Author Topic: Global Economy  (Read 657 times)

Caesar

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Global Economy
« on: November 03, 2019, 05:36:28 PM »
Found this today and thought it was interesting.
Would love to see comparable charts from 5/10  years ago

Kaitsu

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2019, 08:08:43 PM »
That is an interesting and clever presentation!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

eddieb

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 10:31:45 PM »
The beauty of it is in its simplicity.  A lot of information presented in a very clear an obvious way. Even the most illiterate could see which segments of the ball are larger than others.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2020, 07:51:59 PM »
Most European markets finished up today.
The FTSE gained 4% and now looks set to go for 5700, a level not reached since 13th March.
German DAX followed yesterdays 11% jump with another 1%.

In the US 1-month and 3-month yields turned negative – it’s the first time we have seen negative rates in the US, although of course fed funds rates remain positive. The Federal Reserve’s massive dose of stimulus and unlimited QE has crushed yields at the short end of the curve.

Tomorrows US jobless figures will likely prove to be market-movers one way or the other. Usually in the thousands, there are fears it could be in the millions this week due to the government shutdown. Consensus suggests a 1.5m print – way ahead of the usual numbers which trend about 200k week to week. Morgan Stanley has estimated in excess of 3m. Last week’s print rose to 281k from 211k a week before but the real impact of the coronavirus is to hit.
In Canada, according to Justin Trudeau, a million Canadians applied for jobless benefits last week – extrapolate that to the US and we could be in for true shocker of a print tomorrow.

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2020, 01:17:36 PM »
Wow!
The latest US unemployment numbers were predicted to be catastrophic.

The actual total, 3.3 million, turned out to be even worse than expected.

The record-breaking amount reflects a US economy put into deep-freeze almost overnight. The government-ordered shutdown hasn’t just shuttered businesses temporarily, it has vapourised the jobs of millions of Americans – many of whom are the particularly vulnerable hourly service workers who live paycheque to paycheque.

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2020, 01:51:59 PM »
After yesterdays rises across the globe,  it didn't come as muvhvof a surprise to see prices falling back today as traders take some profits ahead of the weekend.

Things are clearly stabilising,  but there are still questions to be answered plus we don't know how long or how deep this virus will continue.

Still a bumpy road ahead for the foreseeable future

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2020, 08:29:45 PM »
Beginning to think that, when we finally come out of this situation, it is going to be a different world to before.
Working from home seems to be working out fairly smoothing for many, especially former office workers.  As IT departments find more efficient ways of using this technology and, perhaps more importantly for employers, find better ways to monitor employees work behaviour, the potential savings in office space and associated costs might mean an end to travelling to the office every day for many.
This in turn would have repercussions for transport providers facing reduced transport use, garages selling less fuel, even sandwich shops and restaurants having fewer lunchtime customers.

Cinemas may close as customers who have signed up to streaming services no longer visit them, preferring to maximise their subscriptions instead.

Its a virtual certainty that many industries will see mass consolidation,  resulting in less choice for consumers.  Airlines and cruise lines spring to mind.

There will be new opportunities,  possibly disruptors even, who benefit and we have to hope that this turns out to be a watershed that changes society,  ultimately,  for the better.

eddieb

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2020, 04:31:38 PM »
US unemployment has shot up again,  by another 6.6 million to around 10 million

Thats a lot of households struggling to survive
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 07:03:32 PM by eddieb »
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2020, 07:52:39 AM »
Most Asian markets were up this morning,  the stand-out exception being Japans Nikkei on news that Japan have declared a state of emergency following rises in coronavirus cases.

Need to keep an eye on China though, any hint of a second wave of the virus will not only affect Asian, but global markets

Kaitsu

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2020, 08:48:31 AM »
Most Asian markets were up this morning,
There is a strange contradiction at present in the coronavirus environment.

On one side we are seeing stock markets recovering and some countries already talking of being past the peak and planning the removal of restrictions.

On the other side, we are hearing considerable economic "doomsday" scenarios from senior figures in economics and markets. Talking about being on the brink of the worst economic recession in living memory, etc.

Most of the global financial and governmental institutions seem to be agreeing enormous sums of money to rescue and protect businesses and hopefully turn this into a steep "V" shaped economic phenomena whereby we quickly rise to where we were before outbreak. That may well happen, but the economists are reminding us that these humungously large borrowings will have to be repaid - and repaid by the upcoming generations. How is that going to fit into a growing economy if workers are burdened with heavy taxations to pay for these debts?

I am also wondering how the rating agencies such as Standard and Poors are going to have to adjust their models because these additional borrowings by some countries will, by some measures and ratios, reclassify them as junk risk based on current models!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2020, 10:47:40 AM »
After better than expected numbers from China, Asian markets opened positively today.
China's exports 'only' fell 6.6% in March (-14% was expected) and imports only fell by 0.9%, against an expected 9.5%.

Looking forward, it looks like lockdowns are with us for a while. France are closed until May 11th at the earliest, India until May 3rd (which I personally think is way too soon), and the UK look likely to extend until May 7th or beyond. In the USA, Trump is already talking about, and pushing governors for, reopening parts of the economy despite a growing 22,000 deaths.

Opec have agreed to cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day over the next 2 months. The oil price is still wavering, with no real movement in either direction yet.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 10:50:03 AM by Caesar »

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2020, 09:37:53 AM »
China gdp fell for the first time since at least 1992 by -6.8% year on year
Retail sales down c16%, production only fell 1.1%. Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets reacted well to this news

Separately,  Wuhan region revised up its covid 19 deaths by c50%, citing not all the early deaths were recorded as covid 19 and only hospital deaths had been counted,  as is the case in the UK
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 09:39:30 AM by Caesar »

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2020, 01:49:51 PM »
Another 4.4 million unemployed in the US according to todays figures, taking the total to over 20 million.

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2020, 10:24:56 PM »
The US unemployment figures just keep rising.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52398837

Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2020, 09:50:49 AM »
Germany’s top court laid down a challenge to the European Union: who is the final arbiter in European law? German judges think the ECB needs to show buying bonds under QE was proportionate. They have 3 months to comply.
The ECB central bank said it ‘takes note’ of the judgment by the German Federal Constitutional Court but remains ‘fully committed’ to its price stability mandate. Finally, it added simply: “The Court of Justice of the European Union ruled in December 2018 that the ECB is acting within its price stability mandate.” Quite clearly the German court cannot overrule the ECJ – that's the whole point, it’s why the UK wanted out.
Italy’s PM Conte agrees, noting that ECB independence is at the heart of European treaties.The euro has held onto losses to test the 1.0820 level this morning, as German factory orders declined 15.6 per cent, more than the 10 per cent expected.