Author Topic: Global Economy  (Read 1375 times)

eddieb

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2020, 01:58:45 PM »
I read this online earlier today, a bit concerning.

Comments by Minneapolis Fed president, Neel Kashkari

    Bad jobs report would understate damage because many people are not looking for work
    Thinks that true unemployment rate is 23% to 24%
    But report likely to show a lower number
    Says can avoid depression scenario but US is in for a long gradual recovery
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Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2020, 01:30:56 PM »
Looks like  more bad job news is expected.

White House economic advisers said Sunday that the US is likely to see "very difficult" unemployment numbers in May, with unemployment rates nearing 20%.

Last month, as the US continued to battle the coronavirus, the country saw the unemployment rate jump to 14.7% with a devastating loss of 20.5 million jobs, according to a report released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The disappointing figures for April are the worst the US has seen since the Great Depression and are particularly shocking when compared to those in February when unemployment was at a 50-year low of 3.5%.

Considering the global state of economies, its amazing there isnt more panic evident
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Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2020, 02:47:46 PM »
From yesterday's newspapers

Bank of England warn of possibly worst UK recession in 300 years. Output could fall 30% in first half of this year and 2 million to lose their jobs.

Spains services sector show  reading of 7.1 for April- anything below 50 is contraction and this is a long way below 50.

Germany says industrial production fell 9.2% in March,  more than expected.

France statistics show economy running at 33% of normal levels.

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Caesar

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2020, 09:53:08 AM »
US initial jobless claims came in at 2.4m as expected and was the lowest reading since March. It takes the total jobs lost since the crisis began to almost 39million.

As various US states reopen and business gets going again, we ought to see hiring exceed firing. The key will be how swiftly the hiring replaces lost jobs – it’s hard to see the 39m being replaced as quickly as they were lost. Temporary layoffs will become permanent as businesses slowly reopen and find demand down and cash flow a problem
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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2020, 07:59:18 AM »
As if we didn't already have enough to contend with, Chinas proposed new legislation for Hong Kong sent the HK market spinning down 5% on Friday.
With all the rhetoric from the West over the weekend,  don't be surprised if European,  UK, and US markets fall when they reopen.
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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2020, 04:29:36 PM »
In the USA, 40.8 million people have now filed for unemployment benefits through state programs over the past ten weeks, according to figures released by the Labor Department today. The 2.1 million claims filed last week marks the eighth straight week in a row that unemployment filings declined after they historically peaked at 6.9 million for the week ending on March 28.
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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2020, 11:42:28 AM »
Next Monday (8th) Germany release figures that are expected to confirm industrial production has plummeted, and by Friday we should have the rest of the EU's corresponding figures.
On a more positive note, China are expected to show around 6% growth in money supply and the Fed should confirm that rates in the US will remain close to zero for some time.
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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2020, 01:56:23 PM »
The dollar gains after May's US non-farm payrolls report far exceeded analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in April while payrolls rose by 2.5 million, according to the Labor Department. Economists polled by the WSJ expected payrolls to fall by 8.3 million and the jobless rate to rise to 19.5%. The dollar index rises 0.2% to 96.8630, compared to 96.6880 before the data. EUR/USD falls 0.2% to 1.1307 versus 1.1335 beforehand. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2020, 09:33:16 PM »
The economic downturn in the US triggered by the pandemic has been officially declared a recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research made the designation on Tuesday, citing the scale and severity of the current contraction.

It said activity and employment hit a "clear" and "well-defined" peak in February, before falling.

The ruling puts a formal end to what had been more than a decade of expansion - the longest in US history
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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #24 on: June 10, 2020, 01:12:01 PM »
Chinese inflation figures were soft, with producer prices down 3.7 per cent, the worst drop in four years, and consumer prices rising by 2.4 per cent, down from 3.3 per cent in April.
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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #25 on: June 10, 2020, 08:45:07 PM »
America's central bank will continue actions designed to shore up the US economy, but warned of "considerable risks" posed by coronavirus.

The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates toward zero at the onset of the pandemic and has pledged to maintain low rates until the economy is back on track.

Policymakers on Wednesday said they expected to keep rates low until the end of 2022.

The report sent US shares higher.

Financial markets have rallied since March, a rebound that some analysts say has been facilitated by the Fed's aggressive response to the health and economic crisis.

It has pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system, buying up US Treasuries and other assets to encourage banks to keep lending and prevent a market collapse.

It has also stepped in with new programmes to lend to small and medium-sized firms and buy corporate and municipal debt.

The Fed on Wednesday said financial conditions had improved but that it would continue asset purchases at the current levels.
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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #26 on: June 19, 2020, 09:53:55 AM »
US retail sales are estimated to have risen by 17.7 per cent during May 2020, to €486bn. This follows on from a 14.7 per cent contraction in April to $413bn.
It is still early days and we could very easily see a second wave of Covid-19, but it is encouraging.
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eddieb

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #27 on: August 13, 2020, 09:18:49 AM »
Traders may wish to keep an eye on the US jobless claims numbers which are out at 1:30pm today.
Forecast is for 1.120k against last weeks 1.186k. The general trend over the past 5/6 weeks has been downward, and a continuation of this would boost the dollar. Conversely, a number higher than forecast would probably cause it to fall.

Namaste
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eddieb

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2020, 07:48:27 AM »
S&P lost 1.77% yesterday, Nasdaq 1.99%, and Tokyo made a sluggish start this morning as globally shares continued to drop.
All eyes on the first few hours in Europe and the UK to see if this continues.
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eddieb

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Re: Global Economy
« Reply #29 on: October 20, 2020, 01:02:12 PM »
Saw this reported today.

The International Monetary Fund said last week it expects the Chinese economy to grow 1.9% this year, while every other G20 economy is set to shrink.
New numbers this week out of Beijing suggest that that might even be too pessimistic: Chinese gross domestic product was up 4.9% from a year earlier in the third quarter and was up 2.7% from the second quarter. Encouragingly, both industrial production and retail sales ended the quarter with growing momentum, posting their best growth since the pandemic struck.
Even allowing for China’s traditional ability to generate the kind of GDP statistics it wants, the picture is too clear to ignore: the draconian clampdown on public life in January and February has allowed a more vigorous recovery than anywhere else in the world.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading