I know fortune favours the brave but this is far too risky for my tastes
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on February 27, 2020, 06:24:01 PM
Same wherever you look. Forex pairs are all over the place,  I'm staying on the sidelines until I can see some upturn.
All it takes is a new outbreak of coronovirus and fear kicks in again.
Some sectors will fair better than others, and gold is a fairly safe bet, although possibly overpriced already.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 27, 2020, 07:38:39 PM
Slight improvement today, is now back up over 3000.
Buying opportunity?  Not for me,  I know fortune favours the brave but this is far too risky for my tastes

I certainly agree that it is a big risk to look for buys here unless one is a scalper, that is! We have spent the day so far in the zone I mentioned on my earlier chart, i.e. around the Daily 200SMA and that technical support from the summer highs. But the size and speed of the swings means a serious risk of being stopped out on sudden spikes in either direction . and it is fast today!.......

I only had the nerves to take one short trade for a 150 point move and it only took 3 minutes to drop to target!!! In fact, it was clearly a fast move because I even got 4 points positive slippage at 154 points! That is rare!

The trouble with trading here is that we are trading a virus and not a directly growth- related factor. It is impossible to quantify in any form at all its impact on growth and therefore impossible to establish any kind of sensible level where we should be - it is just a case of up or down - or both! 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 28, 2020, 06:23:46 AM
Later trading in the US finally broke that 200SMA level and we have seen a fast additional 1000 point drop in the US and Far East. This is a level followed by many professional/institutional traders/funds and the break shows the extent of the fears concerning the potential negative impact of coronavirus on global economic activity.

It is a teasingly difficult situation because Covid-19 itself is not a particularly dangerous disease for normally healthy people and is little more than a case of influenza. But the fact that it is highly contagious and lacking any knowledge concerning its after effects/side effects etc, and with no antidote/vaccine, means that the world has to try to contain its spread with lock downs, industrial shutdowns, travel prohibitions, etc - and that means huge disruptive effects on many businesses including tourism, travel, disrupted supply chains. But for how long and with what impact?

Two things in particular bother me right now:

1) the first case in sub-Sahara Africa - an area notable for huge populations and limited medical facilities - we could see a huge and rapid explosion of cases across Africe.

2) a Japanese woman who tested positive in January, was subsequently declared clear, and then caught it again.

If yesterday was diificult to define TP/SL then today, Friday, end of week, end of month, is even harder. Trade carefully  ???   
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 28, 2020, 08:40:03 AM
US markets were hit pretty hard yesterday.
S&P down 4.4%, Dow -4.85%, Nasdaq -4.6%.
European markets down around 3%.
Japan-4%
Its the not-knowing thats behind this,  no one knows how long or how deep this will get. Companies who thought they could switch suppliers from China to elsewhere are now finding other nations getting cases which may impact on their ability to supply products.
Also,  issues of demand as customers stop travelling,  stop using restaurants,  stop visiting shopping centres.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 28, 2020, 09:11:44 AM
Its the not-knowing thats behind this,
I think you are absolutely right about that.

We are not talking about an economic cyclical downturn here, which is the normal reason behind sudden reversals/collapses in stock markets. But there is clearly potential for very serious negative impacts on many industries and disruptions in transportation of goods and people.

So we are not yet in an economic downturn - but we could end up with one! And that really is one big uncertainty  - and one big reason to move into safehavens (and companies producing face masks?). I note that Trump has shifted the potential virus problems in the US, during an election year, onto the shoulders of Mike Pence - you know, that cardboard cutout that stands behind Trump's shoulder, nodding at everything.....

At least it shifts the spotlight slightly off things like Venezuela, Iran, Trump tweets, and global warming - for a while, anyway!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on February 28, 2020, 12:10:10 PM
"companies producing face masks"
Problem there is most, if not all, are made in China.
Markets continue to fall, ftse is currently down another 3% today, Hang Seng down 2.3%
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on February 28, 2020, 01:13:08 PM
Problem there is most, if not all, are made in China.
Kind of ironic - in a way!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 04, 2020, 12:03:52 PM
We are really seeing some hefty swings between, and within, the hourly bars - anything from 200-800 points up and down.

This kind of market, for me anyway, means changing down gears from hourly charts to 5m/1m time frames. In fact, I am trading the same chart structure, but on a one minute time frame, and only during the US session for a few hours (that is all I can take in one go on this timeframe!). I.e. with my laptop on the coffee table whilst watching TV and trading the crossovers.

This is far from my desire, and its been many years since I last did this kind of pseudo scalping - but it is surprisingly fruitful in precisely this kind of market with fast and deep swings. Last night collected over 600 points. To put it in perspective, in normal market conditions I usually expect to wait about 5-15 hours for the market to reach target or stop. But in this market, the target/stop is reached in minutes......

But this kind of trading really leaves nothing to talk about here that is of any interest/use to anyone else, so I won't waste anyone's time and will now be quiet until the situation changes!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on March 04, 2020, 06:47:24 PM
I see there was a jump late today here, could that be connected to Bloomberg dropping out of the Democratic race or Bidens good result?  US politics isn't my forte
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 04, 2020, 08:20:37 PM
I see there was a jump late today here, could that be connected to Bloomberg dropping out of the Democratic race or Bidens good result?  US politics isn't my forte
I don't think one can draw any distinct conclusions related to the US election run-up at this stage. I believe Bloomberg is also backing Biden now that he has dropped out - but the real issue is whether either of the two main candidates, Biden or Sanders, stand any real chance of unseating Trump.

Price movement this week - as shown on this hourly chart -  has only made a half-hearted bounce so far and has been constantly stalling (so far!) at the half-way point of last week's entire drop ( the red dotted line). So I think there is also a possibility that we have only corrected an oversold, emotionally driven, stop-triggering, free-fall from last week that is not actually primarily politically driven - more likely a weak reaction to the Fed rate cut and what that suggests the Fed feels about the underlying threat to the economy and stock markets in general.

Tbh, I also have little or no idea how the markets would react if it became clearer later in the year that one or other of the democrat candidates actually stood a realistic chance of defeating Trump - something I personally doubt, right now. But it is also interesting to note that Biden and Sanders have quite different views and I doubt the Mr Sanders would be greatly welcomed by the rich and powerful in the US - and the stock market would most likely reflect that on the downside. So, if Mr Sanders was a contributing factor in last week's decline then I would think Mr Biden's success would be boost the market right now - at least a little :)

But, like they say  - its complicated! But I just say, that's America! :) 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 05, 2020, 11:39:12 AM
Price movement this week has only made a half-hearted bounce so far and has been constantly stalling (so far!) at the half-way point of last week's entire drop

And price has still failed to move into, and remain, above the midpoint of last week's drop. There is still an awful lot of negative impacts on global economic activity because of Coronavirus. But these negative effects are only the result of activities designed to constrain the virus from spreading. The virus itself is not, as yet, a particularly dangerous disease from a global health perspective. Therefore, one could anticipate a quick return to "business as usual" as soon as a vaccine/antidote is created and produced in sufficient quantities.

However, two things in the US have got me suspicious of whether there is a lot more negatives to come:

1) Why did the Fed cut rates? Usually this is done to stimulate an economy that is sliding into recession and cheaper capital encourages companies to invest more. But we are not dealing here with an economy that is in any way weak. On the contrary, the US economy has been outstandingly strong. And any near term slowdown is purely from the effects of measures to contain the coronavirus. These effects are obviously not going to be lessened by a rate cut! That is a bit like offering cheaper fuel to help a taxi that people won't use because they think it might break down! Offering a hammer to saw a piece of wood! So what is the Fed motive here? Could it be that, behind the scenes, there is a real fear that the market is about to start an escalating collapse like in 2008 and the Fed is trying to pre-empt it by reducing rates before it even gets underway?

2) In a year dominated by the presidential elections, why did Mr Trump hand over responsibility for the entire US Coronavirus activity to his deputy Mike Pence? Could be possibly be so that if things go really bad and the stock market takes a real dive then Mr Trump has sidestepped the issue and can point the finger at Mr Pence. Whilst, on the other hand, if things do go well then Mr Trump can claim all the credit for having passed it to the "right person" to deal with it.

Both issues suggest to me a sense of a "real and present danger" amongst the authorities of a possible economic breakdown if things get out of control - and they so easily could with a shutdown of metros, airports, business travel, etc.

But we are some way from seeing that kind of doomsday scenario yet and I hope this just blows over. But in the meantime, it is still the 1min scalping!     
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kim on March 05, 2020, 05:24:19 PM
Hiya Kaitsu. I was reading your post and when I clicked to reply your name had changed. I like your post,  it has a lot of detail which I might not have considered myself as I have only been looking at price move patterns in my short time learning and not looking at the fundamental reasons behind this. Clearly I still have a very long way to go but I am not in a hurry and would rather take my time learning than try to rush in unprepared. Thank you very much for your post.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 05, 2020, 05:39:30 PM
why did Mr Trump hand over responsibility for the entire US Coronavirus activity to his deputy Mike Pence? C
Could this be why?
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/05/donald-trump-hunch-scientists-wrong-coronavirus-12354925/

Donald knows best!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 05, 2020, 05:53:31 PM
Hiya Kaitsu. I was reading your post and when I clicked to reply your name had changed. I like your post,  it has a lot of detail which I might not have considered myself as I have only been looking at price move patterns in my short time learning and not looking at the fundamental reasons behind this. Clearly I still have a very long way to go but I am not in a hurry and would rather take my time learning than try to rush in unprepared. Thank you very much for your post.
Hi Kim!
Thanks for the post! Yep, I asked for my Username to be changed because it just didn't feel like "me"! I didn't really think about it properly when I joined here. Kaitsu is my real nickname and I am much more at home with that!

Regards the fundamentals, like you, I would like to see more talk here than we do see at present. But it's quite a challenge to generate a conversation when there are not many active posters yet. I think there is a need to boost (active) membership to try and reach a critical mass level, where inputs inspire others to also input - we haven't got there yet. (but we will, i'm sure :) )
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 05, 2020, 06:06:19 PM
Could this be why?
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/05/donald-trump-hunch-scientists-wrong-coronavirus-12354925/

Donald knows best!
He always does!  ;D

Mr Trump has a very blinkered vision that only focuses on business and profits. Anything that gets in the way is a negative - like conservation areas restricting oil drilling, environmental controls over factory emissions, rules against industry polluting waterways, interest rates too high, oil prices too high, taxes too high, etc,etc!

So naturally, he is against any constraints on economic progress resulting from Coronavirus. I guess he feels it doesn't matter how many old and infirm die because they are only a burden on business anyway and get in the way!!!

He is actually right in what he says, i.e. it is a mild disease and most people do recover quite quickly from it and many people do not (apparently) even report to the medical authorities  - and statistically the number of dead from this disease is absolutely miniscule and meaningless in global terms.

But everyone of those that die is a wife, husband, mother, father, grandad, grandmother, to someone - and that alone demands that every authority implements a responsible attitude to fight the disease and attempt to minimise its impact on their own people. Mr Trump has done this by shovelling the entire package onto Mike Pence's desk so that there is a fall guy for failure whilst he himself can carry on pushing the good ole' economy......... ??? 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 06, 2020, 07:28:04 AM
US stocks took another dive yesterday and in the Far East.

In addition to the overall direction, it is revealing to also look at the change in intraday swings. This chart has two sides, both of which are SP500 15min bar charts and with identical price scales. The left side chart is from just before the collapse started and the right side is the current chart.

Those 15 min bars on the right-hand side are swinging up and down by around 200 points compared with 30-60 points prior to the drop.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 06, 2020, 07:42:26 AM
Thats quite some change.  I would imagine a lot of retail traders have been wiped out by these moves
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 06, 2020, 08:23:19 AM
Thats quite some change.  I would imagine a lot of retail traders have been wiped out by these moves
It is certainly not a market for the faint-hearted at the moment!

It demands a ton of faith in one's charting to ride those swings!

It also calls for plenty of breathing space when setting stop levels. That is one reason why I drop to lower TFs when any market gets rough like this. Yesterday was a little slower than earlier days and the 1m TF was too slow and so I moved up to the 15 min TF. Entering only in the main direction and using entry signals off the lower TF generally works quite reliably in my experience - and has certainly been reliable with SP500 in recent times.

However, I am not suggesting any kind of MA crossover system here, I do not believe they work in any market conditions consistently over time. As I've mentioned before, I just look for bite-sized chunks out of the overall moves. Sometimes I miss out on good moves (like last night's drop!) but on the other hand I still get my "chunks" in a ranging market when the longer term trades are going nowhere.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 09, 2020, 10:22:42 AM
A rare occasion indeed that we start a new week on Monday morning with:

** U.S. stock futures plunged 5% to hit their daily down limit and halt trading
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 09, 2020, 01:56:28 PM
Trading just restarted.  Dow down 7.5%, SP500 also down
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 09, 2020, 10:36:51 PM
Not much change,  SP currently 7.6% down on the day and Dow 7.8%.
Fall out between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil production seems to have been a big driver, with oil down 30% at one stage today.
 I hope tomorrow brings better news
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: TurdBo on March 09, 2020, 10:41:20 PM
Somebody previously wrote "its not the general cycle events thats driving markets down".

In my opinion it is exactly that. Let me explain what i mean.

For over 10 years e have had central banks pumping money into the systems. This artificial stimulous made the usual 5-8 years a short term cycle last extend to todays 12 years. In the past 100 years there were very little times markets as bullish for as long as they had been the last 12 years.

Only uf you take inflation in then things dont sum up anymore. Barely any inflation anywhere but the securities explode in book value. Yields went down from a 100 year average of around 5% to now not even 2%.

What does that mean a yield of less than 2%? That means that any invested money needs 50 years to pay for itself. A investment that needs your entire working life (17 till 67) to pay itself of? Is that an investment or is that "throwing away your life abd opportunities"?

Give it a thought. We are the end of a boom cycle. So many zombie companies, you can count them by the thousands only around you, without even making any deeper research.

Now you may ask why now?

Well its simple. All that was missing the last 2 years for this crash to come was a catalysator strong enough to disturb the "every say business" and strong enough to create fear in investors AND the average person.

Why is that so important?

A crisi is never a crisis if only specialized persons have fear. A crisis is when everybidy is fearfull, even the average-joe sho do not know anything about investment, trading and speculating.

Because the average joe is the bread and butter of any financial market, it is only a crisis when average joe believes that tomorrow will be worse than today.

See the logic, average joe us scared, stops spending, car sales go down, less vacations in expensive holiday resorts, less work means less incoke for everyone, less income means less spending means even less income, means even less spending and even less income. Its a deathy cycle that once it starts can only be finished when it fullfilled its purpose: kill zombie companies, make space for fresh new ones and start from scratch: the cycle starts again from its beginning.

The catalysator, that can create enough fear in investors and the average joe, i mentioned before: at the moment its just a virus which disturbs every day to day business, but that little disturbance already brajes the necks of weak companies (zombie companies= no brain, only exist because nobody cared to kill them yet).

But dont be fooled, saying corona is fault. No it usnt, its just a catalysator which comes in a time when everythibg is perfectly set for the inevitable crash anyways.

The oil crash is also nothing more than a symptome and a short term catalysator for todays events.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 10, 2020, 07:35:35 AM
Good morning,  that's quite some first post.  :)

I totally get your point about how some crisis only really affect a small number of companies,  your zombie companies,  who have been badly run for years and for whom the current situation is just the straw that broke the camels back.  My thoughts went immediately to UK airline Flybe who recently went into administration.  I thought it said a lot that Ryanair shares immediately went up, a company who will no doubt lose business as fewer customers travel but who are so well run that you could bet your house on them coming back stronger when things return to "normal".

Times like now are when people like Warren Buffet come to the fore, looking for purchases at bargain prices that will reap rewards for years to come. For him, this is not just a crisis it's an opportunity.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 13, 2020, 03:19:31 PM
Makes one feel kind of lonely, like Adam patiently waiting for the dove to bring back the branch, and maybe I am indeed the only fool in the entire world right now (it certainly feels like it), but I have decided to start feeding my longer term assets back into share funds. Slowly, one slice at a time......

We have an influenza-type problem, that's it. A rather nasty one, but still........ It will fade as the next few months roll by (as it already seems to be doing in China) and by this time next year there will be a vaccine for the vulnerable for the next possible break-out - and where will SP500 be then? What's your guess (given a Trump victory in November)?

On the other hand..........
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 13, 2020, 03:35:49 PM
If history repeats itself, stocks and indexes will soar to new highs within months,  if not weeks, of the situation ending.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 13, 2020, 04:10:26 PM
If history repeats itself, stocks and indexes will soar to new highs within months,  if not weeks, of the situation ending.
Well it wouldn't surprise me. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the economic condition in the US or elsewhere globally. And a good clear out like we are having is a good thing.

But i stress that i am only talking long term and not about short term trading positions.
I have not been active for the last couple of days because spiking means stops have to be 500-1000 points to be meaningful and that is outside my trading method parameters. But it was great up till then and it is rather nice to sit and watch for a while until we start to stabilise a little....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 15, 2020, 10:28:59 PM
Another Fed cut today, to zero.
Followed talks with Japan, EU, UK, and others.
Lets see what effect this has, if any
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 16, 2020, 06:58:17 AM
Update;
The Fed has slashed its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point to nearly zero. It also announced it would purchase more Treasury securities to encourage lending to try to offset the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The central bank said the effects of the outbreak will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook.
The Fed also said it will purchase 500 billion dollars of Treasury securities and 200 billion dollars of mortgage-backed securities to smooth over market disruptions that have made it hard for banks and large investors to sell Treasuries. The disruptions bumped up the yield on the 10-year Treasury last week, an unusual move that threatens to push borrowing costs for mortgages and credit cards higher. It also said it has dropped its requirements that banks hold cash reserves.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 17, 2020, 01:49:32 PM
A visual on volatility!

Take a look at this chart! Both sides are the 1-hour SP500 and have identical scales. The left side is just one month ago, and the right side is the present!

Look at those ranges! Doesn't that just say it all!...........................
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 19, 2020, 05:27:59 PM
We seem to have run out of direction with SP500 this week. Sure, there is abundant movement up and down - and points in their thousands each way. But we are just gyrating around last week's low set in the morning of the far east on Friday the 13th!

With oil prices on the floor, interest rates at zero, bundles of promised financial support from governments around the world, and Corona virus on the wane in China, who knows where we should be right now, or what more could happen!

So the short term swinging on 15m/1m charts for a few hours in the evening is all I can conjure up right now. But the month is shaping up real good. 99% winners with a top trade of over 700 points - so I am smiling (and getting a lot of other things done during the day!)  ;D 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 19, 2020, 05:55:16 PM
Very tasty wins there!
Strange times, we are very much in uncharted water here. Markets hit rock bottom then,  bang, its a new rock bottom, followed by another.
Even safe havens aren't working as people chase liquidity instead.
Its easy to hear politicians speak about vaccines just around the corner and crushing the virus, but each day brings new cases and more deaths.
Picking short trades as the charts swing one way, then the other, might be the only honest way to go, certainly seems to be paying off for you.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 19, 2020, 08:35:44 PM
Picking short trades as the charts swing one way, then the other, might be the only honest way to go, certainly seems to be paying off for you.
I think this an issue that has two distinct sides: The market's charactistics and the trader's characteristics.

At the present time one could argue that long term trading is much better. One can look at GBPUSD, EURUSD, EURGBP, SP500, USOil, and many other instruments and see big one-way moves with no pauses along the way - but how often do these markets move like this? I think most markets spend most of their time ranging. Some estimates claim that markets trend only about 20% of the time.

So the reality is that although there is big money to be made in riding these big moves, there is a risk that much of it is given back during the indecisive ranging periods.

The other element is the trader. From what I have read on various forums, it would seem that most traders have a personal comfort zone regarding their trading horizons. Some cannot even think of trading with a time dimension of less than weeks and months, whilst others are more comfortable with 2-3 days trades and others look at tick charts. I think it is important for traders to recognise their own comfort zone and build their trading methods around it.

Personally, I don't like always having trades open whereas others promote the idea of always in the market. I.e. a portfolio-style approach. Both are OK, I think!

But I like to analyse my trades at the start to also include the exits.  I find this not only suits my personality and circumstances, but it also helps to make profits in both trending moves and the more normal ranging. But this is just a personal strategy.

So I wouldn't want to appear to be recommending anyone to take short-term moves as a general rule! On the contrary, I think there is more chance of successful trading with daily or 4H trading charts.

It just happens that SP500 is in a particularly volatile period but has also paused in its overal direction (for now). This means longer term trades need stops of some 1000-2000 points just to avoid being hit on spikes in either direction. I can't trade like that. But the volatility in these moves is so great at present that a 15m chart is actually just like a 1-hour chart in normal times - and even then safety stops need to be some 500-800 points away - but the rewards come fast, when they come and so one can watch it "live" as it happens and therefore stops become rather irrelevant except as safety nets or "air bag" stop - just in case!

I'm waffling......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 19, 2020, 09:23:52 PM
As the discussions continue concerning the various virtues and problems of social distancing v. herd immunity, there is a growing number of  model-based projections of how the spread of the coronavirus is likely to develop.

It seems most countries around Europe are looking at a peak infection rate around May-July. If this is so then one should also be able to anticipate the same exponential growth and peaking in the US - possibly even later towards the autumn!

The industrial and economic problems with infections are not just about which companies are going to "go under" due to lack of customers. There is also the impact of a huge number of employees on sick leave. This will easily affect logistics and production facilities, energy suppliers, health services as well as the entire service and retail sectors. When disruptions occur in production and delivery these will be further aggravated by accelerated hoarding in areas such as medicines and foodstuffs.

Added to that, although clinical trials of a vaccine hve apparently already started in the US, it is not likely to be approved and available in sufficient quantities prior to this peak infection period - and maybe not until a long time after that.

When putting all that together, I don't see much scope for a sudden rebound in SP500 except maybe for a limited corrective bounce. I think we haven't seen the worst of this yet in spite of government and central bank monetary and fiscal support activities. 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 20, 2020, 02:49:14 PM
Quite surprising really that we have not continued last week's downtrend on SP500 this week at all. Yes, there has been a 3000 point range, which is pretty heady stuff, but looking at the attached chart, we have just been rotating around the lows of last Friday at approx 2400. Are we seeing some optimism in the fact that China does not appear to be finding any new domestic coronavirus cases? As well as the promise of huge government assistance globally?

It may be so, and we may even see a rare up-day today into the week's close. But if so, is it anything more than profit-taking! I might take a quick long if the 15min chart is that way inclined later today, but on the whole I am very wary of any buying at all here. The situation and mood can change so fast and so deep.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 20, 2020, 07:13:57 PM
Another classic sell signal on the 15M chart. Although the market had started the day looking a little brighter, there just wasn't any buying interest at all - which meant......

Looking at the 15M chart we had moved back below the MA band (which also brought the 1H chart back into negative) and then moved back up a bit to test that last Friday low level at 2400 four times in consecutive bars and failed to close above it! This was a classic sell with a relatively close stop above that 2400 level.

Closed out with another 300+ points to end the week.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 21, 2020, 05:41:35 AM
When putting all that together, I don't see much scope for a sudden rebound in SP500 except maybe for a limited corrective bounce. I think we haven't seen the worst of this yet
Yesterday (Friday) witnessed another leg down in stock markets. The impact of Coronavirus is indeed still far from over or even under control.

It was a shock to me to realise, according to this BBC article, that the virus has wiped out ALL the stock market gains made since Mr Trump became president! The stock market is his beloved baby and i can only imagine how this is eating him alive!

But reading this article only highlights the fact that countermeasure in the US have only just begun and the impact on unemployment, businesses and health care resources is only just beginning to appear - there is still a long and empty road ahead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51980671
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 21, 2020, 07:45:34 AM
Watching CNBC last night I was astonished to hear that nexr weeks US employment figures are expected to show a jump in unemployment from c250k to between 2 and 2.5 million.
I can't begin to imagine what impact those figures might have
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 21, 2020, 07:48:02 AM
Another classic sell signal on the 15M chart.


Some surprising gains though.  Cruise companies,  a few airlines,  some hotel groups.  And big jumps too, Carnival up 20%
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 21, 2020, 04:28:33 PM
Some surprising gains though.  Cruise companies,  a few airlines,  some hotel groups.  And big jumps too, Carnival up 20%
Report
That is interesting! And those are exactly the anticipated weak sectors!

Good that there is at least some good news!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 22, 2020, 08:14:54 AM
I received an interesting and somewhat surprising e-mail from my broker today.

They tell me that several European regulators have imposed limits on short positions in their respective markets. These limits apparently impact the FRA40 and ESP35 CFD's at present but they are anticipating further restrictions on short positions to come. Only long positions will be allowed and only closures on existing short positions!

Kind of sensible in a way!

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on March 22, 2020, 06:49:44 PM
Not something I've received from my brokers,  at least not yet.
Anyone else?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on March 22, 2020, 07:46:10 PM
This is an extract of the mail:

In light of current market conditions, several European regulators, including France’s “Autorité des Marchés Financiers” and Spain’s “Comisión Nacional de Mercado de Valores”, have imposed limits on short positions in their respective markets
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on March 24, 2020, 04:38:42 PM
And big jumps too, Carnival up 20%
Carnival continuing strongly upwards today as well, +28%.
While this still leaves them -70% ytd, it does make you think.

They, along with a handful of other shares, were on my watchlist but I may have missed the boat (pun fully intended). If only one cruise operator survives it will likely be Carnival. They own a lot of the major brands and cover all price points across the industry, from  booze-cruises to 7-star luxury cruises costing as much as a terraced house.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on April 09, 2020, 08:50:14 AM
Interesting to note that SP500 has almost retraced 50% of the total drop since the highs in February......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on April 09, 2020, 04:21:16 PM
Interesting to note that SP500 has almost retraced 50% of the total drop since the highs in February......
And we did reach the 50% level at (on my price feed) around 2790 and are hanging around this level.

We have also passed above the weekly 200SMA, which is a widely watched marker level, although to be validated we need to close above it at the week's close.

In my opinion, with the intraday moves fluctuating up and down by 200-500 points or more, it is still worth trading the short term TFs if one has the patience and stamina to watch and concentrate on these charts long enough!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on April 09, 2020, 07:40:53 PM
The SP500 is closed tomorrow (Good Friday) and so tonight is the week's close.

The SP500 market appears to be doing one of its frequent compliance with technical analysis issues and is looking at the minute like it will close right on that 50% retracement of the big move.

I believe the market is open normally again on Easter Monday but may be thin markets unless anything significant occurs over the weekend.

In the meantime, Happy Easter holidays to everyone, especially to those who, like me, have a passion for chocolate as well as trading!  :P
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on April 09, 2020, 08:44:35 PM
Happy Easter and stay safe all.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on April 15, 2020, 11:06:48 AM
Nice to see the S&P 500 up above 2800 again. S&P 500 is roughly 30 per cent off its lows and only around 16 per cent below its all-time high now.

Dow rallied more than 600 points to test 24,000, where it went into retreat and finished up 558 points at 23,949.

Some analysts still think there is a strong possibility that there could be another sizeable drop, below March levels, particularly if China and/or the US have a 2nd Covid outbreak following relaxation of lockdowns.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on April 15, 2020, 02:17:16 PM
S&P 500 is roughly 30 per cent off its lows
Is this right?

Using the high back on 20th February (3397) and the low on 23rd March (2181), the current level (around 2790) is a 50% retracement?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on April 15, 2020, 02:31:07 PM
S&P 500 is roughly 30 per cent off its lows
Is this right?

Using the high back on 20th February (3397) and the low on 23rd March (2181), the current level (around 2790) is a 50% retracement?
Hi Kaitsu.

I was referring to how far it  is from its low to its current level. 2181 + 28% = 2791, hence my "roughly 30% off its lows"
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on April 15, 2020, 02:44:45 PM
Ok. Thanks.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on April 27, 2020, 01:53:37 PM
I may have mentioned before that I am currently focused on picking up some stocks & shares.
As its not as straightforward as I would like to buy individual US shares ( I would need to fill out a form explaining my status as a non-US taxpayer), I have gone instead for funds that either track the S&P or that concentrate on different types of US stocks (ie one might follow tech stocks, another older blue chip stocks,  etc)
So far looking good, I'm looking at long term investment here, minimum 5 years.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on April 28, 2020, 09:48:48 AM
The S&P500 had a good day yesterday, reaching its highest level since 10th March. Having passed the 50-day sma at yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 is now facing the key resistance around 2885.
Seems that US investors in particular are hopeful of at least a partial reopening of many businesses over the coming days/weeks.

(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%2Fic-ez-prod%2Fez%2Fimages%2F3%2F2%2F6%2F5%2F4305623-1-eng-GB%2Fusa280420.png?source=invchron)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on April 30, 2020, 03:26:06 PM
Because the average joe is the bread and butter of any financial market, it is only a crisis when average joe believes that tomorrow will be worse than today.
Hello @TurdBo

Re-reading your post and this quote really struck a chord.  The last financial crash was viewed as an American problem until  rumours started about Northern Rock,  a bank based mainly in North East England who were heavily involved in sub prime mortgage loans. The rumours quickly turned into a run on the bank, with television showing queues of customers outside branches wanting to withdraw their savings.
The bank was nationalised by Labour in 2008, , then split in two, assets and banking, and sold to Virgin in 2012 for approx £1bn.

It will be interesting to see how the current situation plays out, especially with the government giving out loans to help some companies continue in business
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on May 06, 2020, 09:45:34 AM
The S&P 500 rose yesterday but closed where it opened at 2868, some 30 points off the highs of the day.
The lack of any real conviction has led to a mixed start to trading for European markets, where Monday’s rebound looks to be under threat.  
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on May 19, 2020, 10:13:39 AM
 A good day for stocks yesterday with Wall Street enjoyed one of its best days this year as hopes grew for a Covid-19 vaccine. The Dow rallied 900 points, up almost 4 per cent, while the S&P 500 rose 90 points, or 3.15 per cent, to 2953, closing at its highest since March 6th. The close was just a little shy of the 2954 peak on Apr 29th
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on May 21, 2020, 10:12:00 AM
S&P 500 hit its best intra-day level since March 6th at 2980 (2985 on March 6th was the high), closing at 2971 vs the close of 2972 on that day. The 200-day simple moving average sits just above but the 100-day line has provided the topside resistance.

So much depends on how the relaxing of lock down works out. Understandably markets are still very nervous
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on May 25, 2020, 07:26:22 PM
Its been a quiet start to the week in general due to Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, but, as usual SP500 manages to put in a good performance. We continued nicely the move that started at the end of Friday and managed to gain 150 pips out of it today as a day trade.

It is surprising how well the US stock market is holding up and gaining back lost ground whilst Covid-19 is still rampant in the States. But there is growing hope of a "V" shaped recovery as the country starts to reopen - and I wouldn't find that very surprising at all.

But we are approaching some heavy pseudo-technical levels here. First, there is the pyscho-resistance at 3000 (we are currently around 2995) and just above that is the Daily 200SMA currently at 3003.70 on my platform's price feed. I anticipate at least a test of both. We crossed back up through both the Weekly and the 4-Hour 200SMA's already back in early April at around 2700-2750, and have been sandwiched between these and Daily 200SMA since then - with the gap closing all the time. A cross back above the Daily 200SMA would be significant.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on May 25, 2020, 08:36:11 PM
I think the  US presidential election being virtually a one-horse race plays a part too. If as expected Trump wins,  then business know he will continue with policies that support them. In the unlikely event that Biden wins,  then we are headed to a period of uncertainty, not something that the markets like.

Anyhow, its been a beautiful bank holiday weekend here in the UK, so I'm going to enjoy the last bit of sunshine while its there.


Namaste
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on May 26, 2020, 05:14:12 AM
I think the  US presidential election being virtually a one-horse race plays a part too. If as expected Trump wins,  then business know he will continue with policies that support them. In the unlikely event that Biden wins,  then we are headed to a period of uncertainty, not something that the markets like.

Anyhow, its been a beautiful bank holiday weekend here in the UK, so I'm going to enjoy the last bit of sunshine while its there.


Namaste
It is certainly looking like a one-horse race and, as you say, that is surely one underlying factor supporting this price recovery.

But the US is not a one-party country by any means and it is interesting why, in a nation with well over 300 million inhabitants, a nearly 78 year old Biden is the best the Democrats can find as an opponent!

It is also amazing how the US can defy gravity with its ever-increasing national debt! Will they ever run out of an ever-growing sea of creditors!

If one ignores Trump as a person then he probably is the best person for president in a world becoming increasingly polarised between the US/UK on one side and China,/Russia on the other - and a crumbling, grumbling, divided Europe in between!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on May 26, 2020, 10:58:33 AM
But we are approaching some heavy pseudo-technical levels here. First, there is the pyscho-resistance at 3000 (we are currently around 2995) and just above that is the Daily 200SMA currently at 3003.70
Well we didn't just test these levels, we simply passed straight through them! :) But not by much yet....

We have seen a good continuation this morning but the US is still to come back from its long weekend. I see no real reason why this improvement should not be sustained but I would not be surprised to see a pull-back, maybe to 3000 or even a bit below before making significant new highs - but this is the SP500, always a rodeo ride!

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on May 26, 2020, 11:59:07 AM
After a good week last week and a decent day yesterday,  US futures are indicating the S&P 500 will recover 3,000 and look to take out the 200-day simple moving average, which would be its highest since 5 March. As I type,  the S&P stands at just over 3000 and looks good for more when the US markets open
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on May 26, 2020, 08:18:38 PM
 
I would not be surprised to see a pull-back, maybe to 3000
We got a pull-back that just touched 3000! Low enough for a fill. But the bounce off that has been rather muted.

Hardly of any interest to anyone, I guess! I think I've lost my inspiration for forum participation!  :(
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on May 26, 2020, 08:58:27 PM
We got a pull-back that just touched 3000! Low enough for a fill. But the bounce off that has been rather muted.
How long are you planning to hold this trade? A quick couple of bucks, or something longer term?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on May 26, 2020, 09:04:54 PM
I think I've lost my inspiration for forum participation!  :(
I get that sometimes as well, but always end up coming back. I wouldn't say forums are addictive,  maybe more about being to talk to people who actually have a clue what your talking about.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on May 26, 2020, 09:07:49 PM
I'm out of it already. It was looking a bit heavy and obviously lacking any oomph on the day and there was little time left to start anything. So i scratched it for a few pips and look to buy lower.
Most of my trades are long positions but my CFD trading is nearly all day trading.

I put my longer term investments in other things more concrete!!  ;D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on May 26, 2020, 09:11:07 PM
I put my longer term investments in other things more concrete!!
Same here. I take it you've also had a good day with stocks & shares.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on May 26, 2020, 09:12:11 PM
 
I get that sometimes as well, but always end up coming back. I wouldn't say forums are addictive,  maybe more about being to talk to people who actually have a clue what your talking about.
Having just wasted most of last Sunday dealing with a nasty troll case (not here of course!), i guess i am just wondering what is the point....... :-\
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on May 26, 2020, 09:15:20 PM
Sorry to hear that

The biggest bugbear I have is the mods who allow trolling, surely it can't be in their long term interest?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on May 29, 2020, 02:07:39 PM
Yesterday, the S&P 500 was up most of the session but closed 6 points lower in the end, whilst the Dow fell 0.6 per cent to 25,400, losing 300 points in the last 45 minutes of trading on news of Trumps upcoming press release on China today
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on June 03, 2020, 03:40:39 PM
Simple chart showing the S&P making slow but steady progress over the past 5 days
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on June 24, 2020, 08:14:40 AM
S&P500 is moving slowly and steadily upwards,  currently 3124.
3000 mark now looking like a support level, hopefully it can push on from here
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on June 25, 2020, 08:28:36 AM
Just read this morning that the recent recovery  in the S&P, 39% in 50 days, is the biggest 50 day gain since 1952.

Times suggest  3 reasons, belief that we would  come out of Covid quickly, that  government  support would lead to a swift economic  recovery,  and finally that monetary  policy  would encourage  buying of equities.

Given that the last few days have seen markets fall as people worry about  a 2nd wave of Covid, it would  seem that things  are on a temporary  hold. Hopefully,  not for too long.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on June 26, 2020, 10:05:45 PM
A bad day for US markets as country  has its highest  single  day outbreak  of covid cases.

S&P falls 2.4% to 3009 and Nasdaq 2.5%  to 3978
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on June 30, 2020, 10:22:07 AM
S&P futures drifting  lower this morning. Currently -0.5% down at 3033
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on June 30, 2020, 09:28:16 PM
S&P futures drifting  lower this morning. Currently -0.5% down at 3033

All change by the end of trading.
S&P500 finished up 1.54% on 3100 to give its best quarter since 1996

Dow ended up 0.85% on 25812
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on July 07, 2020, 02:26:44 PM
This morning the markets have taken back most of yesterdays gains. I would expect the US to follow suit as I can see no real reason why they should continue rising in general.
S&P500 looks overvalued to me, and is IMHO due a correction regardless.
Interesting to note Berkshire Hathaway were back in the markets paying $10bn for Dominion Energys natural gas assets. This brings BH's share of the US natural gas pipeline business up to 18%.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on July 08, 2020, 10:12:31 AM
US markets fell yesterday on the back of further covid concerns and after the OECD said it expected to see US unemployment at around 10.4% through Q4.
S&P fell 1.1% to 3145 and Dow fell 397,  -1.5%, to 25,889. Nasdaq slipped 0.9% to 10,343.



Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on July 14, 2020, 09:48:27 AM
S&P had a bad day yesterday. Fell 0.94% down to 3155 after inching up to 3232 earlier in the day.

Rising Us coronvirus levels coupled with falling tech share prices kicked in after lunch, although the markets are so volatile lately anything could happen today.

I still see resistance above 3100, but in all honesty I believe the tech stocks are very overpriced. If the index should break below 3100, and especially if it drops past 3000, there could be a very large correction within days
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on July 15, 2020, 11:54:17 AM
Hi @Kaitsu hows your S&P trading going?

There's certainly plenty of movement recently, in both directions.

Currently sitting just over 1% up on the day at 3218, but the markets Stateside haven't opened yet so anything could happen.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 15, 2020, 03:44:45 PM
Hi @Kaitsu hows your S&P trading going?

That is very kind of you to ask! @eddieb, I guess the only word to describe it is "steady"! I am not carrying any longer term positions and mainly just day-trading off the 15 min chart.

I haven't really been around here for a while because I kind of have this rather irrational feeling that the less I post the more other people start to post!  :-\  Therefore in that sense, the site does better when I'm away!! Haha!

There's certainly plenty of movement recently, in both directions.

Yes there is - and I think the market is somewhat directionless and prone to sudden news spikes. That is why I currently prefer to trade in/out off the 15min chart. When a sudden spurt starts it tends to keep going for at least 50-150 pips and that is all I looking for at present.

How about you?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on July 16, 2020, 03:17:23 PM
the less I post the more other people start to post!    Therefore in that sense, the site does better when I'm away!! Haha!
I'm  sure its nothing personal :)

My trading is okay. I've been having Internet problems since March, I don't think my provider can handle the extra traffic with so many working from home or on lock down. Sometimes I can't get a connection at all for a day or two, which messes up trading.

Probably lucky I changed my main focus to shares, once picked I can leave them unlike forex. Don't  know if you've noticed but pipmehappy has started posting some videos. I'm always interested in how other people trade and the process behind it.

Namaste
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on July 21, 2020, 08:23:57 AM
S&P500 didnt break any records yesterday, finishing on 3251 just 0.84% up on the day.

Nasdaq fared better, up 2.5% to 10767, but the start performer was the Dow, up 8.9% to 26680
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on July 24, 2020, 09:32:08 AM
Increased USA/China tensions weighed on Us markets, with S&P futures down 0.56% and Nasdaq futures down 1.18%

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on July 30, 2020, 04:53:37 PM
Wow!!! Todays figures show that the U.S. economy shrank by an annualized rate of 32.9% in the Q2, the worst decline since the Great Depression as the coronavirus pandemic hammered consumer spending.

Stockmarkets have plunged on the news. Dax is down 3.5%, FTSE is down 2.2%, S&P not too bad at -0.7%
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 31, 2020, 07:32:05 AM
Wow!!! Todays figures show that the U.S. economy shrank by an annualized rate of 32.9% in the Q2, the worst decline since the Great Depression as the coronavirus pandemic hammered consumer spending.
....and in spite of that we still ended up with an up-day! Just shows the problem of trying to trade according to news!

There was enough of an intraday down move to satisfy the short term traders but the whole picture reversed in a flash on the simultaneous release of the top four tech companies Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet(Google). Apparently the first time these have been released on the same day.

They are companies that are typically gaining hugely on the back of COVID-19. This I knew. But I didn't know until I read it that these four companies represent a fifth of the value of the SP500 companies - that is a major disproportionate impact and no wonder the price spiked!

But that still leaves the other "four fifths" which are at the mercy of the overall state of the economy and it is no surprise to see a drift off from yesterday's highs as that news now becomes "yesterday's" story!

Ho-hum, but ain't trading fun!!!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on July 31, 2020, 08:26:15 AM
Just shows the problem of trying to trade according to news!
I scares me when I see new traders asking how to trade the news and other new traders replying to them with well-intentioned but poor advice.

I hadn't realised that this was the first time the big 4 had released on the same day, that would be a day I would not want to be trading their shares so I'll stick that in the diary.

The share these have of the S&P makes investing in tracker funds difficult, as they all hold a big chunk of each of these. If one sneezes the whole S&P catches a cold and theres no avoiding it.

Like you said, ain't trading fun!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 31, 2020, 08:32:50 PM
After all the news and talk and predictions, we actually spent this entire week within last week's range. We didn't break the high or the low.

A position trader would not be too pleased with that but for short term traders its been a good, and actually rather easy money, week for trading.

Seems the view of trading short term intraday continues to be the most productive - at least for now.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on August 01, 2020, 08:18:05 AM
After all the news and talk and predictions, we actually spent this entire week within last week's range. We didn't break the high or the low.
Thats been the story of late. No real sense of direction, just a few day up then a few days back down again.
I'm actually finding longer runs in forex, especially as the USD has been falling against most majors in recent weeks.
The US analysts seem to be warming to a possible Biden win, seeing him as more palatable than Sanders and less inclined to break up or legislate against Big Tech, so hopefully there won't be too many shocks in store.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 01, 2020, 01:38:02 PM
Thats been the story of late. No real sense of direction, just a few day up then a few days back down again.

Exactly! And I can't help wondering why that is! If one considers the general state of the US economy, the battles with Big Tech and China, Biden's lead in the polls and the time lapse before a COVID 19 vaccine could reach the most part of the population, then there is no logical reason why the SP500 is still up where it is!

It is difficult not to indulge in conspiracy theories wherein the large corporates and high-wealth individuals are tactically buying into vulnerable dips before they can develop into a "scare" sell-off and thereby keeping it supported - and then gently selling off again once it has regained its high ground. I don't know if that is possible even given the number of billionaires and huge corporates in the US but I guess, if coordinated it could work - it is strange how so often the rallies occur at times when the market is otherwise off-guard or in thin volumes or in a technical "oversold" condition, such as yesterdays' closing hours on the week.................................
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on August 01, 2020, 03:31:55 PM
The S&P500 is distorted by 4 big players,  Alphabet,Apple, Microsoft  and Amazon, who collectively have contributed 6% points growth to the S&P this year, helping the S&P overall to remain at pre-Covid levels.
If one of these four were to hit a sticky patch, and I would personally be wary of Apple who haven't truly innovated in years and are heavily dependent on a weak US market, then the S&P could suffer disproportionately.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on August 10, 2020, 04:04:42 PM
Reuters report that U.S. job openings increased in June but remained below their pre-COVID-19 pandemic level, supporting the view that it could take the labor market years to absorb the tens of millions of unemployed people.
The Labor Department said that job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose 518,000 to 5.9 million on the last day of June.
This followed news last Friday that the economy created 1.763 million jobs in July, decelerating from a record 4.791 million in June. The economy has regained 9.3 million of the 22 million jobs lost between February and April.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on August 21, 2020, 03:52:55 PM
it is only a crisis when average joe believes that tomorrow will be worse than today.
An excellent point @TurdBo .
How many times do we see 'experts' or politicians warning us that doom and gloom is just around the corner, only for things to pretty well continue as normal?
If Joe Public carries on spending, the economy continues on its merry way. Conversely, if Joe Public stops spending even when the experts say all is well then the economy gradually grinds to a standstill.
This is in part evidenced by current events in the UK. We have one of the lowest return-to-work rates in the world post-Covid because Joe Public does not feel safe, despite government encouragement. Joe is keeping his money in the bank in case things get worse, so restaurants, bars, cinemas, etc, continue to struggle.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on September 04, 2020, 07:31:58 AM
It was a bad day yesterday for the tech stock. Apple down 8%, Tesla down9%, and Microsoft down 6%, dragging the whole index down by 3%.
From what I can see, it seems no more than a sell off by traders cashing in on big rises so I would hope for a bit of a pick up today.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on September 04, 2020, 08:58:16 AM
From what I can see, it seems no more than a sell off by traders cashing in on big rises
That is what I am reading in the commentaries. But it could go either way post-NFP today. In the old days, NFP was more a indicator of possible Fed action on interest rates, but that is not a big issue anymore in this era of small iterative rate movements - but, instead, NFP is now becoming a big measure of the rate of return to "normal" and beyond. So today could see a big move in index markets if there is anything very unexpected.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on September 08, 2020, 10:24:26 PM
 The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2.3%, over 600 points, on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 fell 2.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 4.1%.

The Nasdaq officially entered correction territory, falling 10% in just the last three days of trading.

The tech sell-off continued on Tuesday, dragging the market lower as investors once again rotated out of hot Nasdaq stocks: Shares of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet fell more than 3%, while Apple dropped over 6%.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on September 09, 2020, 09:41:41 AM
Tesla continued their tumble down yesterday, down a whopping 21%.
From a price of $498 on 31st August they are down to $330 at close of Tuesdays US trading.
My heart goes out to all the retail traders who jumped into this recently and bought near the top, likewise the youngsters who bought this via Robinhood and similar apps
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on September 10, 2020, 02:31:45 PM
A bad past few days trading for a lot of people, however not everyone is feeling too concerned about it.

Invesco this week called the Nasdaq’s sharp decline a “healthy period of consolidation” while fund manager Lord Abbett said that, based on company earnings analysis, falling U.S. stock valuations are likely merited.

Hard to disagree, that P/E ratio of many stocks seem historically unsustainable but the economy is much different now to what it was 10 or 20 years ago, so should we really be heeding historical analysis? Its like comparing apples with oranges.

Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge, an alternative investments firm, also feels we are only having a correction. “We certainly could fall more. But if you’re a tech investor you had to understand that the valuations were very high.”

S&P500 earnings are at a 5-year high, well ahead of expectations and is outpacing other sectors, so perhaps the P/E numbers of the Tech sector should be viewed apart from more traditional industry.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on September 23, 2020, 01:54:07 PM
Teslas woes continue, stock fell 5.5% as announcements at the electric car maker’s “Battery Day” of new, more powerful batteries and the potential of a $25,000, fully-autonomous car "in about three years time" failed to impress investors.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on September 24, 2020, 10:21:03 AM
S&P500 fell again on Wednesday, -2.37%. US stocks in general fell, led by technology stocks after U.S. Federal Reserve officials called on more government aid from the Congress, while reinforcing their stance of loose monetary policy.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on September 28, 2020, 08:09:21 AM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robisbitts2/2020/09/27/whats-coming-for-the-sp-500-in-october/amp/
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on September 28, 2020, 11:52:13 AM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robisbitts2/2020/09/27/whats-coming-for-the-sp-500-in-october/amp/
Interesting article, but..................... is the view right or wrong or even relevant, and if so, then to whom!

The only reason why I reply to this is because it refers to the SP500, which is a very different market to, for example, forex pairs. The prime difference from a trader's point of view is the  size of moves even intraday. By way of illustration, the writer of this article says his "chart work indicates that the risk is heavily to the downside". That may well turn out to be true but nevertheless this market has now moved up some 1000 points from its lows only last Thursday. My point is that, from a typical trader's perspective, how relevant is a monthly view if there is potentially some 500-1000 pips to be made in the short term in either direction multiple times within that month?

What this article sums up to me is that one needs to recognise what kind of trader one is trying to be and what kind of information and techniques are relevant as my tools of my trade.

Since most traders are probably short-term in the sense of intraday to one week timespans, then this article only serves to emphasise the power of technical analysis over fundamental conjecture.  This market may look a global disaster one day and then a space rocket the next....and the TA trader can gain (or lose) from both moves regardless of any longer term view.

On the other hand, though, there are the hordes of personal and professional investors in the real markets that sit on their share holdings for maybe even years and maybe not even look at the daily wiggles. For these people, the possibility of a major drop is very significant even if it just means lightening their portfolios and waiting for better opportunities. In these circumstances this article could be worth investigating and considering in more detail. However, a straight comparison between the years 2000 and 2020, just because they happen to have moved similarly so far, is perhaps a rather thin argument. And if one off-loads a significant shareholding, and then Mr Trump is reinstated, one may find oneself left alone at the bus stop when the bus sails right past without even stopping! :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on September 28, 2020, 03:12:14 PM
hordes of personal and professional investors in the real markets that sit on their share holdings for maybe even years and maybe not even look at the daily wiggles
I would have to hold my hand up here and admit that I fall into this category with regards to shares. My wife, however, is firmly in the opposite camp. She can check our shares several times a day, feeling all the ups and downs as they happen. Way too stressful for me, so long as it gets more or less where I want it to be in 3-5 years (or more), then I am happy.

She also has a minor obsession with trying to buy on dips. Fine in theory, but while you wait for the dip price can continue climbing away from you, never to return. A recent case in point. We looked at Ocado shares in March/April. They were c£14.50 but she wanted to buy if they dipped under £14 which they never did. They are now £28.51.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on September 28, 2020, 04:22:20 PM
My wife, however, is firmly in the opposite camp.
Interesting! Great that you have such a joint interest in shares. That can be really rewarding! :) I would guess that it is also a big point of interest that you both have your own way of evaluating markets.
She also has a minor obsession with trying to buy on dips. Fine in theory

Yep, that is the BIG question! We often hear of buying the dips (for example, as I have been saying about SP500 ever since I came here :D ). But the question is how does one determine a) what is a dip and b) how deep is the dip. That is another area where the TA trader can have a clear advantage over the fundamental guys and gals.

But that's enough from me....................................
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 06, 2020, 08:21:04 PM
US stocks plummeting after Trump tweets that he is ending stimulus talks.
Within minutes of his tweet the Dow drops over 300 points, Nassau 150 points, and S&P 44 points, with 40minutes until markets close
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2020, 07:39:51 AM
US stocks plummeting after Trump tweets that he is ending stimulus talks.
It probably will turn out to be more electoral bark than bite! It is highly unlikely that those negotiations would have got anywhere prior to the election anyway! So Mr Trump shows he is immediately back at the aggressive steering wheel whilst not really changing much at all in real terms.

We did not even fall below the mid-point of last week's range and bounced right off the Hourly 200SMA (which it has done several times recently) suggesting more of a technical reactive sell-off rather than anything more fundamental in its impact. Today is debating day again with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris swapping barbs, but not likely to cause much of a wobble, I guess!

Interesting name, "Kamala". In Finnish it translates as: horrible, terrible, ghastly, awful, abysmal :o :o :o !!!!!

Reminds me of an Indian restaurant I saw in the UK called "Surma", which in Finnish means: Kill, violent death, manslaughter! Not the most appetising name for a restaurant in Finnish eyes! :)

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 07, 2020, 07:50:04 AM
Having read his tweet, it seems he hoping that, by promising a huge stimulus package after the election, it will draw some more votes to him.
Dangerous game to play, but with the polls moving against him he may feel its a gamble worth taking.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2020, 08:58:10 AM
Dangerous game to play, but with the polls moving against him he may feel its a gamble worth taking.
Absolutely! We are well into the electoral "silly season" now, when all the political games, dirty tricks, smears and point scoring are fair game. We have already recovered half of the dip.

Currently, I just look at my SP500 chart as a kind of "Monopoly" board game,  where we just follow the moves and watch for the occasional surprise Chance cards. "Go to Jail" is just bed time! :)   
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 07, 2020, 10:40:59 AM
Are you in WTI at all? Its yoyo-ing around this past few weeks. Some would say that creates opportunities, others would say its too unpredictable to take a risk on.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2020, 11:53:17 AM
Are you in WTI at all? Its yoyo-ing around this past few weeks. Some would say that creates opportunities, others would say its too unpredictable to take a risk on.

I am not trading oil, although I do watch it. As you say, it seems devoid of any life of its own between a cap and a floor.

The cap on oil prices comes from the depressed state of global economic activity combined with an overall excess of supply - but what a vague level to put a value to!

The floor is the fact that current low prices are below the breakeven price for many producer companies and nations. Which means they any further sustained falls would result in taps being turned off and supply reduction to support the price. But where that floor level comes in is hard to define!

The net result is that there are better and more definable moves in other markets right now and SP500 is one of them - but takes up a lot of time and thought!

I am not looking at currencies at all right now. I find them difficult to predict and rather erratic with the US election antics and Brexit trade negotiations coming to a head.

For me, the SP500 is the only game in town right now - and it is certainly enough! ..Especially with our young lady coming up to 9 months already:

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 07, 2020, 05:29:19 PM
Nice healthy start today for the SP, up 1.5%. Likewise the Dow and  Nasdaq. Looks like Trumps tweet yesterday has been brushed aside and things are on the up again.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2020, 05:41:05 PM
Nice healthy start today for the SP, up 1.5%. Likewise the Dow and  Nasdaq. Looks like Trumps tweet yesterday has been brushed aside and things are on the up again.

Yes, now that we have climbed back above last week's high we can say this is yet another example of "buy those dips".  I collected my standard 150 pips along the way (more or less the same 150 pips collected on the way down yesterday!!)!  8)

SP500 is trading quite technically nowadays, which is nice. This hourly chart shows the touches along both the 4-hour and 1-hour SMA's and shows the regular dips that have (so far) been worth buying into.

I know these charts never get more than 2 views, but I post it anyway!  ;D

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 07, 2020, 05:50:27 PM
Thats a tidy trade, quick in and out.
Seems  like it's creeping up slowly bit by bit, nothing wrong with that as it offers plenty of opportunities.
I'm surprised more retail traders don't trade indexes, I find them more stable than forex pairs. I suppose forex just gets a lot more hype.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2020, 06:48:53 PM
I'm surprised more retail traders don't trade indexes, I find them more stable than forex pairs.
So do I. And when a move starts it continues much further than the normal currency moves in the short term. But I guess one problem is the potential size of these moves!

As a very rough rule-of-thumb I think of 20 pips on a currency pair equating with about 200 pips on SP500. And since the pip size is roughly the same on both that means 10x the risk factor with SP500 - roughly! But the upside is that the profit potential is more than plenty for almost any trader!

There are other indexes that don't witness such big swings but some are only open for part of the day and others don't seem to trade so well technically - at least in the way that I analyse my charts! :)

I guess you, @eddieb, mainly look at FTSE?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 07, 2020, 07:00:33 PM
I guess you, @eddieb, mainly look at FTSE?
Actually, no. I get upset enough watching my FTSE shares tumbling without playing the index as well.
Dax is my preferred index.  It tends to "be its own man" by which I mean its less influenced by UK or US and more concerned with the German economy. It seems to shrug off outside factors and, as the powerhouse of Europe, has a good, solid, reliable marketplace for most of its exports. Where German companies do export outside Europe, they generally do so with better products than the nations they sell into so they have good brand loyalty, better margins, and their average client is more affluent.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 07, 2020, 07:17:03 PM
Dax is my preferred index.  It tends to "be its own man" by which I mean its less influenced by UK or US and more concerned with the German economy. It seems to shrug off outside factors and, as the powerhouse of Europe, has a good, solid, reliable marketplace for most of its exports. Where German companies do export outside Europe, they generally do so with better products than the nations they sell into so they have good brand loyalty, better margins, and their average client is more affluent.
Excellent appraisal @eddieb! :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 08, 2020, 07:48:45 AM
Another day, another tweet.
S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished yesterday in the green by some 1.5% on renewed hopes for stimulus after Trump rowed back on comments from just a day earlier and said he was in favour of targeted coronavirus aid.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 09, 2020, 11:08:18 AM
Seems that US markets in particular are starting to factor in Democrat candidate Joe Biden winning the White House and adjusting their thinking as to what that means for additional stimulus packages to help the economy.

Additionally, talks have resumed between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over coronavirus aid plans, just two days after President Donald Trump abruptly ended them, suggesting the Republicans feel they have lost this diplomatic battle.

Hopes that a Democrat presidency would likely lead to a normalisation of relationships with the USA's trading partners, and especially China, are also viewed in a positive light.

With 3 weeks to go until the election, everything is being considered and with every day that passes a Trump victory looks less likely, although you never know.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 16, 2020, 07:26:42 PM
The SP500 index seems to be ending the week with little change. The week's range has been around 1000 pips but we are currrently only some 200 pips up on last Friday's close.

This market continues to favour short term trading with targets in the 100 - 300 pip range.

But it is also a market that is really testing the limits of a trader's patience while waiting for the set-ups to form. Today was a good example with a 6-hour wait before entering.

Patience and discipline, discipline and patience. They go hand in hand and each improves the other. Without them, a short term trader is a ship without its rudder just bowling along wherever the wind blows.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 17, 2020, 07:51:33 AM
A sell-off into the close yesterday /friday), meant the SP500 closed almost unchanged on the week, even slightly lower than where it began.

The week was a poor performance for this index. Looking at the attached hourly chart we can see that it started the week on Monday with a solid follow-through to the upside and remained above the previous week's high. But although both Tuesday and Wednesday remained above the previous week high, they failed to make new highs, leaving a trail on consecutively lower highs.

Thursday was a testing day in which we actually broke down through that weekly high and dropped about 300 pips down to the 200-period SMA (producing a nice +250 pip trade). But we held that line and then, as usual with dips nowadays, we bounced off and back up to that Weekly high line and even closed above it.

I was anticipating an upside follow-through on Friday, but had to wait all day, while it just trickled along that weekly line, until the US was waking up before it came - and then it lasted barely an hour after that (producing a nice +175 pip trade). The rest of Friday was just a lifeless 4 hours and then a significant drop in the last hours back down to that same 200 SMA, to end up overall slightly down on the week.

It is a hard call what to expect next week. The charts remain positive to neutral but this week's poor performance with its inability to make new highs in spite of remaining in positive territory does not bode well. This week saw a subtle short-term change from just buying dips to trading both short and long. I suspect this will continue into next week.

We are certainly not yet seeing that major October sell-off as described in that Forbes article posted earlier, in fact we are significantly higher at present - but we are only half way through the month so far......

The US election is a tight race, Brexit trade negotiations are producing nothing but a mutual sizing-up, Covid-19 is ripping Europe and the US apart, economic data is fairly meaningless in the current environment - but the SP500 holds relatively firm.

So, for me at least, the only game in town is to read the charts and just let them tell me what the majority is doing and do the same - but just jumping on and off the tram and bumming parts of the ride and collecting some change along the way......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 17, 2020, 08:53:01 AM
Markets seem to be leaning towards a Biden presidency, although even then there are 2 different scenarios.
If the Democrats get a clean sweep, winning Congress and the House of Representatives as well, then a larger stimulus package is expected. Increases in corporation tax would be expected to be offset by a faster growing economy, and policy expectations would be clearer.
If they don't win all 3, Republicans can block policies making expectations harder to predict. A stimulus package is likely to be a compromise, leading to a slower recovery.
How either scenario affects Big Tech is anyone's guess. A recent report for the Democrats recommends either breaking up or policing them much more than at present, although its more likely Biden would rather maximise tax collection from them. A Trump win could be disastrous for Big Tech, as there is a likelihood he would want revenge for those who have fact-checked or removed posts from him and his supporters.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 17, 2020, 05:11:42 PM
Markets seem to be leaning towards a Biden presidency, although even then there are 2 different scenarios.
If the Democrats get a clean sweep, winning Congress and the House of Representatives as well, then a larger stimulus package is expected. Increases in corporation tax would be expected to be offset by a faster growing economy, and policy expectations would be clearer.
If they don't win all 3, Republicans can block policies making expectations harder to predict. A stimulus package is likely to be a compromise, leading to a slower recovery.
How either scenario affects Big Tech is anyone's guess. A recent report for the Democrats recommends either breaking up or policing them much more than at present, although its more likely Biden would rather maximise tax collection from them. A Trump win could be disastrous for Big Tech, as there is a likelihood he would want revenge for those who have fact-checked or removed posts from him and his supporters.
Yes, that just shows how many scenarios are around, and any of them are entirely possible! Not much chance of a viable prediction on direction based on fundamentals and politics right now!  :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 19, 2020, 07:55:49 AM
We opened this week pretty much where we left it last Friday in a fairly neutral state, and have drifted up to an even more neutral state! :)

As we can see from the hourly chart below, in these early hours of European time, we are right on the midpoint pivot of last week's range and wedged between the descending line of last week's progressively lower highs and the ascending hourly 200-period SMA, which we successively bounced up from on Thursday and Friday.

The attached daily chart also shows a rather stalled market. We fully recovered from the Coronavirus collapse, reaching a peak in early September. But since then we have failed on the subsequent rally to exceed this point - at least, so far............

Is this neutrality a symptom of the political uncertainty of the US election outcome, combined with the economy uncertainty of the impact of COVID-19? Or is it just due to a temporary absence of new input factors to feed on? I suspect the latter. Markets are full of traders itching for a reason to trade and managers looking to adjust portfolios. So the one definite thing we can be sure of is that the market is not just going to sit here for the next two weeks or even until we get a vaccine....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 19, 2020, 08:25:30 AM
Not having trading the SP500 much, I dont know how big a factor past US elections have been, especially ones that were as close as this one.
Add in the covid effect and its easy to understand any reticence traders may have.
However, a clear election result either way would be helpful as would the announcement of a successful vaccine.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 19, 2020, 08:53:29 AM
The SP500's daily ATR has plummeted for several days
and it really seems there is little conviction in the latest
'bull run'. I detest the misleading language of the media
painting every turn of 'the market' as a massive story
of bull markets and bear markets.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 19, 2020, 09:44:57 AM
Add in the covid effect and its easy to understand any reticence traders may have.
Yes I agree. However, sometimes markets can also be read according to what is not happening! In the case of COVID-19, why are the markets not a whole lot lower than where we are? There is clearly an underpinning optimism for the future, which is probably based on a near-term vaccine solving the problem.

I detest the misleading language of the media painting every turn of 'the market' as a massive story of bull markets and bear markets.

Same here! I guess that is their job, but it does not help one to keep a clear head! Anyone close to markets is looking for what is going to happen next and feel a need to have an opinion on it, too. But neutral is also a view and often the true situation - but who wants to here or read about that!! :D

Personally, I think if one is going to trade based on technical analysis then one has to also remain focused on what is the underlying principle justifying TA. I.e. that whilst comments and views tell us what others are thinking about the markets, TA is telling us what other participants are doing in the markets - and that is what counts for me, what the majority of participants is doing. That, afterall, is what drives the price. Or as @thescruff would say: "Trade what you see!"
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 19, 2020, 12:40:59 PM
probably based on a near-term vaccine solving the problem.
There's certainly been a lot about this possibility on websites on Sunday.

Videos of Pfizer manufacturing vaccines ahead of approval, lots of talk that the Oxford vaccine will be ready late December or early January.
Also, quicker, more accurate test kits which may help the travel industry in particular
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 19, 2020, 01:26:38 PM
 
Videos of Pfizer manufacturing vaccines ahead of approval, lots of talk that the Oxford vaccine will be ready late December or early January.

Yes there is plenty of promising talk, but I guess this is not just a question of when the vaccines appear but also what will be the priorities in their allocation. It seems clear that there will be insufficient for everyone immediately. So, after the obvious priority of health workers directly involved with COVID cases, is it going to be the politicians, or the army, or the leaders of industry, etc. The priorities and the timetables are really unknown factors!

Meanwhile, I bought SP500 this morning - and scratched it almost immediately for a few plus pips - and it has done nothing since for some hours (again!). I wouldn't be surprised to possibly see an early push down in the US towards the Friday close, but where it will go from there, or from here?..................................hmmmm  ???
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on October 19, 2020, 04:10:13 PM
A flatish day everywhere you look today.
We keep hearing rumours of vaccines, then the number of covid cases goes up and any optimism gets wiped out. This is a difficult time for traders, temptation to trade when they should really sit on their hands.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 19, 2020, 05:29:55 PM
Not having trading the SP500 much, I dont know how big a factor past US elections have been, especially ones that were as close as this one.
Hi @Caesar,

This chart appeared in my inbox just now. Quite an interesting pictorial of how the US SP500 has performed under the various presidents back to George Bush Snr.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 19, 2020, 05:41:58 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to possibly see an early push down in the US towards the Friday close, but where it will go from there, or from here?..................................hmmmm 
Well we got the push down to Friday's close.....eventually!

And we seem to be hovering here with no clear direction. Technically, it should move lower but somehow the price action is very erratic and indecisive. It has been a tricky day and I've ended up so far with three trades only totalling around 90 pips because I've been jumping in and grabbing what's left on the table. Both shorts missed my targets by a few pips and then bounced sharply back.

We are really testing this 200-period SMA yet again and if we stay below then we will almost certainly see more on the downside. But its Monday and its green and I'm content with that so I'll probably call it a day here!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 19, 2020, 06:28:45 PM
I almost feel sorry for Bush Jnr, starting his presidency with the Twin Towers and ending it with the Crash.
Other than that, an impressive upward line most of the time.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 19, 2020, 08:30:46 PM
Not having trading the SP500 much, I dont know how big a factor past US elections have been, especially ones that were as close as this one.
Hi @Caesar,

This chart appeared in my inbox just now. Quite an interesting pictorial of how the US SP500 has performed under the various presidents back to George Bush Snr.

Great post and graph, @Kaitsu !!!

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 19, 2020, 11:12:48 PM
@BWS  Indeed, Ben, sitting on one's hands - hardest thing to do for the active trader!

SPX awful, look at this 100% divergence between rising price and falling ATR:

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 20, 2020, 07:34:09 AM
We are really testing this 200-period SMA yet again and if we stay below then we will almost certainly see more on the downside. But its Monday and its green and I'm content with that so I'll probably call it a day here!
Just after that post we closed an hourly bar that was entirely under the 200SMA, which offered an excellent risk/reward sell with an eye on a continued fall down to the low of last week's range - that was exactly what happened, increasing the day's haul to a more respectful just under +400 pips. It had been a typically jittery start to a Monday, but got under way in the US session.

Having hit, and overshot the prev week's low, price recoiled back to that line and we have now been trickling along it throughout the Far East session. (see chart)

Is this another "buy the dips"? Maybe, but I will wait for more confirmation before buying. There is certainly more room on the down side. Less than a month ago we were around the  3200 level. My next downside "pitstop" would be around the 4-hour 200SMA at approx 3400, offering around 400-500 pips more room below the current price level. But this market has shown a few examples recently of turning on the spot and reversing - so it is patience time again for a few hours I guess.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 20, 2020, 07:50:01 AM
Nice days work, Kaitsu.
Not much movement so far this morning and I  wouldn't expect theUK session to make much difference. No high impact news expected today from the US either, so things may just drift along today.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 20, 2020, 10:41:16 AM
Nice days work, Kaitsu.
Thanks! :) Monday's are often best left alone until they settle down and yesterday was particularly erratic early on. But, like last week's Monday, there are often good trades to be done.

Not much movement so far this morning and I  wouldn't expect theUK session to make much difference. No high impact news expected today from the US either, so things may just drift along today.
I think you are probably right about that today. There is the presidential candidates' debate on Thursday but I doubt that will have much impact as they are both equally adept at dragging each other through the mud rather than seriously discussing policies and the future for America.

But the SP500 always offers something even on "quiet" days! :)

It is a great market to trade, especially with TA, but it demands great respect from the trader and a lot of thought as well as tight discipline and a lot of patience. It is the hunting season here at present and I see a lot of similarity between successful hunting and trading the market - although I am not a hunter myself and the only weapon I take to the woods is a camera! :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Sharkie on October 20, 2020, 11:21:08 AM
There is the presidential candidates' debate on Thursday but I doubt that will have much impact as they are both equally adept at dragging each other through the mud rather than seriously discussing policies and the future for America.
Sad but true!
Trumps tactics have surprised me. His main core supporter is ultra-loyal and unlikely to change sides but instead of trying to attract the floating voters or uncommitted voters he just continues to do all the things his core love but which repel other people. I would have expected a more moderate, statesmanlike tone at some point but he is running out of time.
Biden meanwhile just has to avoid getting into a bun-fight with Trump or putting his foot in his mouth and he should maintain his lead in the polls.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 20, 2020, 12:24:19 PM
I would have expected a more moderate, statesmanlike tone at some point
I've been hoping for that for four years now! :D I had thought that once he got into the seat he would no longer need to rake the personal stuff...but no, it must be in his genes. From over here the way the US is being run bears more resemblance to Hussein, Gaddafi, and even Lenin! The main difference is that those who say and do the "wrong" thing only get sacked and don't just "disappear"!

SP500 has so far been quiet and slowly drifting up towards the daily pivot level for yesterday at 3462. This would be my first level to set up shorts for a drop in the early US session.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 20, 2020, 01:15:22 PM
This would be my first level to set up shorts for a drop in the early US session.

Thought I'd dive in although price didn't quite reach the pivot level. But it gave a quick 50 pips as a start for the day. Probably a premature exit (as usual!) as I am anticipating a drop back to yesterday's and last week's lows, which would have given about 150 pips. However, one indicator is ringing mild alarm bells that there may not be a significant drop today....so it is 50 pips in the bank and back on the sidelines for a while.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 20, 2020, 01:31:21 PM
Probably a premature exit (as usual!) as I am anticipating a drop back to yesterday's and last week's lows, which would have given about 150 pips.
And so it did in the next candle! :D Oh well, a third of the pips is still ok!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Magyar on October 20, 2020, 02:16:43 PM
Hello Kaitsu.
I like your chart it seems nice and clear, can I ask is this how you usually trade or do you use different systems?
Am I right, you sell if price under 200sma and target is previous week low. Would you buy if above 200sma and target previous week high?
Just curious, not looking to copy just to understand
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 20, 2020, 04:25:23 PM
Hello Kaitsu.
I like your chart it seems nice and clear, can I ask is this how you usually trade or do you use different systems?
Am I right, you sell if price under 200sma and target is previous week low. Would you buy if above 200sma and target previous week high?
Just curious, not looking to copy just to understand

Hi @Magyar!

It is not quite as simple as that. I will do another post here explaining in more detail what I look for. One of my core considerations is the previous weekly High, Low, Pivot(Midpoint) and the previous day's High, Low and Pivot.

As you can see from the attached chart, we have spent most of today between the daily pivot for yesterday (purple line) and the low from last week (green dot- dashed). Obviously, TA lines do not actually "hold" the market when it moves in response to underlying fundamental pressures, but they concentrate and compress trader's attention when there is little going on if they are sufficiently widely recognised. It is the same with S/R lines - if enough people draw them then a lot of people put their open and close orders close to these levels. They get concentrated into a tight zone simply because sufficiently many people watch them and act on them. Therefore they can become self-fulfilling to a limited extent. I will write more later because our dog is biting my ankles and pulling me towards the door for her evening walk.................. :)

Today seems to be the quiet day we anticipated...so far, and trading very technically! I have not been in the market again since that first trade.
 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 21, 2020, 10:54:13 AM
Am I right, you sell if price under 200sma and target is previous week low. Would you buy if above 200sma and target previous week high?
Hi again @Magyar :)
Sorry I am a bit late continuing but been a bit busy and this morning's analysis was quite involved. The end result was to go short and I am just on +150 pips so I've moved my stop to B/E and will let it run. I have a rather ambitious target at the 4H 200 SMA. It may be we still don't break and continue down through last week's low, but it has been here several times already and if it gives way then there will be a significant drop as a result. So I am letting this one work itself out either to that 4H 200SMA or the stop at B/E (Edit: update, the hourly candle just closed back over the weekly low so I closed out for +36 pips. The set-up is pretty much unchanged but there is a chance now that we resume the ranging, so I will wait for another signal before re-entering....)

But back to my chart. The chart that I post here is only half of my charting. My trading is based on three principles: Direction, Extension, Correction. The direction is determined from a different chart which is built on EMA bands and a ribbon. After I have determined the direction from that chart I then go to the chart that I have been posting here, which is where I determine the level to which I think the move might extend. This structural chart that I have been posting is, I guess, what you could call my "Price Action" chart.

The Weekly and Daily Pivots give me the recent midpoints as well as the highs and lows which build a framework around the current price movement. For example, while the price is within the weekly high/low range we are ranging. But when it breaks through either extreme then the trend is either continuing or reversing. So the high and low levels become key points. Then I also watch the  1-hour and 4-hour 200-period SMAs simply because these are widely watched and provide suitable target levels. Again, price can either bounce or break through these. One has to be careful though because the price can often toggle around these SMAs for several candles before moving on.

In addition to the Pivots and SMA's I also add my trendlines and S/R lines which I mainly only take from the Daily timeframe. These tend to be more significant and reliable because they better reflect the underlying trend rather than the intraday trading.

Having identified all the potential key extension points, I select which one suits my trade best. This depends on the timeframe I am using. For example, when using the 1-hour timeframe, moves typically last for 150-350 pips and so I choose an extension point within that range.

The Correction stage is simply identifying a level for my stop which is a) behind a key level and b) keeps my R:R within acceptable limits.

If you look at the attached chart you will see the weekly Pivot going back some time. This is actually on a 4-hour candle chart simply to get more data in the window. But it is the same for the 1-hour because it is static data lasting the entire week. You can see how often price pauses around the extremes and also how the red midpoint line also indicates the underlying direction as it steps up or down from week to week.

So, in summary, I first identify the underlying probable Direction from the EMA band/ribbons, then the possible target Extension point from the structural chart and then the suitable Correction level for my stop if I got it wrong. My R:R is usually somewhere around 1:1 and my win/loss ratio typically around 75%

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 21, 2020, 11:10:58 AM
Fabulous post Kaitsu, so much detail in there. Terrific win ratio as well, I must admit to being slightly envious.

I take it you have developed this system over a fair length of time - I seem to remember reading about a ribbon system 5 or 6 years ago, although it could be totally different to what you use as I don't remember much detail.

One easy take for Magyar and other less-experienced traders in my opinion, is the use of multiple time frames. I dont remember ever seeing any successful trader (other than scalpers) who doesnt use at least 3 time frames in their trading.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 21, 2020, 12:19:38 PM
Terrific win ratio as well, I must admit to being slightly envious.
I think a fairly high win ratio is possible even, in fact, necessary with the short term intraday trading that I tend to do most. But it really demands a lot of discipline and patience! The temptation to chase price is enormous! Also, I tend to scratch trades and then reset if they do not immediately start to act as anticipated.
I seem to remember reading about a ribbon system 5 or 6 years ago,
Caesar actually posted the pdf about the ribbon method here under "Manual Trading Systems". It is still there but has no replies. It was actually me that wrote the pdf, although it is not my trading idea. There was a small group of us on a forum that were experimenting with it but the key lead was from a guy called Raj. I compiled the pdf as time went by from the posts from the members involved. Some found it very useful as a method, others couldn't get it to work for them at all. It has a strong tendency to whipsaw. I still use one ribbon but it is based on a linear regression MA and I use it as a kind of momentum indicator to indicate when a move is maybe running out of steam and reversing. It was this indicator that made me dubious of the possibility of a further down move at the start of the week - but it has turned down again now and that is why I am anticipating a possible break to lower levels!
I dont remember ever seeing any successful trader (other than scalpers) who doesnt use at least 3 time frames in their trading.
I totally agree with this. I look at the Daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts and even occasionally the 15min chart if I am in a trade with no target and manually trailed stop (that is not so often recently!)

Of course, though, one should say that all these issues only relate to discretionary trading, which I think we all do here? An automated system does away with all that - if only one could find one that consistently worked "for ever"!!! :)

We are "enjoying" the first snows here today and will be changing to winter studded tyres on Friday. How the seasons come and go...................
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 21, 2020, 01:28:17 PM
We are "enjoying" the first snows here today

Doesnt seem 5 minutes since you were posting those photographs by the lake. Is there much difference in the winters, and their length, between Finland and where you lived in the UK?

BTW, what is your dog making of the snow?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 21, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
We are "enjoying" the first snows here today

Doesnt seem 5 minutes since you were posting those photographs by the lake. Is there much difference in the winters, and their length, between Finland and where you lived in the UK?

BTW, what is your dog making of the snow?
These early snowfalls melt away quickly up to middle December and then we usually get the permanent winter snow, just in time for Christmas. It then stays until end April. Temperatures are around -5 to -10C with occasional days down to -20C. But in recent years the winters have been noticeably warmer and, for example, this year there was no snow until mid-January. These late autumn months are quite dark and wet so it is great when the snow finally comes and everything is much lighter. :)

Our dog loves the snow - so far! And she has so much hair already that she hardly would feel any cold - her heritage from her Shetland Isle descendants! :)

It doesn't look like we are going to get a drop on SP500 today afterall! So I guess I have to be content with the 36pips from this morning and call it a day. This week has been very directionless and fruitless so far so I am tempted to leave it alone until there are some signs of a move happening.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 22, 2020, 06:07:58 AM
It doesn't look like we are going to get a drop on SP500 today afterall!
And we didn't get the drop yesterday at all - in fact, I don't recall ever having seen such a strong multiple support around that weekly low line as we did yestrerday!!!!!

But now the Far East HAS broken it down - and while I was asleep at 2:00 in the morning!!!! Arghhhh!!!!!!!

This is not the first time that I have wondered should I move to Singapore!!!! :D :D

Now the question is do we continue down to the 4-hr 200-SMA at 3390 - or will we retrace back up through that now infamous weekly low (and daily pivot) at 3440-3445)  ???
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 22, 2020, 08:10:00 AM
while I was asleep at 2:00 in the morning!!!! Arghhhh!!!!!!!
Thats frustrating but at least you weren't in a trade only for it to turn against you while you were sleeping- I  think most of us have had that, or something similar, happen.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 22, 2020, 08:10:39 AM
Disagreement between asset managers and leveraged funds (these are manily bearish) on the S&P500 COT data (barcharts.com) supports the view given from the futures side (Emini CME S&P500) of sustained selling volume matched by price.

Falling ATR continues to provide divergence to any 'rally'; this would warrant a breadth analysis to see how many stocks are actually propping up the index once you took out the FAANG lot...

PipMe
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 22, 2020, 08:54:32 AM
https://stocknews.com/news/fb-aapl-amzn-nflx-goog-googl-faang-stocks-report-earnings-this-month-will-they-continue-to/

I suppose all eyes will be on the FAANG companies' earnings, due next Thursday (29th)...
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 22, 2020, 02:21:50 PM
Thats frustrating but at least you weren't in a trade only for it to turn against you while you were sleeping- I  think most of us have had that, or something similar, happen.
Yep, that would be much worse! Another reason why I prefer intraday trading - I sleep better and don't look at my mobile at 4:00 in the morning! :D
Now the question is do we continue down to the 4-hr 200-SMA at 3390 - or will we retrace back up through that now infamous weekly low (and daily pivot) at 3440-3445)
Well I guess retracing to a high of 3439,93 is pretty close to that weekly low at 3440! :) :)
But where do we go from here? The price action is still negative and we have spent all week in the lower half of last week's range and most of it at the lows of that range!!! -  but without any follow-through. This market is like a yoyo attached firmly to the weekly low line and just keeps bouncing back - at least so far!..............
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 22, 2020, 03:31:11 PM
Thats frustrating but at least you weren't in a trade only for it to turn against you while you were sleeping- I  think most of us have had that, or something similar, happen.
Yep, that would be much worse! Another reason why I prefer intraday trading - I sleep better and don't look at my mobile at 4:00 in the morning! :D
Now the question is do we continue down to the 4-hr 200-SMA at 3390 - or will we retrace back up through that now infamous weekly low (and daily pivot) at 3440-3445)
Well I guess retracing to a high of 3439,93 is pretty close to that weekly low at 3440! :) :)
But where do we go from here? The price action is still negative and we have spent all week in the lower half of last week's range and most of it at the lows of that range!!! -  but without any follow-through. This market is like a yoyo attached firmly to the weekly low line and just keeps bouncing back - at least so far!..............

Question with trading decennial trends like EUR/TRY or SPX (or Gold) is always this: how confident are you in the trend or setting targets when essentially you keep holding on to a balloon that keeps getting higher and higher? At which point do you let go of the rope before it is so high that crashing down would be a very undesirable prospect?

This is more a buy-and-hold question than one for someone day-trading or short-term-trading an index, but fundamentally if you buy dips in the direction of the trend you tend to want to do that with confidence in the primary/major trend continuing in the same direction; what is better about markets that are not pumped to infinity, e.g. Major fx pairs, is that they are more clearly framed by historic boundaries which make trending not so much easier to define but easier to manage in trading terms: there are lots of visible historical levels to be used as entry/exit points, lots of recent and medium-term Support and Resistance levels that have been confirmed several times on anything from weekly to monthly time-frames as being something one can trade up to or down from.

This is why I prefer fx to indices, because I understand the framework much better when a host of historic/past prices is clearly still relevant; when all you have is jumping into a trend that never seems to end, all you do is fear the end, which is no good from a psychological perspective. I suppose that is why I am only a casual dipper into such territory and maintain quite a skeptical view of stock markets in general. Of course, @eddieb  and others here/around the world do very well by investing in it, but it is just not for me - too much noise, too much one-mindedness (bull is best, and bear is bad), etc.

What is interesting from the CMT study that I have been doing, and looking at CFA materials in passing as well (and other things in between), is that there is an enormous law-by-numbers in favour of stock-market investing: there is very precious little afforded to fx trading (or crypto trading, for that matter)
and it is not really taken that seriously. In the CMT, for example, there is very little discussion of fx futures or fx options, for example, whereas we know how important fx futures and options positioning is when informing spot fx trading. The fx chapter in the CMT was miniscule... No mention of carry trades, of rollover/swap trades, of exotic pairs, of anything more than the very basics. That, as an fx trader, is disappointing. I know for a fact that there are successful traders who use fx (exclusively or not, it matters little) as a serious asset class, with due fundamental/technical analysis to boot.

It would be interesting to do a poll of asset/fund/money managers around the world to ask them whether (and why not) they would use/are using
fx as their portfolio staple or as part of their portfolio.

Food for thought... Which reminds me, I need to have a snack and finish revising 'breakouts' on my CMT book.

Ciao!

PipMe
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 22, 2020, 07:18:26 PM
At last we are seeing some fresh movement! This time to the upside. Great to be looking at something different! :)

But whilst I will continue trading this up to the election (and beyond), I see no point in commenting on anything until the election is over as we are likely to be seeing all kinds of influences until then. Even my broker sent a general email today advising of possible increases in margins next week. Not that that is a problem as such, I trade a very low leverage, but it does indicate a wide anticipation of increasing volatility and price swings.

So see you guys then once we know who won!!!


Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 22, 2020, 07:34:09 PM
So see you guys then once we know who won!!!
Even then, if Trump loses, it could get dragged thru the courts
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 22, 2020, 07:35:41 PM
Question with trading decennial trends like EUR/TRY or SPX (or Gold) is always this: how confident are you in the trend or setting targets when essentially you keep holding on to a balloon that keeps getting higher and higher? At which point do you let go
Have you thought about scaling out but leaving a small portion of your overall trade to continue, perhaps with a very wide training stop?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 22, 2020, 09:39:09 PM
Question with trading decennial trends like EUR/TRY or SPX (or Gold) is always this: how confident are you in the trend or setting targets when essentially you keep holding on to a balloon that keeps getting higher and higher? At which point do you let go
Have you thought about scaling out but leaving a small portion of your overall trade to continue, perhaps with a very wide training stop?

been trading pretty short-term of late
and still with the one-in/one-out mentality
because it fits with my lifestyle better to only
have one trade on at a time.

I have used trailing stops but with full size rather than
as a proportion of the initial size; this could work well
but like everything it needs practice.

Because my demo grew as it did, I was scaling up size
and by September I was comfortably doing trades of up
to 4M in size: with something that size if you capture a 20-pip
move on EUR/USD you would be a pretty pleased person
and would not necessarily need to have more risk on the table
(even though if you left a portion of the position on with a trailing stop from breakeven
you would be risk-free). Scaling in and out requires a bit more thinking,
but of course it can have advantages especially if you are trend trading.

Good point.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 23, 2020, 07:38:49 PM
SPX for today: doji and hopelessly immobile (check ATR drop)...
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 23, 2020, 08:12:43 PM
Not totally hopeless! Depends what you are looking for!

Double position with closes @ 129,3 pips and 104,3 pips respectively (ave across both 116 pips) = 233 pips per position size on the day..................

Happy weekend guys :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 23, 2020, 09:11:42 PM
Nice work, Kaitsu! Perfect TA play, hats off to you!

I was being ironic in slightly mocking the cries of 'bull market is back'

from popular news...

:P :-\ Let there be a CORRECTION!!!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on October 27, 2020, 09:18:27 PM
S&P500 is marginally down, at 3390, today.
The U.S. economy has recovered a bit since stay-at-home restrictions that swept the country earlier this year eased. Economists expect a report on Thursday to show it grew at an annual rate of 30.2% during the summer quarter after shrinking 31.4% during the second quarter.

But momentum has slowed after a round of supplemental unemployment benefits and other stimulus that Congress approved earlier this year expired.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 28, 2020, 08:52:07 AM
S&P500 is marginally down, at 3390, today.
I agree that "marginally" is the right word here. With the election only days away and a tight race between the two candidates, and the prospect of a long period before the final result is even clear and established, this is a market that is driven by uncertainty. Either candidate is potentially both good news and bad news for the economy.

Whilst I am not currently commenting on the future direction of SP500 (I am still just intraday trading adn currently from the short side), I think this daily chart offers some idea of where we are.

If we look at the weekly pivot line (dashed red), after a long period of trading above it we are now in the second week of trading down and below it. But the overall general picture is just a market that has slipped into a ranging period, mainly as a result of the upcoming election.

But we have also formed something of a downwards channel that is now meeting the top edge of a longer term support zone. We may well see some penetration of this zone whilst in the current downwards mood but with only a few trading days left before the elections and a weekend, will there be enough momentum downwards to break through this zone - which is just over a 1000 pips wide. (1000 pips is not a big number for SP500).

So we have seen a progressive downwards drift in what may only be a temporary pause in the longer term bull run - or is the bigger picture more bearish concerning the global economic condition rather than just the US? The answer will become clearer in the latter half of next week..........
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 28, 2020, 09:11:34 AM
Morning Kaitsu.
Should Biden win the election and increase the likelihood of a lockdown in the US, it seems likely (based on what happened in Spring) that the FAANGS will get a boost and lift the S&P500 higher.
Whether Biden would actually go for this is debatable. He may have said that this is what Trump should have done, but it would be a very brave move given the polarised opinions in the US just now. I'm also pretty  sure that should Trump lose he won't go quietly nor remain quiet afterwards.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 28, 2020, 09:42:08 PM
Two-month double-top resulting in a huge sell-off
breaking below the 100-day moving average.

Price has returned below the red line level
which is the Jan-Feb. 2020 resistance.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 29, 2020, 08:22:02 AM
Rather than recovering, Wall Street headed even lower in the final minutes of trading.

Wednesday thecDow Jones closed down 942 points, or 3.4%, at 26,520 - which looks to be the worst drop since June.

The S&P 500 shed 3.5%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq fell by 3.7%

Rising Covid-19 case numbers in the US, and globally, drove stocks lower as investors worried that the lockdowns in Germany and France will hurt the global recovery....and perhaps be replicated in the US.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 29, 2020, 08:32:16 AM
@eddieb  yes, John Kicklighter yesterday made a video about risk trends
and the DJIA, Dax, SPX; what he commented on also is how
Gold (and I may add, Silver) has been dropping in tandem RATHER THAN
RISING...

Today the FAANG earnings come out, plus US Gdp and ECB rate decision/press conference...

Could be quite the day!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 29, 2020, 05:14:26 PM
I hope you guys have actually been trading live the SP500? :)

Yesterday was a real gem! A gift to us that have been watching it scraping along the bottom of weekly ranges and setting lower highs for a couple of weeks now. At last it now broke and gave us "pay day".

As the attached hourly chart shows, there was no point at which there was any reason for indecision yesterday (red rectangle).

Today was a slightly different scenario. There was for sure going to be an early test of the downside weakness but I settled for only 200 pips from that move. It was then a more risky situation to try and predict the rest of today. So far it has recovered a little but the swings are likely to get a little uncomfortable.

The impact of COVID-19 on global economies, and in particular on the US economy, is hard to estimate and even harder to quantify in numbers even without a US election to fire things up even more. For a halloween weekend there are certainly enough ingredients in the witches' cauldrons even without more of that bat soup!

For me, I think tomorrow will be a sit and watch after these two days........................

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 29, 2020, 06:00:38 PM
I hope you guys have actually been trading live the SP500
Not me, but I was in both Cable and EurUsd and have done very well out of each.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 29, 2020, 06:36:44 PM
I was in both Cable and EurUsd and have done very well out of each.
That is terrific! Well done! I was also watching EU but decided to keep everything in the one instrument - it is easier to manage in fast markets...

I have been thinking recently that there is generally too little forex talk on the forum and maybe too much about stocks and indices, so I might start to post more on the EU/GU instruments instead (although SP500 is my favourite - but not much point in posting about SP500 when no one here trades it!). I don't really look much at other forex pairs :( EURGBP is not really going anywhere nowadays, for obvious reasons, but hopefully will settle down next year into a serious forex pair.

Are you also mainly trading forex intraday or swing trading over a few days? I tend to trade SP500 off 1H charts but I prefer 4H charts for forex - which also means less work! :D.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 29, 2020, 06:47:47 PM
Generally swing, 4hr/1hr/5m charts a la 3 Ducks, but doing more intraday as the  chance arrives,
Having said that, I've done indices and coms too
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 29, 2020, 07:53:45 PM
If we look at the weekly pivot line (dashed red), after a long period of trading above it we are now in the second week of trading down and below it. But the overall general picture is just a market that has slipped into a ranging period, mainly as a result of the upcoming election.

But we have also formed something of a downwards channel that is now meeting the top edge of a longer term support zone. We may well see some penetration of this zone whilst in the current downwards mood but with only a few trading days left before the elections and a weekend, will there be enough momentum downwards to break through this zone - which is just over a 1000 pips wide. (1000 pips is not a big number for SP500).

Although the recent moves have been a bit fast and furious, it has not done anything yet to change the overall picture from a continuing broad range movement during the election build-up. It managed to penetrate to only half way through that zone whose bottom edge is also includes the low reached in September. So it is too soon to be talking bear trends and crashes - although there are reasons to suspect we could end up with that!!! But it is not here yet in this market (but I am not a buyer here yet, either!).

Here's the original and updated daily chart.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 30, 2020, 07:29:40 AM
We have managed to make new lows on this move in the Far East this morning. There seems little that any good news can do to lift the heavy mood in this market. Today could be a "watershed" day in that if this market is truly at the start of a bearish reaction to global economic conditions then we will break much lower. But if we are still ranging then we may well see some profit-taking lift the market later in the day towards the close since it is Friday and ahead of the last weekend of serious election campaigning.

I am not going to predict which........................... :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on October 30, 2020, 08:53:49 AM
There's a definite lack of direction, but that's hardly surprising given the election is on Tuesday.
I reckon it will bounce about for most of next week, especially if the result is inconclusive and they are still counting postal ballots to see who won. A clear win one way or the other would be good, but we'll just have to wait and see
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 30, 2020, 09:43:45 AM
A clear win one way or the other would be good, but we'll just have to wait and see
I may have probably misunderstood, but haven't some courts given some states permission to included postal votes arriving even several days after election day? If so, then unless there is a clear winner on Tuesday we will certainly have to still wait through most of next week.

At least the turn out is huge this time which suggests that whoever wins is not just the result of sheer apathy. But a strange system where even winning the most outright votes does not guarantee victory.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 30, 2020, 12:59:56 PM
Although the SP500 has appeared bearish, the daily chart is showing some interesting signs of support here. Yesterday finished at its opening level which was also the close from the previous day and is where we are now, today. So nearly three days unchanged even though the intraday moves have appeared negative.

Also, we are seeing some tails appearing here in the same way as in Sept and in July.

The short term charts are still not indicating an up-move but they have certainly moved into a neutral pause.....................
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 30, 2020, 01:23:21 PM
But a strange system where even winning the most outright votes does not guarantee victory
That's how it us in the UK as well, something the Liberals have tried to get changed for decades

haven't some courts given some states permission to included postal votes arriving even several days after election day?
Thats correct
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on November 09, 2020, 04:51:49 PM
Absolute corker of a day today!
SP500 up 2.35% and is now over 3600, Nasdaq up 1% to over 12,000
Mix of finally getting an election result and Pfizers announcement on their Covid-19 vaccine
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 09, 2020, 08:08:00 PM
Absolute corker of a day today!
SP500 up 2.35% and is now over 3600, Nasdaq up 1% to over 12,000
Mix of finally getting an election result and Pfizers announcement on their Covid-19 vaccine

After the CNN headlines and the NYSE bell dies down,
let us put our cool heads back on and truly look at what
is happening under the bullish calls:

https://www.markeTwitch.com/story/the-sp-500s-medium-term-picture-is-bullish-as-long-as-this-one-thing-doesnt-happen-2020-11-09
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 09, 2020, 09:15:20 PM
Since the self-serving 'bullish" headlines
have heralded crazy projections based on
a mere intraday rally, please reflect on this:

1. since the cheery NYSE open today. the SPX has already dropped
     more than 1200 pips;
2. the drop puts the daily candle close (fast approaching)
     somewhere between the September and October tops - no
     "all time highs" here, none whatsoever'
3. we are seeing a triple top forming, not a bullish sign
     for any sane technical analyst;
4. the rally today was actually on minimal volume
     under e_mini SP500 futures contracts, showing the lie
      of a great renaissance for the embattled index.

Don't buy the headlines... do your due diligence.

Stay safe

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 10, 2020, 04:34:21 AM
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/live-markets-s-and-p-500-dow-rally-but-new-closing-highs-prove-elusive-waecdq1hxsh2x6z.html
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 17, 2020, 04:15:10 PM
So right now the USB10yr (short term) is at a previous high - is slightly backing off this past 2 hrs - s&p up this past 1 hr.

My 1st attempt at an image:

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 17, 2020, 04:22:15 PM
Ok - was upside down :)

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 17, 2020, 04:56:18 PM
So right now the 10yr is back up to the line - reasonable chance it will continue north.

Over to the sectors on the S&P - all are red except Real Estate and Energy (although info 15min delay from real time)

The move up on energy may not have follow thru since wti is heading south
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 17, 2020, 05:40:45 PM
Totally had it with 'bull rush', 'market optimism is back', and all
sorts of nonsense peddled in the media at the slightest intraday
break of an index such as this.

Totally overvalued, totally mad, and SO bad value. Please
stop the madness: time for a massive move south!!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 17, 2020, 07:32:43 PM
Aye - more a time for caution.

Today was such a day - the 10yr didn't make it over the yellow line - the S&P flat, the 2000 slightly up, Nasdaq flat.

Oil followed the energy sector in the S&P (etf's) so seems the investors were slightly ahead - energy sector stayed green and increasing.

Bottom line was that the 10yr acted as a good guide for hr1 traders today.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 17, 2020, 09:13:09 PM
Finally, at the close, the reason why I posted this morning that I was watching the 10yr closely.

If price had shot up early in US then that would have encouraged me with a hr1 short s&p - but it was crucial that the Dbl Top be broken.

Oft times the 10yr will lead - today it merely signaled a 'make your mind up day, so stay out'


Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on November 17, 2020, 10:13:57 PM
They don't show this in the films, do they.
Will you take another look tomorrow?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 18, 2020, 09:06:43 AM
Aye -  see a headline this morning re how the 10yr continues to "fade the vaccine optimism" - mention made about the high on the 2000 but it was small and not followed by the rest.

Picking peaks is very iffy work - but no harm in looking out for a little pull back I suppose.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 18, 2020, 07:39:40 PM
Interesting little point - the energy sector over the past 5 days has been the leader in the S&P - (+6.8%) no other sector managed to reach 3%.

Today's biggest loser so far at - 1.13% is healthcare - will be interesting to see how oil finishes up - will it pull the S&P with it?

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on November 18, 2020, 08:46:53 PM
the energy sector over the past 5 days has been the leader in the S&P
That's odd for the SP500. Do you happens to know why?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 18, 2020, 09:39:49 PM
That's odd for the SP500. Do you happens to know why?

For the past 6 months and 3 months energy has been the poorest sector, then from 1 month back dbl the performance of the others. Investors looking for better oil prices up ahead methinks.

In the final hour today energy was the largest faller - oil price was already falling so the energy sector helped drag it down - that's why I was saying to watch oil.

I took 2 wee snapshots 2 hours ago and drew a horiz at where price was at that time on both.



Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 18, 2020, 09:43:03 PM
Ok learning the site -

First the S&P

Then oil both 2 hours ago
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 18, 2020, 09:48:32 PM
Oil came back up to reach that yellow line next candle and fell - and the S&P did the same:

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on November 18, 2020, 10:17:12 PM
I would have expected a bounce off that line, good thing I wasn't trading it could have been costly
 :-\
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 19, 2020, 09:19:12 AM
Aye - it's understandable to have expected a bounce maybe from a TA perspective only - but with the S&P it's all about risk sentiment.

The vaccine news has caused oil investors to buy with the premise that industry will get back to normal and therefore increased energy needs - so right now oil price becomes like a risk harbinger in a sense - just as the financials did back a few years.

Of course the Bond market and the US2000 are likewise - small caps are high return (there could be another Microsoft lurking in there) but coupled with high return is higher risk.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 24, 2020, 01:31:57 PM
Early in the week can be a good time to buy - especially if no bad news over the weekend.

Yesterday def a good risk-on day - Xau/Usd down / Wti up / Usd/Jpy up - only the S&P and Nq  dragged heels.

US10yr just broke down below the yellow line, S&P at 3607 - will the market like the current WhiteHouse news?

Lets see what happens today.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on November 24, 2020, 02:02:59 PM
will the market like the current WhiteHouse news?
The markets generally like certainty, so there should be a decent reaction even though we've known who the winner was for a while.

Also, reports that Joe Biden’s pick for the Treasury Secretary is former Fed Chair Janet Yellen is seen as a confirmation that the top priority of the new administration will be on stimulus.
European markets are looking good, hopefully the US will continue this. Not opened over there yet but the futures are nicely up

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 24, 2020, 06:08:52 PM
Yes Eddie,

There'll be fewer tweets to watch out for - heck I'm even thinking the market will become boring (just kidding).

Investors looking for better oil prices up ahead methinks.

I've seen this thing about energy and risk many times - one thing too - investors are a savvy bunch, that's why I like to check the s&p sectors.

Oil has risen substantially since I painted that yellow line on Nov18 - here's what it looks like since:



Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 24, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Finally, here's what I was looking at on the S&P before it opened at 3607  - I'd mentioned the various risk indicators suggesting a buy day.

And how it traded after that post

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on November 24, 2020, 08:37:04 PM
Nice trade Peterma, are you still in it or have you cashed out?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 25, 2020, 06:08:31 AM
well done!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 29, 2020, 12:24:51 AM
HR1 is mostly for day trading - purpose of my posts is to show how it's possible to think like the market - it's all about risk (fear vs greed).

I do know it's not just as simplistic as as that so maybe over the coming months I can contribute a little bit more - then again it's easy to get out of sync - let's see what happens :).
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on January 06, 2021, 02:19:40 PM
SP500 not opened yet but all signs are that it will likely be dragged down because of fears that a Democrat clean sweep could result in stronger antitrust measures being taken against the FAANGS
Lets see where we are in a few hours time.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: BWS on May 19, 2021, 04:32:03 PM
Following the crypto crash, the SP500 opened 1.5% lower, the Dow down 1.2%, or 417 points. Not a good start
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: eddieb on May 26, 2021, 11:32:42 AM
Following the crypto crash, the SP500 opened 1.5% lower, the Dow down 1.2%, or 417 points. Not a good start

I have just read online that a study by DBS Group Holdings has found that on days when Bitcoin swings wildly, by 10% over an hour, S&P 500 contracts register large swings as well.

They also found that variance of returns on S&P Futures was 42% more than usual on these days as well.

Medley Global Advisors are cautious on any link but said of Bitcoin that it is “firming its grip on markets through volatility, liquidity and correlation,” and the potential for “financial contagion should Bitcoin drop well below $20,000 cannot be dismissed”
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 04, 2021, 05:54:42 PM
Looking for some continuation of Friday's post NFP move...but note:

US markets are closed tomorrow, 5.7, due to today's Independence Day.   

so tomorrow may be quiet and directionless......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 05, 2021, 02:04:05 PM
Looking for some continuation of Friday's post NFP move...but note:

US markets are closed tomorrow, 5.7, due to today's Independence Day.   

so tomorrow may be quiet and directionless......

A quiet day, yes, but the nice thing about SP500 is that even when it is doing "nothing" there is always a 50-pip trade off the short term charts. and so it was today. Early on, the price was some 40 pips below Friday's close and there was a good chance that, on an otherwise dormant day, the market would at least once test the Friday close and a bit beyond. And so it was......

This is my approach for the summer months. Day trading off 1h/15m/5m chart set-ups and primarily in the US session, looking for 30-80 pips gain per trade, and one trade per day, with 100-120 pip stops. Only needs 2:1 gain/loss to b/e and is currently working at about 6:1 gain/loss.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 06, 2021, 07:58:13 PM
Another "nothing" summer's day. The temps here continue to make new records with another 30 degs+ all day. And it is sticky!

But we got a break on the downside early on offering an easy 50 pips out of a total of nearly 300 pips on the move before it began to reverse and climb back. I am tempted to take a long position but it is too late in the day and I don't fancy leaving it overnight. So that was it, one trade, 50 pips.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 07, 2021, 09:33:53 AM
Overnight market retained a positive outlook, although the moves are more of a slow grind than an active trend.

Overall, commentaries are favourable for continued growth in the US stock market based on continuing growth optimism post-Covid, on-going accommodative attitude from the Fed and the diminished fears of possible runaway inflation.

But with short term day trading, these long term factors are only background awareness, and trades can be just as successful in either direction!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 07, 2021, 04:08:14 PM
50 pips already taken on an uptrade. Target was just under 4357 and it just got hit before folding back down to the 4330 level. That justifies keeping to smallish targets in the current climate. No losses yet this month but it is still early days........

That completes my trading for the day and now back to the sunshine and a nice outside meal in the cooling evening air. That is a rare treat up here in the North. I often envy the southern countries for their warm evening air.

And, of course, there is the England v. Denmark EUFA EURO 2020 semi-finals tonight......can't miss that one!  ;D ;D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on July 07, 2021, 06:36:07 PM
England v. Denmark
Are you following England or your Scandinavian neighbours?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 07, 2021, 07:08:55 PM
 
Are you following England or your Scandinavian neighbours?
England of course!  ;D ;D

But I will also be very, very pleased for Denmark if they happen to win. It is always great to see new teams do well against the old established names. That is what breathes new life into sport or anything else come to that! :)

I anticipate a good, active game and predict a 3-1 win to England :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 08, 2021, 07:06:21 AM
I anticipate a good, active game and predict a 3-1 win to England
I thought it was a very lively and balanced match and England were the better side and they should have got more goals than they did. But somehow the attacks just didn't "click together"in the Danish goal area and it took extra time to get to the final result of an England win of 2-1.

Looking forward to a tremendous final on Sunday against Italy. I guess that match will be of interest to at least one other poster here!  ;D  ;D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 08, 2021, 08:34:08 AM
The SP500 market has drifted down again this morning although we are still in the same range that has dominated price movement since the start of July (although that is not surprising considering the long US holiday weekend).

But technically, today's down move has also pushed the hourly chart into negative territory, which is structurally damaging, and suggests we may see some further downside near term before we find new support.

It is an interesting situation because all recent drops have met with immediate keen support and formed a few pin bars and long tails with good upside follow-through. But the hourly chart is looking weaker right now and suggests some market internal weakness in fresh demand. Holiday syndrome??

Will add the hourly and daily charts soon......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 08, 2021, 06:22:36 PM
So we indeed did see some more on the downside - to a low of 4288. An easy 50 pips there and could have been a lot more - but that is not the strategy at present. So that was intended to be the trade for the day but we saw some good buying coming in a while back which took the 15min chart back into positive territory and served up another 50 pip trade on the upside with a double size position.

An excellent day's price action for day trading today, and now its time to switch off the charts, update the journal and enjoy a cold beer in the garden.  8)

Is it really Friday again tomorrow??!!! Where do these summer days go......................
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on July 08, 2021, 07:52:41 PM
A bad day all round for stocks today, but that inevitably brings fresh opportunities.
In the UK there were signs late on that buyers were starting to come back in, let's see if this repeats with the S&P
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 08, 2021, 08:18:24 PM
In the UK there were signs late on that buyers were starting to come back in, let's see if this repeats with the S&P
We did make a reasonable lift back off the lows but it is not very convincing and it does feel that we are just hanging on above 4300 by our fingernails, My hourly chart is still neutral/negative and the 15/5 min charts are flat. But the day's drop is insignificant on the daily chart. WE may easily see another down day tomorrow as the charts stand right now. But can look at that again in the morning.

I am reluctant to predict any kind of near term "trend" right now even though there is little fundamental reason to doubt that the market will continue to grind higher with the usual wiggles and wobbles along the way. My summer strategy is just to spot the start of intraday moves in either direction, enter them early enough, and look for the momentum to carry them further at least 50-80 pips. Just a simple "pips in pocket" strategy that is never going to make anyone a millionaire! :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 09, 2021, 09:41:49 AM
Prices kept to a tight range overnight with a small drift down to the 4300 and then a steady crawl back up to the current level of 4335.

To be honest, there is nothing to add here for today at this stage. All short term charts are neutral.

Since we have house guests this week and next, I doubt I will be trading today at all except maybe towards the close, when there is often a brief but clear move in one direction or other.

But we'll see once the US markets get underway.................

Edit note: Decided to take a quick long position since the London market seems fairly buoyant today. Just closed it for 32 pips as I don't have time to watch it today. Will look later in the US session if there is anything going! 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 09, 2021, 05:48:09 PM
Nice steady rise today. Shane to have missed most of it but can't have it all ways. Been felling trees instead in the heat of the day.
Will look in to see how we finish tonight. The market has been well-behaved this week and the results very satisfactory.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on July 09, 2021, 07:55:48 PM
Been felling trees instead in the heat of the day.
I'm fairly sure I've never heard that excuse before  :)
It has been a good day for trading, whether that be indices, individual stocks, forex, or commodities. Plenty of movement and opportunities to be had.
Enjoy your weekend.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 10, 2021, 11:56:15 AM
I'm fairly sure I've never heard that excuse before 
;D ;D ;D Quite possibly not!  ;D
Lightning had struck one of the tallest trees near the cabin and killed it so it had to be felled. The guy in the picture is our local lumberjack. So we took the opportunity to fell some other trees. It just leaves me with the heavy job of chopping them up into firewood - probably take me about a month of weekends and will be enough firewood for the next 10 years, I think!! Horribly sticky work in +30 degs but then there is sauna and a lake swim to compensate  ;)

Enjoy your weekend.
You too!  :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 11, 2021, 07:59:58 PM
Good luck England! The EUFA 2020 finals are just starting...

But may the best team win! :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 12, 2021, 08:04:29 AM
But may the best team win!
Well we certainly got our money's worth last night with a match that lasted for as long as a match can possibly last with both extra time and a penalty kick-off after full-time!

Although England looked good at the start and scored an early goal, Italy was the better team and just got better as time went by. But how England ended up missing three consecutive penalty kicks at this level of football I will never understand.

But it was an exciting match, complete with the English weather, that could have gone either way at any time - and with a deserved result.

But back to the SP500....

We finished well on Friday with what I believe was a fresh record high. We have drifted off a little this morning. I am anticipating at least one early push higher today but we might see some consolidating later ahead of tomorrow's US inflation data since inflation has been a prominent factor in recent market-watchers' commentaries.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 12, 2021, 08:32:17 PM
After the early morning drift off we have seen a gradual grind higher all day, as anticipated. This started at around midday UK time and actually gave two plus trades on the day.

A comfortable start to the week. Tomorrow's trading will be after the US inflation data release.

 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 13, 2021, 09:45:43 AM
No significant change overnight and seems to be holding well at these levels. I doubt there will be much change ahead of the  US inflation data in about 4 hours time. I am going to wait until after the data release and then see if there are opportunities to jump on a directional move for 50-100 pips....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 13, 2021, 03:25:43 PM
Inflation figures slightly higher than expectations caused a slight sell-off but the market has quickly recovered back to the levels prior to the release.

This, in itself, suggests a strong market with good underlying support at these levels, which should lead to higher prices. But it is also the season for 2nd quarter results and any of those may well rock the boat if they reflect under performance.

Edit: one 80-pip trade in the bag.....

 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 13, 2021, 07:48:15 PM
Bit of a bumpy session today!

End result was just the one trade and the market back in its old range. It's summer time.

Looking a little weak right now so we might see some selling overnight, but will return to this in the morning.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 14, 2021, 08:42:47 AM
We have indeed seen a little selling overnight as anticipated, but nothing significant. It would seem that the higher than expected inflation data has spooked the market a little. Even the first excellent 2nd quarter results from J P Morgan and Goldman Sachs didn't seem to light any fires.

However, even if the inflation spectre is the cause, it is maybe not such a negative since the Federal Reserve is unlikely to react too soon or by too much anyway. But we might just see a more ranging than trending market in the near term.

There was also some negative Far East news with signs that the China economy may be slowing, but I am not going into fundamentals here beyond the markers that I want to remember myself!  ;D

So I am continuing the same strategy except that I am extending the TL out from 50-80 pips to 80-100 pips. Nearly every trade so far this month would have reached 100 pips and more if I had left them open, so there is little point in only looking for such a modest amount.   
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 14, 2021, 04:36:50 PM
The markets been steadily climbing pretty much all day. But I was waiting for the US markets. The signal came early and the 100 pips target was hit in the very next hourly candle. That is it for today, a quick day's work!

The essence of this approach (and indeed all of my trading) is the momentum driving a move. I try to identify a new move and get in early and get carried along with the thrust behind the move as new positions come in and existing opposite positions get closed out. That part is not so difficult. The real problem is knowing when the momentum is fading. And that is why I prefer a fixed target in pips. The target is selected according to the typical size of a move on the timeframe being used combined with a general subjective assessment of the current nature market in general.

Once the summer season ends and the visitors have returned home, then I intend splitting the position size with half of it on a wider target+trailing stop whilst the rest keeps on churning this bread-and-butter fixed target earnings.

This was today's signal candle (without the indicators) on the one-hour TF which was already confirmed on the 15m chart.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 14, 2021, 10:41:22 PM
Ño further signals today and only the one trade. Price just wiggling around aimlessly
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 15, 2021, 08:04:51 AM
Overnight was very quiet and no change in price levels. This will probably continue throughout today due to Fed Chairman Powell giving his testimony in Washington today:

"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration."


May well be a sidelined day today for me, but I will look at it again after the testimony....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 15, 2021, 07:57:25 PM
It has remained a quiet session for most of the day. We got a sell signal a few hours ago which hit the 100 pip target. It continued down to the 4341 level and is now turning back up again. So, again, it is a one-trade day but at least these are giving bigger pip value than earlier days.

I'll talk more about the events behind the moves in the morning once all the commentaries are in! :D

But all-in-all, a(nother) rather indecisive day.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 16, 2021, 08:18:45 AM
Well here we are this Friday morning with prices back at the same level that it has rotated around all week. We closed last Friday around 4368, reached a mid-week high of 4393 and yesterday a low for the week at 4341 - and now we are back to 4360.

Which means there is little to say right now. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments added little to their current view that inflation increases are a transitory issue and that the economy is not yet strong enough to justify any change in current policies. But there were some hints that inflationary pressures could continue for longer than anticipated  due to reasons such as supply pressures.

Other major countries like the UK and Canada are taking a more hawkish stand on inflationary pressures so there is some digression here.

Today is the release of the US Retail Sales data for June, which is another of the major data sources currently under the spotlight and so, again, we are not likely to see much action prior to its release.

So we shall return after the release to see how we might finish on the week and if there is a trade to be made.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 16, 2021, 03:42:32 PM
Retail sales was not only higher than expected but was also a small gain compared with the expected small reduction. But we have also seen a lower than expected consumer sentiment index.

On balance we seem to be drifting off a bit here. But the charts are quite neutral and we may just as easily see a pick-up like we saw yesterday as a further decline into the weekend.

I have no trade here at present with another 5 hours of trading to go before the weekend after a rather directionless week in total.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 17, 2021, 11:08:14 AM
Had a sell signal after the last post which moved down nearly 200 pips into the close. A nice end to a good week.

I have been looking at the readership data at the top of these pages and it seems strange that apparently these posts are read about 50 times on average - but no one comments and any attachments are only viewed a few times. Are there really any readers out there and, if so, why are you reading these posts?? It doesn't bother me, I would just be more careful and more specific and detailed if I really thought anyone was actually reading this stuff! Otherwise, I tend to just treat this thread as a personal blog......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 19, 2021, 07:55:19 AM
The Big Tech sector of the SP500 index has been one of the main driving forces during the COVID era. We are going to see the 2nd quarter results of a few of these companies this week, which may well substantially influence near-term direction if they significantly differ from expectations.

In the background, inflation concerns and the stubbornly rising numbers in COVID delta variant cases globally are creating doubts about the durability of global growth recovery rates.

Maybe this week will be another directionally indecisive week with plenty of short-term moves in both directions. That definitely suits my summer fixed-pip strategy.

The strategy itself has theoretically a 100% success rate so far this month but unless one can sit and watch every hour then that is not achievable in practice. Nor is it possible to reproduce entirely
 mechanically. I have missed signals, made late entries, taken premature exits and varied position sizes - all of which impact comparisons with the theoretical results. So far, the "system" is slightly ahead of the "actual", but I am content with what it has provided so far.................   
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 19, 2021, 05:30:49 PM
Quite a soggy market today, continuing the move from Friday. A couple of nice trades done. I think I might leave it at that today. It will be interesting to see where we end up tonight.......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 20, 2021, 07:33:23 AM
In the background, inflation concerns and the stubbornly rising numbers in COVID delta variant cases globally are creating doubts about the durability of global growth recovery rates.
Stock markets started the week very weak! But although the SP500 fell steadily during the early hours of the US session, it did recover quite a large share of that fall into the close.

As far as I can see, the main driving factor was the COVID delta variant high infection rate which raises concerns over renewed lockdowns and restrictions and the consequent "sand in the oil" which is lubricating the recovery.

As one comment put it: Fears that the recovery boom will be more of a pop than a boom......

However, these fears are just "foot off the accelerator" rather than "foot on the brakes" and represent a bit of backtracking rather than a reversal in expectations, so I anticipate a slow recovery rather than a rout here - but maybe not today. I anticipate a rather jumpy erratic day's price action today and I am going to be very careful where and when, and even whether, to enter a trade today!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 20, 2021, 03:59:05 PM
After a weak start, the market has found its feet again and is looking strong. Netflix 2nd quarter results are apparently due after market hours today and that could create some waves, depending on its content.

All in all, this appears to still be a strong market built of firm foundations despite its occasional sell-offs.

Two trades today, an early buy with a 50 pip target in the UK session and then a full 100 pip target buy in this US session. Both signalled entries but I was too nervous about the early London trade to look for a full 100 pips, which, of course, would have materialised if I had left.

But, there it is, a good day with little stress and a nice result.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 20, 2021, 07:59:01 PM
Maybe this week will be another directionally indecisive week with plenty of short-term moves in both directions. That definitely suits my summer fixed-pip strategy.
Here we are heading towards the Tuesday night close. So far we have seen a notably weak day and now a notably strong day. And where are we now? Well, we finished last week, Friday, at 4323 - and right now we are as 4329! Good short term moves going nowhere!   ;D Love it!  :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 21, 2021, 08:19:16 AM
No change overnight and no clear direction for the London session. The globe is in bit of a mess right now with persistent upsurges in COVID cases and destructive weather extremes and record spending needs by governments everywhere. Can the US stock market just keep ploughing on from strength to strength? Maybe, but not much chance of overheating!!! So steady as we go with the odd step back now and again.

Let's see whether the US session offers a trade today......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 21, 2021, 07:44:12 PM
A rather lacklustre day on the SP500, some further small upward movement that's all.

Managed one half-hearted trade, which I closed for only +30 pips out of sheer boredom really. Maybe tomorrow will be livelier  :-\

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 22, 2021, 08:19:59 AM
Having continued the slow grind higher yesterday, especially towards the close, we have made no changes overnight.

As far as I can establish there are no major events today except the ECB rate decision and statements, which is not likely to impact the US stock markets especially. There are a number of more minor US releases later which will give some ripples.

But I have no clear signals again. And I think there is an important lesson here. Whenever we develop our trading strategies they will always include entry and exit set-ups but unless we are trading an entirely mechanical system there is also a strong need to evaluate which signals are worth acting on and when it is wise to step aside. Not all potential trades are good trades and recognising what constitutes a Grade A set-up is crucial to achieving consistency and building confidence in one's trading.

Being careful and confident in one's choice of set-ups is as important as choosing a position size that one is comfortable with. If you are not confident in your entry and uncomfortable with your exposure then you are hardly likely to give the trade its space to work itself out. And hardly likely to enjoy it either!

So I am currently not anticipating anything today as I have no potential signal build-ups on the horizon. but, who knows what the afternoon might bring :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 22, 2021, 05:38:56 PM
So I am currently not anticipating anything today as I have no potential signal build-ups on the horizon. but, who knows what the afternoon might bring
Well we have not seen anything very dramatic today at all! A very tight range.

But we got a sell signal an hour ago which so far has dropped 85 pips but I closed it with +60 pips simply because there is no strong directional activity today and it could reverse at any time - just taking something off the table, basically.

But another plus day and the summer strategy seems to be doing ok.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 22, 2021, 07:35:57 PM
As suspected, the down move quickly fizzled out and we started a new drift upwards. Done for the day, just the one trade.

These kind of trades can be very irritating. It is clear from the context that the chances of a good follow-through are low but it is impossible to gauge where it will fade. As it happens, it ended just 15 pips short of the normal target of 100 pips and reversed to give a stop signal at what would have been -30 pips. So closing out prematurely at +60 pips was ok - this time! But this kind of trade destroys the concept of fixed targets and encourages random discretion instead. Which is not a good a thing at all......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 23, 2021, 08:25:05 AM
Had a buy signal one hour before the close that I chose to ignore, but would have produced another system win o/n.

We are at the end of the third successive week within the same basic range, but currently towards the top end of that range. Will we finish on new highs tonight? I think that is quite possible......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 23, 2021, 05:45:41 PM
Will we finish on new highs tonight? I think that is quite possible......
It has been a great day! A stead climb and a break through the target level of 4400 :)

A lovely end to the week and start to the weekend. :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 26, 2021, 07:48:10 AM
We reached am impressive high of 4416 last Friday before fading slightly into the close. The Far East this Monday morning took it back to test the 4400 level from above and reached 4395.

I have no intention to trade during the London session and am waiting for the US before taking any new day trades. Currently, my 1H chart is neutral and I want to see an hourly close back into positive territory before entering.

We are in the last trading week in July. Another month evaporated in the summer heatwaves.

My main concern throughout the month has been for our dog. A Shetland sheepdog has a lot of hair and gets really hot from even the slightest exertion. Dogs do not sweat like humans and can suffer from the heat very quickly. She cannot be left in the car even for a few minutes and always has to have fresh water nearby. Fortunately, it is still relatively cool in the forests and more comfortable now that the early summer gnats have all reached the end of the natural cycle!!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 26, 2021, 02:06:07 PM
Currently, my 1H chart is neutral and I want to see an hourly close back into positive territory before entering.

Still waiting.....

No real direction showing yet, so we might see a possible dip before a buy signal appears.

It is so important not to pre-empt signals on a systematic trading method. If one is, for example, looking to buy then it is tempting to buy on a price dip but there is always the risk that the dip continues. Sometimes, what looked like a good buy level at the time suddenly looks like it was left high and dry as the tide goes even further out - and we are left feeling grateful if the price just returns to where we got in so we can strike it at b/e......only to then see price rise further as we first anticipated, but without us!

It is important to get the direction right - but it is a lot more important to get the entry level right!  (and getting the exit level right is quite another story!!!)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 26, 2021, 03:32:54 PM
Well that was one of the quickest 100 pips I've ever made! Just after my last post the next hourly completed a buy signal and off it went, In at 4405 and out at 4415. As per print (I don't ever show my position size.)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 26, 2021, 06:51:13 PM
We are holding and ranging around these 4415-22 levels and I am done for today. Tomorrow is a day off elsewhere and the rest of the week with the last of the summer visitors so I don't know how much I can follow the signals this week. But that brings us to the end of the month and the end of my summer trading strategy. So I will be planning something a little different for August onwards.

During July there were 15 strong signals so far and only one loss for -30 pips. I am happy with that. June was fairly similar.

So, we continue on Wednesday, possibly!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on July 29, 2021, 10:11:12 AM
Seems I chose a good week to be off the market (more or less). There is no overall direction and a fairly tight range. The 15 min chart has given some good brief moves - if one is patient enough to sit and wait for them! I have only made a few sporadic trades over these last few days and will probably continue the same style until the weekend.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 04, 2021, 06:54:29 AM
Aug has started with the same market characteristics as July, oscillating around the 4400 level. Short term trading off the hourly chart and only in the US session has produced 3% gain already. So I am continuing with the same approach for now.

NFP is looming nearer and that may give us a kick-start one way or the other, but otherwise there is little from the fundamental approach to apply to hourly trading. This type of short-term trading is based on just judging the sentiment, jumping on the start of a move in the same direction and then just relying on sufficient momentum to push price to a suitably near target level. The reasons behind the moves are quite irrelevant really when the price often just returns to its earlier levels - even on the next 1-2 candles.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 05, 2021, 02:38:46 PM
We seem to be in a very quiet range as we approach tomorrow's NFP release, which could have an even bigger impact on the market than usual. The stand-off between the strength and stamina of the recovery boom and the increasing lockdown restrictions globally, due to the expanding spread of the COVID delta variant, is creating a lot of uncertainty.

Have we reached the stage where the scale of the vaccination programs and the growing herd immunity is turning us from trying to defeat COVID to learning to live with it? Although the gross number of cases is still mounting, the number of hospitalisations and deaths is reducing. How long can governments retain restrictions on their economic progress and endanger employment levels?

So I am not expecting any major moves ahead of the release and am only looking for my basic pips today.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 06, 2021, 07:56:52 AM
Only a small range again yesterday and overnight - as anticipated ahead of the NFP release today - But there is an interesting situation here.

The attached chart is a 4H chart for the SP500 and it shows how we have traded a range since about 23.7. We have always faltered just short of the 4430 level. However, here we are only hours before the big release and we are pressing right up against that ceiling.

I see this as a strong expectation of a positive release today, which means we should get a rather explosive move in either direction. If the data confirms this positive expectation then it will pull in more investors/traders as we break this top level. On the other hand, disappointing data may trigger a big sell-off as participants reverse their expectation.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 06, 2021, 07:14:53 PM
Well we did manage something of a daily range today but nothing very decisive and I can imagine that many traders got burned as we ricocheted up and down. But the overall result is a continued upward move.

I have spent most of today changing to a new PC and internet connection and wasn't really very confident, from what I was seeing in the price movements, to take any position in case I lost my connection. So I have done nothing today!  :-\

But Monday is another week starting and one certain thing about trading is that there is always another move on its way!  ;D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 09, 2021, 07:26:04 AM
But Monday is another week starting and one certain thing about trading is that there is always another move on its way! 
Hmmm, but the next move is not very clear yet!

Friday NFP has turned out to be wet firework, with just a few puffs and sparks but no shift to another realm. Although we climbed a little on the day we are now, Monday morning, back at the same levels as Friday morning.

Although the daily look is still flat/positive the shorter end (4H/1H) is looking more flat/negative. Interestingly, we have dropped back to the top of that flat zone shown in the (4H) chart that I posted a few posts back.

I wouldn't be surprised to see us move further down into that range, especially in early US trading, but if we hold and close above it today then that could set the scene for this week....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 09, 2021, 09:08:34 PM
Not much to add here. The top edge of that recent range held pretty well and we have recovered and tested recent highs - but all with very little enthusiasm or conviction. Maybe it is still a holiday mood.

Took a short on EURUSD instead today for a change. Been a long time since I last traded this pair. Could get used to it again.......it is where I started! All things come round again, sooner or later.  ;)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 10, 2021, 07:29:56 AM
A classic short term trader's frustrating day, yesterday.

Got the direction right on SP500, but missed target by a few pips and got stopped out on a sharp down spike by a few pips from the low! Also got the direction right on EURUSD but didn't gain enough to compensate for the loss on SP500.

Net result: two right trades and a net loss on the day!

Maybe mainly due to a over-optimistic target and a sloppy stop level that was closer than it should have been.

OK so there are own reasons for the particular trade, but the market is in a general state of lethargy and not extending its moves in the "normal" manner.

This market feels "heavy". It has little impetus to go higher right now, it seems. Are we due for a correction to clear the table? Maybe, but it is not in the charts yet..... or are we just on holiday?

Worth being a little cautious here and not assume that stock markets always come right eventually if one is only long.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 10, 2021, 03:51:45 PM
Worth the wait for a good signal. A positive signal and an immediate climb straight through the highs, where my target was. Recovered yesterday's losses and a nice bit more.

That's it for now for today's trading but interesting to see where we end up today.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 17, 2021, 07:05:27 PM
Nice play to the downside today on SP500. It respected the horizontal levels and over 200 pips in the green from three trades.

"Retail sales dropped 1.1% in July, more than the 0.3% decline expected, paced by a fall in spending on autos, building materials, and non-store retailers." 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 18, 2021, 09:21:03 AM
SP500 recovered quite nicely from its initial drop in response to the retail sales data. But it did not finish sufficiently high to conclude that the bull run continues from here. The 4H chart is left with a bias to the downside.

So the direction today is impossible to define at this point. The calendar contains nothing dramatic until later in the day with the FOMC minutes. So I am anticipating a choppy but somewhat directionless day.

Dip-buying has been a prevalent feature all this year and this daily chart gives a good indication how things are evolving. The long term uptrend line is closing in from below up to current price levels and there is a broad support zone under the market that formed in July/early August. Whilst we remain above these points the bull is still alive, even if limping a bit from time to time.

COVID is still a major factor and the related death figures in the US are still high in spite of the massive vaccination roll-out.

All major economic data released at present is difficult to interpret because of the possible distortions from COVID effects. Are the levels of retail sales, inflation, job creation, etc temporarily affected by COVID or do they really reflect the true state of the underlying economy?

It is interesting to reflect on the fact that the lows reached during sell-offs like yesterday were actually record highs only a few days earlier.

Personally, I am anticipating a period of consolidation over the next few months, but this market is full of surprises and calling tops in the SP500 is about as accurate as those predicting the end of the world - but I guess one day even they will be able to say, "I told you so!"......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 18, 2021, 02:42:21 PM
A quiet start to the US session. It started with a slow follow-though on the downside bias, but only as far as those support areas. But enough for a first trade, giving 36+ pips down to the top of the support zone.

Looks like a quiet day ahead of the FOMC minutes. Personally, I haven't seen anything that would suggest the Fed would be changing its stance from the current "more of the same" any time soon so I doubt there are any surprises in store there.....

I don't have a strong inclination to get involved any more today - some days are just quiet and unreadable. On the other hand, there are some strong barriers below here: the broad support band, the 4H 200 SMA and the long-standing daily uptrend line, so any dips down towards these areas may be worth a buy with a reasonable stop distance.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 18, 2021, 07:50:54 PM
The Fed minutes of their meeting on July 27-28 created some flurry in both directions but the market quickly ended up back where it was all day prior to the release.

The Fed is confident that the economy is still on track despite persistently high COVID infections and that employment levels will soon be at the point where pandemic support is no longer necessary. Although inflation is higher than the Fed target this is believed to be due to strong demand for products which are suffering from supply disruptions due to the pandemic and therefore temporary in nature.

The market still feels heavy with a distinct downside bias for now.

I was very pleased to see how the price respected the identified support areas as shown on this 15 min chart.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 18, 2021, 08:02:54 PM
With respect to disruptions in global supply chains and their impact on inflationary pressures, this is an interesting extract from a "Market Watch" article:

"Ningbo-Zhousan, which overlooks the East China Sea some 200 kilometers south of Shanghai, is China’s second-busiest port, handling the equivalent of some 29 million 20-foot containers every year.

At the time of writing, it has more than 50 ships waiting to dock. This is because the Ningbo-Meishan terminal, which handles about one-fifth of the port’s total volumes, has been closed for a week after a member of staff tested positive for COVID. With still no word of a reopening, many more ships have diverted to alternative ports.

Unfortunately, this is the tip of the iceberg in shipping. China has eight of the 10 busiest ports in world, and they are running at well below normal capacity because of COVID restrictions. From Shanghai to Hong Kong to Xiamen, ships are in long queues to unload – and the diversions from Ningbo will be making this worse."


--------

This has driven the cost of shipping rates for containers through the roof in recent weeks. The cost of moving a 40-foot container from China to Europe is currently running at around $14,000, about 10 times what it would normally be.

Kind of puts it into perspective!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 19, 2021, 07:25:28 AM
The market still feels heavy with a distinct downside bias for now.

Later in the US session yesterday, we saw my "downward bias" turn into reality with a sudden drop in prices. I would have missed this fast move entirely if I hadn’t had the laptop open while watching TV last night! But managed to catch another good trade going short after it broke the first support band.

Again, it was pleasing from a technical point of view to see that my bottom edge of the longer support zone held almost to the pip – and we have been drifting along it thoughout this morning's session in the Far East. We are also on the 4H 200SMA mentioned in an earlier post and the long term uptrend line is now very close, too. All this in the "red zone" on the hourly chart attached. The week’s close tomorrow night will be significant as a sign of any major change in market sentiment.

It seems the main concern that has spooked the markets was signs in the Fed minutes that they may begin removing their stimulus activities in the next few months.  However, it is a sad thought that the entire rise in the SP500 this year would be based on the existence of Fed stimulus activities and one would expect that the removal of these activities would only occur if and when the underlying true economy was again steady on its feet. Afterall, no parent removes the safety wheels off their kids’ bikes until they can balance by themselves!

But as Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia, said: "The Fed minutes did nothing to dispel the thought that tapering will begin soon…..we are closer to the end than the middle of tapering, and people don’t know how to react to it."

I guess that is what we call sentiment!

There is a real risk that we could break lower here – but we have seen that before…trade what you see and not what you think you are going to see…….
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 19, 2021, 07:47:57 AM
And here is the daily chart showing the uptrend and the dangerous point we are at right now. A break and close below the trend line  (especially if we close below it tomorrow at the week's close) could start to look rather ominous!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 20, 2021, 07:09:50 AM
Yesterday was a real Battle of the Bulls and the Bears. Where we end up tonight, the Friday/week's close, will be quite indicative of which camp is dominant.....I remain skeptical of the chances of an immediate strong continuation of the bull run and anticipate ranging at best and maybe even a healthy corrective move to the downside to establish where the true value lies....

Have a great weekend.....

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 27, 2021, 04:41:06 PM
There hasn't really been much to talk about here all week. The SP500 price has pretty much hugged the highs from last week all week long. But we appeared to get a break just a while ago on news from the Fed symposium.

I bought it, it went up.....and now frozen! So, being a Friday evening, I closed out for 45 pips and will call it a day. I don't want to keep anything open over the weekend in case of some comment fall outs.

So it has been a real pip-scraper of a week. A few pips on EU and a few more on EG, a handful of pips here and there on oil and now these from SP500.

I've been watching BTCUSD a bit lately and it also rose today, but I am not active on it yet and watched from the sidelines - for now!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on August 31, 2021, 07:11:32 PM
For a market that doesn't stand still for long this has been a rather tame start to the week. The world is a rather mixed place for the US right now, the aftermath of the Afghanistan departure, the spread of COVID delta, a month end, NFP on Friday and a US holiday after the weekend.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 01, 2021, 07:00:43 PM
Aye it's been a difficult month for risk, saw a quote earlier in the week "what's the word in Chinese for Lehmans?  - answer Evergrande.

This thought maybe sums up the nervousness in the market right now, currently they are using the 30day grace period on coupon payments (i.e. we have no money so give us 30 days) but they did make an agreed 10% payment yesterday on home investors.

Chinese gov making cash available this past week (not to Evergrande as yet) but then again they often do pre this coming week's holiday.

Everything that I use as indicators on the S&P are topsy turvy except for the 2000 - calling a little buy into the close for US stocks.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 01, 2021, 08:33:52 PM
Here's a wee thought going into the weekend - so i take a buy on S&P based perhaps on nothing more than the fact that there was no bad news, the index was down most of the week and guys were dip buying last day.

The 2000 was leading as it often does in such scenarios yet the 10yr refused to agree (except grudgingly in the last few minutes) - so take the profit and close or keep it open?.

Weekends have the potential of changing risk but perhaps there is sense in trying to foresee the chances of risk change  - is there anything bubbling so to speak - if not then set a stop to b/e and keep it open.

imo - let's see come Monday.

Edit: 2000 led, so 2nd thought is take the profit - Monday is a new day
 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 10, 2021, 09:08:52 AM
@Peterma Funny that, I took a long S&P500 position
just days before you, in that my experience of EUR/USD
has been awful  - compared to last year - therefore I
want to bet on something that moves mostly in one
direction, whether the gains be modest or small.

My hunch is that the Fed may not raise rates until
potentially a year from now, and possibly only once, and
for that reason the US stock market has nothing to
worry about (from that point of view). There were
taper tantrums in Bernanke's final months too, but
it all boiled down  to nothing much: this index continued
to climb.

Of course, energy prices are rising and wages are
meant to be pushed up as post-Covid workers will be
in demand, or so they say (it could be sector-specific
and not enough to be a global concern), which
could hike other prices up and raise inflation, which
in turn would (at long last, one may add, from an
Austrian economics standpoint) force the central
bankers' hands in having to raise rates by more
than those much-feared-yet-measly 0.25%
amounts...

But, until then, the US stock markets have
digested the news and are  continuing higher.

With no fear of arrogance, one could say that
this train is continuing unabated on its journey.

:)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 10, 2021, 11:07:42 AM
I took a long S&P500 position
just days before you, in that my experience of EUR/USD has been awful  - compared to last year - therefore I want to bet on something that moves mostly in one direction, whether the gains be modest or small.
Hi @PipMeHappy! That's quite a change for you! :) Glad to see it and I wish you every success with it! :D

But I just thought I'd stop by to add a comment that even the SP500 is not a one-way street. Although it has generally increased over the years, and this year is no exception so far, there are times of negativity and when they occur they are big and expensive to hold through if one intends to.

Right now I would say that the SP500 index has been in a consolidating, directionless phase with above-average daily ranges in both directions for the last few months. And it is not at all certain that it is going to go higher from these levels or whether we will still see room on the downside first.

I do agree that the long term outlook is most probably higher but there are numerous concerns at the moment that could cause some negative volatility along the way. We are into an earnings period that could produce some negative surprises, energy prices are rising (as you mentioned), the US/China situation is still an issue and is further aggravated by the situation in the East and Taiwan, etc. The Republican/democrat politics around the US debt ceiling increase may cause worries even though I doubt anyone seriously thinks the US will actually default on its debt repayments for the first time in its history. There are also possible repercussions from the recent 136-country agreement to implement a minimum 15% corporation tax that will affect large international companies that benefit from moving profits into low-lax regions.

I don't know what time frame you are looking at, but playing the short term 4H/1H from the long side has been very effective during these recent months compared with just sitting and holding.

Here's an indicator-free daily chart that shows the recent sideways movement.

Wishing you every success in trading my favourite instrument! :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 10, 2021, 09:28:42 PM
Hi PMH - it's a while back since I mentioned Yazz on BP - I think maybe about 7 years - anyways the lyrics have proved true since.

One thing I've learned over this past 40 odd years in business is that regardless of circumstance somehow business overcomes the obstacles and often they are many. Maybe it's a reflection of people's endurance when the chips are down.

The thing about the S&P is there is only one driver - risk - and not only any old risk, it's investors' risk - the guys who already have money and are seeking more.

Scott Peck spoke of a self made millionaire who in the early days stayed focussed because he was always aware of 'the wolf at the door'

Strange thing Peck wrote was many years later that same then now rich millionaire believed that the wolf was still at his door.

So it is with the investor - price will always drop faster than it rises :)

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 11, 2021, 08:26:30 AM
Hello both, and what a welcome surprise from @Kaitsu!

@Peterma  yes, price does indeed drop faster - people getting out of
a building on fire also move faster than under normal circumstances -
so it is indeed  a question  of, as @Kaitsu  mentioned, understanding the
instrument-specific risk, e.g. gloabl risk headwinds but also the specifics
of trading vs. investing, e.g. whether treating an index  such as this as a
CFD on (typically) shorter-term timeframes or as a buy-and-hold.

Having tried the latter approach  on EUR/TRY for many, many months and seen
my returns eaten by negative carry,  I tried shorter moves on EUR/USD
but, as you both know, there  can be months of choppy waters where
some traders thrive and others do not. I think I am better suited to
trend-trading, based on years of trials, and that is why I am (carefully) trying
out the S&P500 again, to see how it moves, how fast, whether to trail-stopmy way
up, and in what way, for example  - basically, I want to understand how
to tolerate risk on trading this  instrument, how expensive it is with my
broker, what dividends are paid, etc.

I see that the FAANG's earnings (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix
and Google (Alphabet)) are due not this or next week but the following
one, as per:

https://www.ii.co.uk/investing-with-ii/international-investing/us-earnings-season#calendar

It  will be interesting to see what happens to the S&P500 based on what
comes out of the releases. Also, in terms  of @Peterma 's Yaz reference: when studying
for my CMT Level 1  last year I came across the  concept of survivorship bias
in the stock market, which  someone doing backtesting would need to consider, meaning
that an index backtest for, say, twenty years in the past would have  to be
done by researching which companies failed and were weeded out of
the index, and when, because the chart will only reflect the winners, indeed
the survivors...which is not the whole  story.

Great discussion! I am on a train, difficult to do your posts justice!



Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 11, 2021, 10:00:00 AM
what a welcome surprise from @Kaitsu!
Always happy to talk about the SP500! :)

I think this is one "commodity" that really does merit following on a TA basis because it is such a broad indicator of the overall health of both the US and the entire global economy. Therefore, there are incredibly many factors that can and will impact on its development with varying degrees of relevance at varying times. But, in spite of that, it only has one core characteristic which, as @paterma said, is investment gain and the risks associated with it.

I think that in this instrument, more than any other, the core value of TA is at its most relevant: i.e. identifying what the majority of the investment/trading community is actually doing with its money. In this sense, it is really worth just following the current fundamental issues and knowing when relevant data is being released rather than actually using fundamentals to analyse and form an opinion of where the market is going. The financial world is full of professional experts who are constantly analysing every single molecule of the US stock market. We cannot hope to match that so surely it is best to base our trading decisions on just measuring what they are doing with their money rather than why they are doing it - adn then look at the "why's" alongside? :)

This week is an interesting one. We start with a US holiday today (Columbus Day) although I believe the stock market is open. then midweek we have inflation data and FOMC minutes and we finish the week with retail sales for Sept! All of that is going to be relevant.

This is all why I think it is important to watch the daily charts, whether the market is trending or consolidating or sometimes even declining. And then to use shorter term charts to decide when to "invest" in the market and when it is worth jumping out and waiting for another step up.

Trailing stops can be difficult to manage because the SP500 tends to be spikey and a quick up/down of 100-300 points is not unusual. This means a trailing stop has to be well under the price to stay clear of these spikes but that means a good amount of profit is foregone when the market does actually turn around.

I guess the first major question concerns whether one is looking for a synthetic, leveraged, long term investment vehicle or simply identifying and trading the upside moves within the assumed overall longer term market growth.

As an example, I currently see the daily as consolidatory, the 4-hour as mildly bullish, and the 1-hour as mildly bearish - which is what I would expect from an indecisive NFP ahead of a three-day weekend. So I am waiting for some direction from this week's data before doing anything other than some short term day-trades.

I really think this instrument will suit your interests and trading biases and I hope you do well with it - you have certainly worked hard for it1 :D   
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 12, 2021, 02:37:56 PM
@Kaitsu  thanks for that analysis and, to summarise, your insights (in my own words), as follows:

1- trailing stops (must be quite wide, or else...)
2- conflicting lower/higher time-frames means a consolidation period, possibly (monthly chart is a doji)
3- TA works best as pros with more money/time/tools pour over earnings'/Fed's details more than we could
4- trading short-term but in the direction of the trend (momentum strategies/buying the dips) would be advised

Food for thought

:)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 12, 2021, 04:40:34 PM
to summarise, your insights (in my own words), as follows:
Yes, I guess that just about sums it up - and in a lot fewer words! :D (but this is just my own take on it!).

As you are no doubt aware the SP500 moves a long way very quickly and, as a rule of thumb, I tend to think of it as a 100-point move on the SP500 is like a 20-pip move on, say, EU. I don't mean in monetary terms since the pip value is the same. Rather, if one uses, say, a 30 pip stoploss in EU then this would be something like 150 points on the SP500. Naturally, the ATR gives a better feel for that.

I certainly think it is worth trading in the trend direction and mainly from the long side, as you say, buying the dips. Going short can be quite dangerous as the bounce back can often be really wicked!! (which is another way of saying that buying dips can be rewarded very quickly - trouble is identifying the base of the dip! :) )

Are you trading live?


Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 13, 2021, 06:36:32 AM
@PipMeHappy  - regarding the "buy the dips" approach, I thought you might be interested in these comments from DailyFX:

"EQUITIES LOSE MOMENTUM AS INFLATION CONCERNS RISE
Concerns are growing about the continuation on “buying the dip” as analysts are predicting less support from the Federal Reserve during this economic recovery given this is not a normal business cycle recovery, nor are inflationary pressures as we face a greatly distorted labor market amid uneven demand for goods and services.

There are also health factors involved and until those are cleared don't expect monetary and fiscal policy to have all the answers. In the face of this, the technical calls for a 15%/20% drop in stocks as the Fed has got the transitory call wrong may be starting to come into play, with the S&P 500 failing to close above a descending trendline despite breaking above it during the session.

US yields continue to pick up and the move in energy prices only seems to be adding fuel to the fire."


My own charts are all neutral/negative and there is a clear vulnerability for more downside right now - BUT - we have seen this many times before, only to see the market spring back in fine form!!! Will this be the same....

But it DOES underline how important the CPI number will be today. Could be a watershed day. (We also have the FOMC minutes later in the day!). We also start the earnings season soon with bank 3rd qtr results - which could also cause some spikes when the market is looking for something/anything to make a move on! :)

"JPMorgan Chase will report third-quarter earnings ahead of Wednesday's market open, kicking off a huge week for bank financials. JPMorgan is among several major U.S. banks expected to report mixed Q3 earnings this week. On Thursday, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo report. And Goldman Sachs reports on Friday."

Just edited to add the attached daily chart. I thought it was interesting to note a lot of long tails in recent months in the price range just under where we are now. We are sandwiched between this possible support area and the minor downtrend line above the market....

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Max on October 13, 2021, 04:16:52 PM
All this talk of the best ways to trade the SP500 reminded me of a video I saw about a week ago. Basically, earlier this year a guy made some changes to his pet hamsters cage. He marked the hamster wheel with members of the SP500, put 2 tunnels in the cage (1 marked 'Buy', 1 marked 'Sell') and has been trading according to where the wheel stops and whether the hamster goes into the Buy or Sell tunnel first.
To date, I think he started around June, the hamster is beating the SP average.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 13, 2021, 05:21:42 PM
All this talk of the best ways to trade the SP500 reminded me of a video I saw about a week ago. Basically, earlier this year a guy made some changes to his pet hamsters cage. He marked the hamster wheel with members of the SP500, put 2 tunnels in the cage (1 marked 'Buy', 1 marked 'Sell') and has been trading according to where the wheel stops and whether the hamster goes into the Buy or Sell tunnel first.
To date, I think he started around June, the hamster is beating the SP average.

What they don't tell you is who trained the hamster. (hint: the hamster is a regular reader of Not The Noobs  ;))
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 13, 2021, 09:53:21 PM
All this talk of the best ways to trade the SP500 reminded me of a video I saw about a week ago. Basically, earlier this year a guy made some changes to his pet hamsters cage. He marked the hamster wheel with members of the SP500, put 2 tunnels in the cage (1 marked 'Buy', 1 marked 'Sell') and has been trading according to where the wheel stops and whether the hamster goes into the Buy or Sell tunnel first.
To date, I think he started around June, the hamster is beating the SP average.

Insane and true...

https://www.theregister.com/2021/09/28/hamster_crypto_trader/
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 14, 2021, 07:54:01 PM
Not as uncluttered a chart as @Kaitsu  's...

but  it shows the move today, a solid candle

(almost a marubozu) back above both the 100-day MA

and the upper band of a 2-standard-deviation Bollinger.

All time-frames (1H, 4H, and D) looked  bullish today,

throughout the European  and American sessions,

which means that the next few days will be crucial

for confirmation.

Your thoughts, @Kaitsu  ?

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 14, 2021, 08:46:44 PM
Your thoughts, @Kaitsu  ?
Hi PMH,

Well, I haven't consulted my dog yet, and I haven't even got a hamster to watch but, yes, those long tails under the daily candles on my last daily chart did seem to indicate a good support area and the market was just waiting for the CPI, FOMC minutes, etc to decide the next move.

I did sell it at an early stage yesterday for a 100-pip gain and then bought it towards the close last night on a good buy signal on my hourly chart. But I didn't hold it all day so I've missed the top end of this move.

Out of the things I watch, we first broke above the mid-point of last week's range yesterday, and the 14-period RSI on the hourly chart confirmed my EMA crossover, so it was a buy. The fact that the buy signal came after the CPI figures confirmed an easing in the overall market concerns about inflating energy prices, supply chain problems, etc. My target from this buy signal was the high of last week's range at around 4430 and the 4-hour 200SMA, which came in at the same level. This is where we are now, although I was already out earlier due to a heavy programme today and I preferred just to bank some profits.

I think it is too early to say we are back on a strong uptrend yet but I think we could still reach 4475- 4500 in this move. However, I would anticipate a few reverse hourly candles before that since RSI is already high on the hourly chart and we have a whole string of up candles there since yesterday, Maybe we will hang this 200SMA/last week's high combo overnight.

But we also have Retail Sales data tomorrow and that is another hot subject and will see us into the weekend. If that is a lot weaker than expected then we might see a quick return to the lower levels!

Well I guess that is enough waffle to throw the hamster into a tailspin so I'd better stop! So briefly: Daily is neutral, 4-hour is positive, 1-hour is positive but maybe overbought in the near term. :) 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 14, 2021, 10:56:03 PM
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/10/14/Dollar-Reverses-Despite-High-Inflation-and-FOMC-Taper-Talk-Where-to-Next.html

(I am  on holiday,sorry I cannot do your post justice, @Kaitsu !!)

Kicklighter's article (and video) from last night
says a lot about where markets are at...
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 15, 2021, 07:20:54 AM
(I am  on holiday,sorry I cannot do your post justice, @Kaitsu !!)

Kicklighter's article (and video) from last night
says a lot about where markets are at...

Have a great holiday @PipMeHappy ! Its a great time to spend with family instead of markets! :D

I thought that was a very balanced and realistic article from Kicklighter, thank you for sharing it :)

See you when you are back from your holidays! :D


PS, I had never heard of the candlestick description "Marubozu" before, so thanks for that, too! :D

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 15, 2021, 04:27:11 PM
Thanks @Kaitsu

I closed my last trade today,making
it three winners  so far. 

It feels good but now this is where
questions start.

I was trying to buy-and-hold but
financing overnight trades is expensive
so now I am thinking I should aim  for
shorter objectives.

Whatever I end up doing, it will
lose money at some point, but
the main thing is what to  do
that is the least time-intensive.
I need to figure out a few things,
basically, to find a good rhythm
where I do not have to micromanage
and can winners run.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 15, 2021, 06:42:18 PM
I closed my last trade today, making it three winners  so far.

Firstly, well-deserved congratulations! I doubt many start trading SP500 with a series of wins! :)

Whatever I end up doing, it will lose money at some point, but the main thing is what to  do that is the least time-intensive. I need to figure out a few things, basically, to find a good rhythm where I do not have to micromanage and can winners run.

Naturally, the only way to avoid o/n financing completely is to day trade. Personally, I haven't found the financing overly expensive, but then I very rarely hold a position for more than 2-3 days. It would be expensive to hold a position long term while the price doesn't actually move much! And there are the occasional dividend payments on long positions to help compensate (I don't really understand how that works but I am not complaining - but I should really study that some more.....)

One possibility might be to use the daily chart as a day-trade tool rather than just as an underlying trend checker. I have been looking at this more myself. It does appear feasible to look at the daily chart at EOD and decide on the likely move on the next day (perhaps with the aid of a short term chart). One can then set the trade using a market or limit order with a SL and TP for the next day. One can then either leave it as a "set and forget" trade or combine it with, say, a 4-hour or 8-hour chart strategy whereby one can "check in" on just a few occasions during the next day to monitor its development, and close it prematurely if that makes sense at the time.

Alternatively, you could also set the trade with just a stoploss (either fixed or trailing) and leave the target end open. That way, if your direction is right, you get the full benefit on  the occasional big moves but limited losses if your direction is wrong. An EOD trade can also include leaving the same trade open overnight for the following day - which would have worked rather well last night! In these cases the financing is not a problem since, by definition, the trade probably already has a good profit on it from the current day and the SL could even be at B/E or small profit. This also means trades are not (usually) left open over weekends or holidays so there is little open risk since the market is almost 24/5.

Naturally, this approach is difficult when there are important events on the following day so calendar-watching is critical. But, on the other hand, when there are important events or data, there is no reason why a trade shouldn't be entered after it occurs, depending on the outcome. In other words, like any other discretionary approach, the rules are not intended to blindly restrict or enforce trades, rather they are there to be respected, considered, and moulded to suit the circumstances.

 I have been trying this more and more myself and trying to integrate my current method into a synergetic relationship with the daily analysis. I decide what I think the next day will do based on EOD on the daily candle within my daily chart set-up. I then follow my hourly chart as normal but only enter when it is reflecting my daily expectation. If it doesn't give a signal, or reverses during the day then I am either without a trade or with a small gain or loss depending on what has preceded the reversal. But, as always, it is precisely the exit decision which is the bigger dilemma than the entry!!

I haven't been doing this long enough to say how it will work out long term, but it seems promising and can be designed to fit whatever time constraints one has during the working day.

Does this sound silly to you?  ;D

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 15, 2021, 06:51:04 PM
Hi guys - just a wee thought on the S&P for short term.

Oft times the US10yr and the US2000 are reasonable indicators of risk in the short term - happened again today early in US for long entry..

The thinking obviously is to use the 2000 as a stock investor risk indicator especially at the open.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 15, 2021, 07:07:46 PM
Lost my edit to above - cpl of hrs to close and the 10yr is thinking of heading further south - so s&p good chance to make new high - the 2000 has moved back to it's open as the session went on so if I was thinking about very short term before close of day and week then I'd go positive - will post at close.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 15, 2021, 07:53:52 PM
I also anticipated a strong close today after price holding well post- retail sales. I closed my first long today prior to the release but entered again a few hours ago. I just closed that one as well since we are approaching a price area that I consider could meet with resistance and - being a Friday - could see a lack of fresh buying ahead of the weekend. But this market seems to want to shrug off anything so maybe we will see a rally into the close tonight regardless! :)

I have been thinking about this almost fairy-tale optimism in stock markets, which seems undaunted even though there is a wealth of negative issues currently. One phenomenon that I have noticed during the COVID era is the increased marketing by banks and brokers of stock-based investment funds. The dramatic fall in interest rates has meant that the huge sums of latent savings and investment funds held by the public have been earning virtually nothing during this period. But these various investment funds, which have literally hundreds of different investment profiles have been showing increases of 20-35% or more.

In addition, some brokers are also offering cfd's for trading specific shares like Amazon, for example, and not just indices - e.g. this from one broker:

"Our Share CFD offering continues to expand! Highlighting September was the addition of key European shares. Now we are expanding our UK and US Shares offering with the addition of over 20 new stocks."

So we can envisage a huge transfer of funds going on continually from bank deposits to stock markets  - all of which is unidirectional, i.e. bullish. And on top of that leveraged funds via v'brokers into specific shares.

So we could conclude from this that there is a constant source of new funds looking for a new bed to lie in and is activated every time there is a dip regardless of any negative dynamics in the market. Stock markets are not so immune to cash flows as the forex market and this is all buying money not selling.

So are we creating an ever more inflated bubble here during the COVID era stoked by hungry funds chasing a better reward and a weary world looking for good news on the economic fronts?

Do the actual company facts live up to the expectations? Or are we poised for a disappointment and an eventual mad panic abandoning ship back to the safety of the bank deposit accounts?

Being a naturally cautious person by nature and by training, I only have about 30% of savings in such funds but I am seriously thinking of closing some of these down and banking the profits.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 15, 2021, 09:15:31 PM
I went for the second long and then closed before the close - quite small profit but reasonably safe  - see how the 2000 gave the signal to get the hell out:



Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 16, 2021, 09:49:38 AM
quite small profit but reasonably safe  - see how the 2000 gave the signal to get the hell out:
Always good when it is a profit! :) We can only take what the market offers....

I have not considered that relationship with the US2000 - will have to take a look at that!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 16, 2021, 08:58:59 PM
Learned re small caps a few years back - they offer the highest reward/risk ratio  - think it was John Murphy who commented that the risky investor is always looking for the next MSFT.

Anyways something spooked the 2000 late Friday so will be interesting come Monday.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 18, 2021, 05:14:23 PM
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-reclaims-technical-level-more-gains-fundstrat-2021-10
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 19, 2021, 11:50:06 AM
Nice to see alignment this morning - US2000 futures up, US10yr price down, UK10yr down, DE10yr down.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 20, 2021, 09:50:38 AM
The risk on carried on throughout the day - only one etf red
:
https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 25, 2021, 07:11:01 PM
Nice to see the thread continuing.

I agree, the Kicklighter video shows

a balanced view of the situation.

More earnings this week... Amazon on

Thursday and Facebook tonight,

if  I am not incorrect...

So far, the index is up...

See how it goes.

Hope you are enjoying a colourful

Finnish autumn, @Kaitsu

@PipMeHappy  did you have a nice break?

@Peterma  what are you trading atm?

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 25, 2021, 07:31:40 PM
Hello @Caesar, good to hear from you! :)

Actually, I was going to post here earlier today but only to say how uncharacteristically boring the SP500 has been these last few days. It is really quite strange to hit the all time highs reached a few months ago and then just freeze around there! Normally, one would expect either a break up through it and beyond or a bounce off it and a retracement. But we got neither, just a lethargic pause....

I am long again now and we have made some more ground on the upside today but the momentum (or total lack of!) is not very convincing at all  :-\ but I am going to stick with it and see where we go. Bit of a lean month so far!

The autumn splendour came and went and was very spectacular this year. Now we are into the dreary, dark, wet period up until the snows arrive! (we have already had the first falls but these always melt away). This week we change tyres for the studded winter ones and change the clocks at the weekend along with Halloween. Winter is around the corner............
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 25, 2021, 09:10:55 PM
fresh from the news
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 25, 2021, 10:45:22 PM
Good to hear from you, @Caesar
and yes, I had a break,travelled to the  Outer Hebrides,
it was nice, although it rained a lot (probably even more
than chez vous,right @Kaitsu ?).

Back to trading, I agree with @Peterma that
maybe the risk-on is...on, but I  also take
what @Kaitsu  mentioned seriously
because  this lack of progress from previous
highs,and the glacial pace of it, make me
(and not just me, it seems) a bit nervous.

However,I made a few good trades, and only
a small loss, thus far: this bodes well and
the generally trending instruments works
well for TA and entries using my chosen
indicators (Bollinger Bands and the CCI).

Fingers crossed!

PS: @Kaitsu  I would dearly love to see Finland one
day.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 26, 2021, 02:47:13 PM
I have closed out my long position today. Not because I am negative on the market but simply because my trading strategy is based on riding the fast momentum parts of a trend and I just am not seeing any momentum here. Generally speaking, a lack of drive reduces the probability of more follow-through and therefore raises the vulnerability to a pull-back. So I am flat again, waiting for the next impulse!

However, I would add that the daily chart is looking quite prone to a reversal any time soon if you look at the number of consecutive up-days on the attached daily chart......

I had a break,travelled to the  Outer Hebrides, it was nice, although it rained a lot (probably even more than chez vous,right @Kaitsu ?).

It has certainly rained a lot here this autumn - more than I remember from previous years. Probably due to an exceptionally hot and dry summer! Last winter was exceptionally snowy. So we seem to be doing everything "exceptionally" nowadays!! Climate change?

PS: @Kaitsu  I would dearly love to see Finland one
day.

I have also wanted to go to the Hebrides but never made while we lived in the UK. And since we got our puppy a few years back I have wanted to visit her ancestral grounds in the Shetland Isles. Hot mediterranean suns and beaches don't really appeal to me. I prefer a rugged outdoors where the weather is more a challenge than a luxury :D Besides, as the saying here goes: there is no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing.

I am sure you would enjoy a trip to Finland and not only because of Sibelius :)  We used to live in Järvenpää close to his home, Ainola. Helsinki is definitely worth a visit as well as the countryside and many visitors combine their visit here with a trip to either St Petersburg (which I am sure would fascinate you if you enjoy art, history and architecture) and/or a ferry across to Tallinn in Estonia for dinner in the old town there. It is a very atmospheric town area inspired, I believe, by the German Hanseatic culture.

Come in the summer when the nights don't exist and enjoy a midnight swim in the lakes after sauna.

Two problems: Corona and the weather! :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 27, 2021, 10:32:32 AM
Risk off tones this morning - bond prices up stocks down  - early yet.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 27, 2021, 04:32:27 PM
Hello!

Agree with both @Kaitsu  and @Peterma : gone off my long (hit stop-loss) on SP500 this morning... Bearish on 1h/4h and Daily is struggling.
I use BB and CCI and on the 4H it is pressuring the mid-line (MA) on the BB as well as hitting the middle (0) line on the CCI. There could be
a break of the MA in the BB, which in combo with a sub-zero CCI reading would mean, for me, a wait-and-see (no trading and waiting to buy
back into the index on the next leg up).

Small loss today but done really well so far so I am sticking with this. EUR/USD has been struggling in comparison and I am very happy to have
left it behind.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 27, 2021, 08:30:45 PM
Aye remained risk off throughout the day and has accelerated this past hour.

S&P looked as if it wanted higher but reality was that small caps were dropping fast even at the 3rd s&p attempt to go up.

The US10yr price was likewise reaching up all the time.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 27, 2021, 08:30:56 PM
Small loss today but done really well so far so I am sticking with this
Good!  ;D

I really believe you are going to do well with this instrument. I think it really suits your psychology, horizons and intellect. Just keep your risk management in focus and your emotions cool, when this one gets going it can zoom around all over the place, very far, and very fast, and in both directions!  8)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 27, 2021, 08:35:30 PM
That moment when one says
...
I  was right...

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 27, 2021, 08:52:56 PM
S&P looked as if it wanted higher but reality was that small caps were dropping fast even at the 3rd s&p attempt to go up.
Yes, it has been teasing me most of the day with this. I went short after the first failed rally (expecting today to be a down day) and watched it just oscillating up and down since then until that 3rd try on the upside. This time I was stopped out with the dubious credit of buying the high of the day. But it didn't hold there and I sold it again on the decline with a double size position and made a net +60 pips on the day.

A bit disappointing because it has moved as anticipated but not soon enough. Having said that, it is not much of a down day yet because we have only returned to the high point of last week and that can't really be called a "correction". But there is room for more and if we see a weak close in US today then it will be in anticipation of a further decline in the Far East. I never hold shorts in this market and if I can make a few pips on the down moves, like today, then I am happy! 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 27, 2021, 08:58:16 PM
[/i]
That moment when one says
...
I  was right...
Haha! Congrats! We can all do with lots of those! keep up the good work, I can hear your confidence booming :D

Hmmm "Bande di Bollinger" - has a certain Italian romanticism to it! Like it! :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 27, 2021, 09:13:05 PM
Quote
I really believe you are going to do well with this instrument. I think it really suits your psychology, horizons and intellect. Just keep your risk management in focus and your emotions cool, when this one gets going it can zoom around all over the place, very far, and very fast, and in both directions!  8)

Yes, I think it may be a lot more
intuitive or less choppy than
currencies. Anyway, let us hope
I can continue to do well with it after the initial
honeymoon period
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 27, 2021, 09:16:12 PM
[/i]
That moment when one says
...
I  was right...
Haha! Congrats! We can all do with lots of those! keep up the good work, I can hear your confidence booming :D

Hmmm "Bande di Bollinger" - has a certain Italian romanticism to it! Like it! :D

Occasionally I unleash a bit of my Italian
into the world...

though Bande di Bollinger is not exactly Puccini...

 ???
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 28, 2021, 07:42:50 AM
We didn't manage to move any lower last night and the Far East has remained around the high's of last week's Friday. So we have unwound the brief optimism from earlier this week but not shown any real appetite for a reversal or correction either.

Tomorrow is the end of the month for trading and, indeed, for summer time in this part of the world. We change the clocks back on Sunday. This is a very strongly emotional event for us because the summer and winter seasons are so very opposite - each so lovely in their own, very different, ways! We will be spending our "end-of-summer-season" celebrations at the cottage tomorrow, so I finish the month today.

My 4hr-1hr-15min charts are all starting the day in neutral, and the daily has just eased out some of its overstretched look. So I don't really have a view on this for the day yet. But the longer things remain neutral, the bigger the expansion when it comes! :D

@PipMeHappy  I am not sure about Puccini but I tried Google translate on my "moving average band" and came up with a suberbly intriguing "banda di medie mobili"! However, I am not sure whether "medie mobili" means "moving average" or the more modern concept of - mobile media! :D

Have a great trading day...

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on October 28, 2021, 09:29:52 AM
Ftse on a downward path right now (no sign of the v just yet) - dax has paused so closed that sell.

Some divergence between both this morning reflecting their respective 10yr - so interesting to see who is leader (chance that UK budget is affecting ftse only)


Bonds and Yen hinting at a stall in risk off - maybe everyone watching for the infamous dip buyers - time for the side-line for me and maybe a time for some more learning.

Have a good weekend guys. :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 28, 2021, 10:25:55 AM
time for the side-line for me and maybe a time for some more learning.

It is getting quite crowded here on the side-lines!  :D :D

I like reading your input here. You look at different things than me and yet we seem to often reflect the same overall conclusions. Just shows how versatile trading can be :)


Have a good weekend guys.

You too, @Peterma :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 28, 2021, 11:53:57 AM
Quote
I never hold shorts in this market and if I can make a few pips on the down moves, like today, then I am happy!

I am tempted but my head says 'no', thinking longs-only would be better for a novice at trading this instrument.

Looking bearish on the shorter time-frames, for sure. I am going to be in 'hands in pockets' mode for now. There could be an indicator like that: for example, it could be designed so that the graph hitting the highest level would indicate a directionless market, confirming that it was time to  keep the hands away from the trading desk :)

I suppose the ADX shows that, as a low reading indicates lack in momentum... Maybe the 'hands in pockets' could be an amalgamation of the ADX and the ATR, thus combining in one line an increase/decrease in range AND momentum. The ADS and ATR move differently, therefore it would be interesting to combine them, but how? That would have to be coded, somehow.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 28, 2021, 11:57:28 AM
Quote
Tomorrow is the end of the month for trading and, indeed, for summer time in this part of the world. We change the clocks back on Sunday. This is a very strongly emotional event for us because the summer and winter seasons are so very opposite - each so lovely in their own, very different, ways! We will be spending our "end-of-summer-season" celebrations at the cottage tomorrow, so I finish the month today.
Quote

How nice. The Celts had a better take on the year-end, as truly it should be the end of October rather than the end of December: then there would be a separate Christmas festive season. Somehow the NY modern celebration feels like an afterthought, perhaps because there is no connection with its agrarian roots.

I digress.

Winter in Finland must be glorious, with all the snow (past the wet months, as you say).
Yes, Helsinki... I would probably visit that first, being new to the country. :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 28, 2021, 04:51:18 PM
Hope you guys all got back in on this tonight? I set my initial target at 4600 but I just closed it here at 4592 because it is my last day of the month and I always like to start and finish on a gain! It also just takes my month's "ROI" over 7% and that is better than I had been expecting earlier this month :)

So I will leave the rest of the move up to the 4600 to the rest of the marketers . if it gets there.

See you in November! :)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on October 28, 2021, 04:55:56 PM
Nice work, Kaitsu!

Not guilty, leaving the SP500 to decide what it is doing (either breaking down to the MA of the BB on the Daily or if not then waiting for the next slide)

Well done getting in and out :)

Have a good break in the cottage!

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 29, 2021, 05:55:11 AM
Seems we didn't quite reach 4600  overnight? I couldn't resist another quickie last night when price dropped back a bit and then closed out this one as well just under the previous high this week at 4598. I am glad I didn't leave it overnight to hit 4600 as it seems to have dropped right back again in the Far East?

I hate looking at charts on mobiles and even more writing on them. But time to get up, pack the car and get going...

One last thought....i am beginning to feel very embarrassed about one thing here on NTN. There is a group of people including @Caesar who are actually paying for this site and cleansing the scam attacks behind the scenes just so's we few guys can chat about SP500! It wouldn't matter if there was a whole lot of other stuff going on here as well but  there isn't and it feels kind of uncomfortable......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 29, 2021, 04:32:43 PM
Quote
I am glad I didn't leave it overnight to hit 4600 as it seems to have dropped right back again in the Far East?

Yes, there is a general lack of momentum, and there would have to be something out of the FOMC meeting next week to
boost the mood. I have been off the charts lately but will keep an eye on this. Thanks for coming back to post here, you
helped the discussion with some great charts and it is also great to see @PipMeHappy  and @Peterma  joining in.


Quote
One last thought....i am beginning to feel very embarrassed about one thing here on NTN. There is a group of people including @Caesar who are actually paying for this site and cleansing the scam attacks behind the scenes just so's we few guys can chat about SP500! It wouldn't matter if there was a whole lot of other stuff going on here as well but  there isn't and it feels kind of uncomfortable......

Not at all: @Leebax  and others have been posting on cryptos and forex, so I won't be chasing you for money, @Kaitsu  - not yet :)

In all seriousness, you and I have talked about this and there is no decision on how to cover those costs at present - whether donations may
be the way, or some other revenue stream, there is nothing set up at present. If we had to hire staff then it would become a more pressing
matter and the m-word would come knocking much louder. For now, worry not! I appreciate you thinking of us, it tells me that you really care!

Enjoy your break and see you back in November, hopefully with some exciting market opportunities in store!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on October 29, 2021, 06:15:27 PM
so I won't be chasing you for money, @Kaitsu  - not yet
If it ever comes to the decision point of close or not, and the reason is finance, then I hope you and your partners will first look at the possibility of sponsors. Whether they be advertisers or members or others. :)

Here's someone enjoying their autumn outdoors. Just a stick to chew is total contentment! :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Caesar on October 29, 2021, 08:15:03 PM
Thanks Kaitsu!

Beautiful pic (and dog!!!!)

Now leave NTN behind and clear the mind! The wilderness awaits! ENJOY!!!

See you here for more
after Hallowe'en (hopefully without any market horrors)!

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 01, 2021, 07:57:06 PM
A slow start to the week with price hovering around the highs achieved towards the close last Friday. Not much new.

On the other hand, the 4-hour chart is showing some interesting tails under its candles following on from the jump up last Friday. On the whole, this seems to suggest some good support under the market at these levels and would appear to predict some further movement on the upside...
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 02, 2021, 02:36:16 PM
On the whole, this seems to suggest some good support under the market at these levels and would appear to predict some further movement on the upside...
And we are moving up!

100+ pips off the table so far today and the new month is off to a good start :)
Anyone else long here?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 02, 2021, 08:46:16 PM
Hello @Kaitsu  welcome back! Have you had a good trip?

Yes, I went long and I am up a few pips, nothing dramatic.

I actually decided to try withdrawing funds from my broker - just to know

that it works(!) - and I took some profits out to both incentivise myself to

make more money and to feel like it was worth my time :)

There is a good discussion topic: when to withdraw profits and when to keep it invested.

I digress.

The CCI is still >100 on the daily, 8h, and 4h, and on all of these time frames

candles have remained above the BB middle line (moving average)...

We are also above the previous highs, therefore it seems all is well.

FOMC rate decision tomorrow, I believe, but it could be the kind of

washout where no news is good news (buy the rumour, etc.)

As @Peterma  would quote, the only way is up (for now)!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 03, 2021, 07:36:07 AM
I actually decided to try withdrawing funds from my broker - just to know that it works(!) - and I took some profits out to both incentivise myself to make more money and to feel like it was worth my time

There is a good discussion topic: when to withdraw profits and when to keep it invested.
That was a good idea. It really does incentivise! I always think that a good point to reach is when one can withdraw one's initial funding and continue with just one's previous earnings funding the account. That point changes the dynamics of the account by removing the anxiety of risking one's own funds and is concrete evidence that something is actually "working"!  ;D

As @Peterma  would quote, the only way is up (for now)!
I also agree that the TA is looking positive across the various timeframes.

My only worry is from a general subjective look at the attached daily chart. Recently we have built a thin but steep upwards trend. But it looks (over)due for one of those little loops on the down side that we can see in the red circles occuring regularly since May. They don't change the overall trend direction but each of those loops are about 1000 pips! That is not only a painful set back to sit through but is also a lost opportunity to get in at a good level on a dip if one is already long.

So I am a little on my guard here! To be honest, I hate these slow moving markets that just creep up or down. They always give the feeling that they are about to collapse at any moment - but then just keep on creeping. Looking at the longer term charts, it always seems in hindsight that they are trending nicely, but in the reality of watching charts in the short term it is like the proverbial paint drying observation process!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 03, 2021, 03:27:11 PM
Hello @Kaitsu

good shout!

I just closed my long for a small profit, as everything looked totally squeezed to nothing...

and the FOMC meeting/presser tonight made holding long a bit of a strange gamble for me...

too many odds, therefore best closing all and starting fresh tomorrow.

Agreed, taking initial finding is a good move.  I am recouping the losses from EUR/USD trading

and think about withdrawals along the way - as well HMRC/tax considerations.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 03, 2021, 04:43:07 PM
therefore best closing all and starting fresh tomorrow.
Hi!
I don't blame you closing out. One thing that is 100% certain about SP500 is that there is always a new trade just around the corner. This is a difficult week when the market itself is giving no immediate clues because of the current high sentiment value of FOMC statements and, of course, straight into NFP release on Friday!

I don't have any short-term positions open for the same reasons but I am holding a small long position under my attempts to extend my horizons into longer term positioning. This is a new direction for me and I don't really expect much from it ( I have never done well on long term positions before, so I doubt this experiment will be any different! :D) The idea is not to hold long term investment but just to try and catch more of those 500-1000 pip moves by trading off the Daily/4H instead of just the 4H/1H combination. I still have a little gain on this but that will disappear if we drop much below 4600!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 03, 2021, 06:43:28 PM
Tempted... but ...

no...

as you said, @Kaitsu , there is always
opportunity another day!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 03, 2021, 07:15:28 PM
Tempted... but ...

no...

as you said, @Kaitsu , there is always
opportunity another day!
For short term trading these are difficult markets when they start what one could call "staircasing". Meaning that for a day or so before an event/release they stop dead and all signals go neutral and then after the event/release they leap forward in one jump. This leaves a long drop to the nearest sensible stop level and an uneasy feeling about how much room there is for a continuation! It virtually amounts to chasing the price which is always a risky business.

I just now decided to take my profits on that "long term" position because we will soon be eyeing Friday's data and may well drop back before that - and then its the weekend again - where do the weeks go to nowadays????

But I think you are right at this stage to avoid the more risky set-ups and build up your account equity. There are plenty of opportunities for that and this is one market that bites back hard if one is not vigilant all the time. I think it is important not to aim for too much from this market. It offers a lot and it is easy to reach out for more than is within normal risk parameters.  There are few markets where you can pick up a hundred or more pips in a matter of minutes if one's timing is right and one should be grateful for that and not complain if it sometimes then continues for another 400 pips! But the downside is just as ruthless with those that treat this market with a casual indifference.

I think you have just the right attitude towards this grand old lady! :)


Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 04, 2021, 08:20:52 AM
For short term trading these are difficult markets when they start what one could call "staircasing".

This 15m chart shows what I mean by "staircasing". We can see that the market "froze" already over 24 hours before the FOMC. If you were in the market then there was nothing to do but sit and watch and wait. Then the meeting came and the market reacted for just about 2 hours and gave a 400+ pip move up from the low of the day to the high of the day. And now it has somewhat frozen again as we turn to look at the NFP tomorrow.

Although that 400 pip upmove looks easy after the event, there is no telling at the time how far it is going to go, and the further it moves the harder it is to justify jumping on board! And this tends to make trading the SP500 a choice between intensive quick scalping or long-term investment with its carry costs and occasional big dips.

Fortunately, the SP500 is not normally like this and there is usually ample general movement to provide opportunities within these two extremes and thereby please both the intraday and swing traders. Hopefully, staircasing is not becoming the norm....

 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 04, 2021, 09:27:46 AM
@Kaitsu  staircasing indeed...

Kicklighter often
talks  about "moral hazard" ...

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/11/04/SP-500-Hits-New-Record-and-USDJPY-Stock-Still-After-Fed-Taper-Meets-Expectations.html

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 04, 2021, 12:37:21 PM
@Kaitsu  sorry if I did not reply properly to your recent messages, just in a bit of a rush
with teaching commitments etc. so ...

... but your charts and analyses are spot on, and so are your ideas about:

1) withdrawing profits;
2) trading vs. investing;
3) market conditions.

As a side-note, I did get back in but it was meagre profits, though I was grateful for those crumbs.

I did an initial scan of the CCI/price relationship going back a few months and it seems that it is usually
meaningfully bullish (>100) for variable periods before a significant turn (meaning: where price breaks below the BB mid-line), but a recurring period would seem to be approximately three calendar weeks, which
would put us around the end of the current bull period.

This makes me, like you, nervous about staying in a (long) position for anything more than a few hours.

PipMe
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 04, 2021, 07:00:37 PM
sorry if I did not reply properly to your recent messages, just in a bit of a rush
with teaching commitments etc. so ...

There's absolutely no need to feel any duty to reply! It is good to share thoughts with you here whenever you feel there is something to say  - and have the time to say it! :D

I did get back in but it was meagre profits, though I was grateful for those crumbs.

Exactly! Sometimes its just because it is all the market offers us and sometimes its because we are late in and/or early out! Either way, one should always be humbly grateful for what we are offered! :D I always remember what the Scruffy Trader says to people who are trading a small account: $5 profit might not seem much but there is not a bank in the land that will pay you that much interest even after a whole year. Kind of puts it all into some kind of perspective! The same goes even with a not-so-small account! :D
 
I did an initial scan of the CCI/price relationship going back a few months and it seems that it is usually
meaningfully bullish (>100) for variable periods before a significant turn (meaning: where price breaks below the BB mid-line), but a recurring period would seem to be approximately three calendar weeks, which would put us around the end of the current bull period.

That is interesting! I have never even looked at CCI. Do you apply it to the same MA as your BBs or the default value?

Today's market has been muted, as anticipated, but with a slight upward bias. And I didn't find anything to tempt me to trade today. It is showing rather more resilience than one might have expected ahead of NFP - will we see some profit-taking prior to the release? We'll see.....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 05, 2021, 12:39:22 PM
Nice little profit, closed at 4701 on a surge...

Happy

See what happens during/after NFPs  today...

PS: yes, @Kaitsu , 14-period for both BB and CCI

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 05, 2021, 02:15:09 PM
Nice little profit, closed at 4701 on a surge...
:D :D

Very good! Great to hear that PipMeHappy is indeed Happy! :D

I just closed out my longs, too. This seems like a runaway but it has to stop somewhere soon and this is a nice note to end the week on (100% gains so far for this month! :)).

Just out of interest, now that you have been trading SP500 for a while and winning at it, how would you feel about trading currencies again such as EU?

One other benefit from trading stock indices relates to what one does with one gains. Most Newbies talk about making lots of money in their trading accounts, even millions, but actually it is far more sensible and realistic to regularly siphon off some of the gains and invest them elsewhere. Nowadays, there are a whole range of funds that one can invest in and they are not all directly related to an index like SP500.

If one also primarily trades the index from the long side then the major upset is usually from missing out of a move rather than sustaining losses. But if one has been channelling profits into investment funds then generally these gain from an upmove in the index anyway so one is "long" the market even without a futures or cfd position. And the nice thing about this approach is that it alleviates the pressure to be in the market (or FOMO) and allows one to concentrate on selecting A1 set-ups and being satisfied with a smaller chunk of a move (although even "small" chunks can be quite big with the SP500!)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 08, 2021, 08:14:31 PM
Hello all!

S&P500  was  DEAD today...

Weird...

To Kaitsu:  very good point, and I
have not actually got to that point...
But worth considering once  I am
further along my profits.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 09, 2021, 12:03:55 PM
S&P500  was  DEAD today...

Yep! I managed to lose a bit yesterday after closing a long that wasn't going anywhere. I am not sure of the upside potential in the near term  - and see no reason to sell it either   ::)

once  I am further along my profits.

I like the positivity here - no "if's" about it, just "when"!  :)

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 09, 2021, 02:18:48 PM
Are you staying out of it?

Today looks to be another dead day.

I am being optimistic. Everything I practised in inefficient markets (forex) works really well with a trending instrument such as the US index... I made good money in the volatile months of 2020 when the pandemic broke out in Italy/Europe, but in 2021 I was unable to replicate those profits on the same instrument (EUR/USD), no matter what I did.

With an index it is much easier to apply risk parameters, momentum, trend-based indicators, etc. as there is a consistency about movement, mean-reversion, etc. You can get that in forex but you have to almost have a crystal ball because trending does not happen consistently and when it does it can be over in a matter of weeks before you even realised that a trend has begun - not just a breakout, say.

I have prided myself to be a 'forex trader' for years but I have to admit that all the warnings coming my way were partly well-founded, meaning you cannot trade forex consistently like other instruments and the reason why so few people you hear about in trading have anything to do with forex may well give one cause to think hard about choosing that road.

You ( @Kaitsu ) have done some good, consistent trading with Eur/Usd, and @Leebax  has done well with  currencies, but I must admit I find it too much hard work for little return. I am not talking down fx trading and I am glad I stuck with it for so long - and may dip into it again in the future, who knows - because I learnt a lot of things (what to do and definitely a lot of mistakes). Now I want a bit of an easier ride of it and it is early days with the current trading instrument of choice but it is looking better in terms of suiting my skillset/mindset, as you said before @Kaitsu. I am more optimistic about trading than I have been for some time, which of course means that I will see losses and inactivity/flat periods, but based on what I see in terms of this index's potential then it is never going to equal the extended periods of choppy, directionless trading conditions you can experience in forex, which leads to frustration, revenge trading, errors, self-doubt, etc.

Per ardua, ad astra!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 09, 2021, 05:01:16 PM
@PipMeHappy, I agree with everything you say. It has been several years now since I started to feel that forex pairs were starting to behave in a far more unpredictable manner, especially in the shorter timeframe highways and byways that I tend to frequent. Commodities seemed a lot more rational analytically, and still do. I include indices as commodities as well.

Every now and again I take a look at some forex pairs and I actually did that earlier today funnily enough! But it didn't take more than a mere glance at the 4-hour EU chart to reconfirm that I couldn't make any sensible trades there consistently.

I am just getting a little worried that maybe even the SP500 is changing its characteristics. Over the past few weeks I found myself losing interest in it. It that happens I really don't know what I would turn to next - I have actually started to look at some real commodities just for fun but found nothing very inspiring so far!





Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 10, 2021, 07:39:52 AM
@PipMeHappy, I agree with everything you say. It has been several years now since I started to feel that forex pairs were starting to behave in a far more unpredictable manner, especially in the shorter timeframe highways and byways that I tend to frequent. Commodities seemed a lot more rational analytically, and still do. I include indices as commodities as well.

Every now and again I take a look at some forex pairs and I actually did that earlier today funnily enough! But it didn't take more than a mere glance at the 4-hour EU chart to reconfirm that I couldn't make any sensible trades there consistently.

I am just getting a little worried that maybe even the SP500 is changing its characteristics. Over the past few weeks I found myself losing interest in it. It that happens I really don't know what I would turn to next - I have actually started to look at some real commodities just for fun but found nothing very inspiring so far!

Good points, Kaitsu.

Some commodities have high costs for holding
overnight and leverage/spreads may be prohibitive;
the good thing about EUR/USD was its low spread
and very liquid nature, thus making it a friendlier
risk to take on at every trade.

Oil has certainly made a comeback, since the 2015 tumble...
But that was six years ago... Like with BitCoin, I find that
sitting  around for months waiting to catch that big  surge can
lead to frustration and errors. Maybe there are other commodities,
like copper, which have more technical features that can make
them friendlier to retail traders, or even wheat and seasonal
instruments of this type.

Were you looking at physical commodities such as gold coins and bars?

I went long SP500 this morning,for the 4h chart showed
a  similar set-up as  in  past price history, that is, a
test of the lower Bollinger Band with a dip below the
-100 level in the CCI:  usually this signals a return above
the Bollinger Band's mid-line...

Are you tempted to go long?

The docket this week  is fairly quiet, therefore
price should take the path of least resistance...
"should" ,,,
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 10, 2021, 08:40:26 AM
Were you looking at physical commodities such as gold coins and bars?

I don't really know why, but I have never liked gold. I have tried it a few times but I've never felt at home with it. Maybe gold just represents values that don't reflect my own values at all. Either way, I don't look at it from a trading pov.

Maybe there are other commodities,
like copper, which have more technical features that can make them friendlier to retail traders, or even wheat and seasonal instruments of this type.

I have been looking at all these but so far I haven't found anything that instills any inspiration to trade it. Maybe it is just old age creeping up on me! :D
But I have been looking at one area which so far looks interesting. My broker now offers a range of cfd's for various stock sectors, such as banks, biotechnology, airlines, etc. These are perhaps a way to move into my desire to trade on a longer term time frames - I'm working on it! :)

Are you tempted to go long?

Actually, no I am not. It would seem the likely way to go but I am troubled by the attached daily chart which is suggesting a break below that steep upline. As I mentioned earlier, I feel we a due some kind of a pullback / consolidation and we are currently testing the underside of that line. If we don't manage to close above it then it could signal a down move for a while. In addition, although both my 4-h adn 1-h charts are showing an upwards tendency they are still in negative territory and thus confirm a vulnerability to the downside. However, a "vulnerability" is NOT the same thing as an entry signal, it is just a warning that things are not yet clear enough to act upon.

So I am flat, but tempted to take a speculative short position for the day, I don't know yet........
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 10, 2021, 02:07:26 PM
So I am flat, but tempted to take a speculative short position for the day, I don't know yet........
Seems like another quiet day today.

We have been pressing the downside but not achieved very much. I have taken two short trades today and the second one was set with a target of 100 pips but it didn't quite reach it before starting to back up so I scrambled it with just a 16 pip gain. But a total of 90 pips on the day is ok considering the lethargy in this market at present!

So I still don't have a strong view in either direction right now but certainly have no signal to buy yet....
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 10, 2021, 05:50:31 PM
Well done,Kaitsu!!!

Stopped out on  my long but only lost a handful of
pips, then after a while I went short and it is looking
difficult to make much money on the short  side
but based on my observations there are either
short periods (2-4 days to a week) under the
mid-line of the daily chart BB or,as inSeptember,
longer periods (several weeks)... but generally
a few days would seem safe for holding short.

Let's see how it pans out

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 10, 2021, 06:55:40 PM
short is gathering momentum

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 10, 2021, 07:22:53 PM
short is gathering momentum
Yes it is! Well done on turning yourself around to the short side. That is a lot harder than it sounds with an index that is generally considered to be a one-way street on the upside!!

I took another 120 pips from another short position this evening after it tried and failed to move higher. This time it did reach its TP! :)

It seems that the Far East often takes this lower so tonight may be no exception - but I will remain flat now and reconsider tomorrow. I think there may well be more room on the downside in the near term without any damage to the general overall upward direction of the US and global economies. So the extent of any downside is hard to predict and therefore worth trading in chunks.

On the other side of the coin, COVID is still a major problem especially in Europe and getting worse in Germany, inflation is really biting into real consumer spending funds and supply disruptions are also restricting production in many industries. So there are plenty of arguments to explain away a deeper pullback!

Well done with your own short trade - great stuff! :D

 
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 10, 2021, 07:44:20 PM
Well done, Kaitsu!

I made a good profit, just closed for about 30+ pips,

I wonder if my broker displays pips differently
from yours for CFD indices, because your trade
was around the same period as mine, so
there should not be such a difference...ah well,
in money terms my trade was worth about 60  quid..
That doesn't help much, except that it tells you
my position size made each pip worth about 2 Pounds...

Sorry, I digress...

Yes, big USD jump... who knows... whatever the
Asian session has in store, I, like you, decided
to wait until tomorrow... If more selling were on the cards,
I am sure we can take the hint... :)

Well done!!!

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 11, 2021, 05:42:03 AM
I wonder if my broker displays pips differently
from yours for CFD indices, because your trade
was around the same period as mine,

Quite possibly so, and it does seem likely.

The value of my broker's pip is the same as, for example, EURUSD and are measured from the first number to the right of the decimal point.

So a 100 pip gain on SP500 with my broker is the same value as a 100 pip gain on EU.

 The attached is from my broker's page:

[/quote]

Thank you, this makes sense :)

So it seems that what is happening is either
we genuinely caught  differently sized moves
and there is no difference in how our brokers
quote this index, or I have missed something.

I think the article I posted confirms what
you posted, Kaitsu, from your broker.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Leebax on November 11, 2021, 08:19:04 AM
Quote
Sorry i dont join in the conversation as much guys, especially s&p as i just dont trade it. Busy moving house at the moment also so sticking to my normal pairs.

I will say though if youre having trouble seeing not normal trends and as such to start moving to the higher time frames. Thats where the big boys play and thats also where price action respects analysis alot more.

Just my two pence. I even struggle myself some times in holding onto winners. I sometimes cut it too early even though it carried as expected. Just human nature, dont let it get to you and move on :)

Hello @Leebax  thanks for that.

Good luck moving house!!

I get you, holding on to winners!!!

For me, the big time-frames are only for a quick look, but on a trading approach the 4h and daily are where
it is at!

:)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 11, 2021, 12:04:16 PM
Sorry i dont join in the conversation as much guys

No problem, you are welcome any time on this thread as well. But, from the forum's point of view, it is great that at least someone (i.e. you) is posting about forex pairs and not just the SP500! :D
   
I will say though if youre having trouble seeing not normal trends and as such to start moving to the higher time frames.
I very much agree that the higher time frames such as the daily chart are very important even if one is day trading or trading shorter term moves. This is especially important in stock market indices where the default view is that the markets generally trend higher. So whilst it is easy to hold on to long positions, one has to be very careful with short positions as these types of markets can, and do, turn very quickly and powerfully.....

I sometimes cut it too early even though it carried as expected. Just human nature, dont let it get to you and move on
This is also a good point. Whilst it is relatively easy to design a system that indicates entries to a market, it is not at all so easy to define how far a move will continue or when it has stalled and reversed. In addition, the end of a move tends to be more more fast and furious than the gradual build-up as the trend evolves.

But there is also a danger in premature exits. Although we tend to view each trade as an isolated entity in terms of its entry, exit and result, it is not an isolated item at all. All trading is about losses and gains and the only way that it can be successful over time is if the gains are greater than the losses overall. So optimising this process is essential to consistent success, and excessive cutting off profits early will soon eat away the edge built into the method and can destroy an account's profitability even though the trade decisions have been correct.

My own approach with the SP500 is mainly to only take long trade entries based on the 4H and 1H charts whilst the daily is positive. I only take short positions when there is a clear chance of a bigger move (correction/consolidation) from an overbought situation on the daily chart such as we have been seeing this week. And even then, the short positions are conservative and short-term! In other words, I treat it as a kind of investment portfolio where I can quickly and cheaply exit and re-enter based on how the 4H/1H charts are looking compared with the underlying daily trend.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 11, 2021, 02:16:58 PM
@PipMeHappy  How have you managed to edit directly into mine and Leebax's posts?????

Or is this a system glitch?  ???

What is the basis of your broker's pip/point calculation?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 11, 2021, 06:46:47 PM
Kaitsu,

maybe because Caesar gave us admin privileges
I must have modified instead of just quoting your post
without realising. Sorry. I am guessing  here.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 11, 2021, 06:54:51 PM
Looking at the Oanda 5m  chart for the S&P
I watched price on  4655.0 go up to 4655.2
then .4, .6, and .8, which means that it skips
the odd pips, meaning that a point is divided
into 5 rather than ten... Either I witnessed a
jumpy bit  of price action or it could be that
one point has half the pips you would expect.

I seem to remember that in stock quotes
a point move means a four-tick move:could
this be a way to replicate that system using
pip-quotes?

I should try to find out on the website.

Sorry.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 11, 2021, 07:19:16 PM
I had to go  and  re-educate myself on pips vs. points,
and found this a helpful article:

https://www.prestigetradingsoftware.com/what-is-the-difference-between-a-point-a-pip-and-a-tick/
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 11, 2021, 07:43:27 PM
So it seems that what is happening is either
we genuinely caught  differently sized moves
and there is no difference in how our brokers
quote this index, or I have missed something.

I think the article I posted confirms what
you posted, Kaitsu, from your broker.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 11, 2021, 08:12:15 PM
I think the article I posted confirms what
you posted, Kaitsu, from your broker.
Good article!

I guess all that really matters is that the pips/points/ticks are preceded by a "+" :D :D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 11, 2021, 09:44:14 PM
I think the article I posted confirms what
you posted, Kaitsu, from your broker.
Good article!

I guess all that really matters is that the pips/points/ticks are preceded by a "+" :D :D

SPOT ON!!!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 12, 2021, 05:12:03 PM
What a frustratingly slow market we have been witnessing lately!!

I went short again yesterday and watched it through the rest of yesterday  - over night - this morning - nothing happened!!!

So I closed it with a few pips loss and a few hours later went long  - partly on a more positive chart outlook but mainly on the primeval basis that "what won't go down must go up". Well it just paid off with a 150+ pip gain. And I have to say all credit to my broker for a positive slippage in my favour! :)

Looks like we might see a positive close today but I am not sure yet about leaving anything open over the weekend......
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 12, 2021, 07:46:41 PM
well done,Kaitsu!!!

I stayed neutral until about half past five
when I saw that a rush high had breached
the mid-line on the 4h Bollinger Band,
thus confirming the daily 'buy the dip'
outlook.

I am now long.

Hopefully next week there will be clearer
momentum.

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 12, 2021, 08:31:23 PM
Stayed out of S&P and Dax all week- nothing lining up much.
US 2000 suggesting risk off and yet USB10yr saying the opposite.

Yen down and then up for the week - today Nsq and S&p almost identical.

Caused by XLC and XLK sector buying - like I say a bit topsy turvy - with stocks it's good to see risk align.

Gbp this week was a different story - and likely so next week.


Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 12, 2021, 09:38:04 PM
Hello @Peterma

you really look at this
in a broad way...

Like Dow did,when he
would study relative strength
by comparing how the DJIA and
DJTA (transportation average)
would move - aligning or not.

I closed my long now, up a few pips
and ending a quiet but decent trading week:
from a TA angle, the 4H chart outperformed
by  giving a clear signal to buy, as I explained
in my post, and subsequently breaking
above the upper BB.

I am really happy that I made the switch
from forex: TA works so much better
here, I can honestly  say my level
of frustration has disappeared overnight.

Speaking of forex, do you think the BoE
will raise rates soon (and when)?

The Pound has been absolutely
slaughtered.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 12, 2021, 10:10:06 PM
It's a long story on Gbp - right now the UK/EU talks re NI Prot are centre stage - but as always there is more.

Today the focus has been the 'softer tone' from the UK - thus Gbp buying - Reuters reported this morning and Gbp sellers left the stage.

Happened that on Wed past Lord Frost adopted the reported softer tone approach in his speech to HoL - then a few hours later the EU Commissioner for Finance  stated that she is proposing to the Commission that they extend the June 2022 deadline for UK passporting - no date offered.

By chance said commissioner is .... Irish.

Here in Ireland we have a certain way of doing things - one of which is to seldom seek the limelight - maybe next week could be GBP positive - let's see.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 16, 2021, 04:37:01 PM
Hello!

Good trade, today, caught most of this move (see attached)
on the basis of 1h/4h technical signal, plus CCI.

Happy :)

@Kaitsu  ?
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 16, 2021, 05:17:35 PM
Good trade, today, caught most of this move (see attached)
on the basis of 1h/4h technical signal, plus CCI.
That's great! Well done! Seems it is all going very well  :)

 I was long yesterday and closed out at 4700, which was actually only a few pips from the high. I can't remember a time when the SP500 has passed through a whole number like 4700 and not returned below it before continuing. This time was no exception and we have indeed seen some lower prices today.

I waited for the Retail Sales first and then went long but it just didn't seem to want to move so I decided to scratch it for a few pips and wait. I then re-entered an hour later and rode it up for a 100+ pips. I have now closed it. Attached 1-H chart without indicators.

So I am also happy with today.  :)

But this market is strangely quiet and weak and I find it hard to trust for long!!!!

 

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 17, 2021, 08:35:35 AM
Quote from DailyFX:

"US stocks are treading water, not unexpected given seasonal trends for mid-November. But the end of the year is expected to be strong; buy the dip mentality remains."

So I am not the only one finding SP500 sluggish...
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 17, 2021, 03:39:54 PM
Good work, @Kaitsu

and no, you are right, it is broadly acknowledged that the S&P is struggling (and it is not the only one,
as Peterma's analysis pointed out).

However, 'the trend is your friend' and OVERALL this index has outperformed other indices, making
it difficult for a lot of wealth not to tag on to its tails for as long as possible/reasonable.

I am long at 4713 and watched it go near my stop before bouncing back. I thought about getting out early
but I missed that and now there could be a chance to make some pips. Quiet day at the shop, as they say.

:)
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 17, 2021, 04:24:03 PM
Hi!

I don't know, I haven't felt comfortable with this market today. It just doesn't seem to have any legs for the upside. I can't help a nagging desire to sell it but I don't have a set up for that either today. So far I have resisted the urge to sell but I am seriously tempted, looking for a drop to around 4675....

We'll see!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 17, 2021, 08:31:21 PM
So far I have resisted the urge to sell but I am seriously tempted, looking for a drop to around 4675....

A terribly frustrating day - watching price rise and then fall and then rise and never enough to signal a trade!!

But fortunately USoil came to the "rescue" today with a nice sell trade that saw 100+pips. Unusual in recent times to make money selling oil but that was the flavour today!

Having watched the SP500 doing nothing for so long I have decided to shelf it for the rest of this month and look at other things instead, probably a return to WTI.


Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 18, 2021, 06:22:41 PM
So far I have resisted the urge to sell but I am seriously tempted, looking for a drop to around 4675....

A terribly frustrating day - watching price rise and then fall and then rise and never enough to signal a trade!!

But fortunately USoil came to the "rescue" today with a nice sell trade that saw 100+pips. Unusual in recent times to make money selling oil but that was the flavour today!

Having watched the SP500 doing nothing for so long I have decided to shelf it for the rest of this month and look at other things instead, probably a return to WTI.

How was your trading today @Kaitsu and did you
do more Oil trades?

I stubbornly stayed long and this tail on the 4h
justified my guess that the uptrend would hold
(by a whisker, for now)...

Not sure where to next...

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 18, 2021, 07:24:24 PM
How was your trading today @Kaitsu and did you
do more Oil trades?
Hi @PipMeHappy
Yes, I was long oil today and thought to hold it but we have risen and paused at the bottom of last week's range so I closed it. Although the longer term outlook is for higher energy prices, there is a strong chance of near term weakness as countries debate releasing oil from their national reserves to restrain prices. As I have said many times, following oil leads to so many interesting issues! :)

I have also been short on the dollar index today, although it hasn't moved much, but a few green pips there, too.

Although I do generally follow this index I have never really considered trading it. But it occured to me that it is actually like a commodity in itself - and it does seem to trade technically quite well. But that is curiously rather hard to understand since its value is based purely on a basket of other currencies so why should it form its own, independent, technical structures! Strange, but true! So I will be trading this more regularly along with WTI.
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 19, 2021, 07:50:52 PM
@Kaitsu  quite interesting, the DXY... one of those indices that I tried before and found
very frustrating for its lack of progress... I think I tried to buy when it kept going down
and calling a bottom, or something like that, because I was looking at all the US fundamentals
and they were telling me otherwise... But even technically alone, it did not seem an easy
call, even just for selling, so I am happy to hear you doing well with it! Certainly its upward
momentum has currently sustained a lot of buyers, therefore it is a bit easier to plan
intra-day trades (not to take anything away from your skilfulness, but certainly we all need
a little help sometimes)!

On the S&P500, my long on demo was closed with a good profit (one manually and the previous one through a trading stop) but the live is around break-even, therefore I will
leave it open until Monday (or close it before 10pm today if it makes upward progress,
even for a handful of pips' profit).

John Kicklighter will have a good few things to say about the 'terminal wedge' that he
sees the index eventually having to break out of, either way. He is right, as the range
has been so small that it speaks to an imminent technical break...

Have a good weekend, all!
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 20, 2021, 09:30:34 AM
the DXY... one of those indices that I tried before and found
very frustrating for its lack of progress... I think I tried to buy when it kept going down
and calling a bottom, or something like that, because I was looking at all the US fundamentals
and they were telling me otherwise... But even technically alone, it did not seem an easy
call, even just for selling, so I am happy to hear you doing well with it

Well I wouldn't say I am doing well with the USD index as I have only made a couple of trades so far :) I usually just watch it just to follow what the USD is doing by itself rather than as half of a currency pair.

But I have had a change of mind about trading it! Although it does seem to follow TA quite well, it dawned on me while watching these couple of trades that I have nothing to check the quoted values against!! Which means I would be completely open to whatever my broker wants to quote and I am not happy about that kind of exposure!! Whilst I have never had any cause to doubt my broker, I wouldn't like to be left wondering about quotes...... It is easy to watch normal commodities and currencies on a variety of alternative price feeds and to compare in the event of any doubts. So I don't think I will continue actually trying to trade this index!

On the S&P500, my long on demo was closed with a good profit (one manually and the previous one through a trading stop) but the live is around break-even, therefore I will leave it open until Monday (or close it before 10pm today if it makes upward progress, even for a handful of pips' profit).

Looks like it was a typical up/down/going nowhere type of Friday on the short timeframes.

My 4H is still riding above the daily and my daily is riding above the weekly but the short end  is still looking directionless. In fact, price spent nearly the entire week in the upper half of the previous week's range. 

Worth remembering that next Thursday is US Thanksgiving so I guess Wed to Fri will be pretty dead.....

Good weekend to you, too. I am spending mine trying out a Scottish recipe which caught my attention: A Scottish Rumbledethumps.....  ;D
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: PipMeHappy on November 22, 2021, 03:08:44 PM
Well everyone,

the SP500 on the NY open today
just surged and my struggling long
from Friday just hit its take profit line...
Over 80 Pounds bagged.

Kaitsu, do you think this upward breakout
has a market-positive flavour to it?

I suppose the next few hours will tell  us...

Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Kaitsu on November 23, 2021, 06:43:56 AM
the SP500 on the NY open today
just surged and my struggling long
from Friday just hit its take profit line...
Over 80 Pounds bagged.
Well done! (this is becoming a very healthy habit!!! :D )

As you may have suspected from some of my recent comments, I am looking for some new direction in my trading and, simultaneously, have put SP500 on the shelf for the rest of this month.

But I have been restlessly struggling to decide what to move on to. WTI is like going backwards to where I've already been and has lost its lure with the increased need for environmental considerations. Gold has never appealed to me at all as it is associated with human characteristics that I cannot identify with. BTC does not appeal to me for similar reasons and its appeal to the wrong kind of money and the SP500 is beginning to feel hollow as it has no underlying product of its own.

But two other factors are entering the scene which has added complications. Firstly, it is now nearly forty years since I first entered a trading room and got bitten by the trading bug. I am now finding that the glamour of trading per se no longer draws me as it used to unless I have a product that seriously interests me. And secondly, since the start of the Trump presidency, I have felt a growing distaste for almost anything USA! And this has now come to an abrupt head with the recent events there concerning gun rights and a maroon SUV!

I cannot believe that the US legal system says it is OK and right that an underage kid can illegally possess a military class semi-automatic rifle, take it another town where he knows there will be protests and unrest, and shoot three people, killing two of them. America says this is just fine and justified.... And then someone else possibly fleeing from a knife fight, drives his SUV at high speed into a crowd of people including many children and randomly kills five of them.

So I am done with trading anything that includes anything directly connected with the US.

So, all in all, this all leads to only one product that meets all my criteria. One that I have been interested in and keen to trade ever since Brexit appeared on the scene. As a British ex-pat living in Euroland, having ongoing interests in both regions, the EURGBP has been part of my life for years! :) But pre-Brexit it was too dull to trade, and during the Brexit process was too erratic. But post-Brexit it has started now to settle into what one could call a "normal" currency pair relationship.

So that is now where I am hanging my hat.

The US is in its death throes, hung by its debt and its own constitution. It will take time but, like all empires, it is dying and it is not pretty to watch, let alone participate in it.   
Title: Re: S&P500
Post by: Peterma on November 26, 2021, 09:26:26 PM
Eur/Gbp is a huge part of my business, always has been since 2001 - trading on the only EU/GB land border.

Most businesses here have 2 bank a/c's - one Euro and one Stg - we sell and buy in both currencies.

Over the years i have come to understand that this cross is dominated by Eur/Usd - from week to week the influence will move from one to the other.

Last week it was Gbp strength and it's numbers 'forcing' the BOE to raise in Dec, then this past week it's USD strength and the confirmed appointment of Powell.

So today the market is hit with the new covid variant from Africa and risk is big time off complicated with a thin market in US   - nothing to do with E/G

Not so - they buy the Euro because they are selling the USd (see Eur/Usd & Usd/Jpy)

So what about S&P - the thread title - easy - sell risk.

So what about Eue/Gbp - glad to say from my personal pov a return up - but not so sure for how long.

I've many times said this - there is only one market :)