Author Topic: Gold  (Read 772 times)

PipMeHappy

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Re: Gold
« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2020, 03:35:13 PM »
@BWS  Yes, profit-taking.

Also notice that it is sitting a few points above those Aug. 2011 highs, therefore It has not fallen below and is deciding whether
to continue higher, sit flat for a bit, or break below those low 1900s ...

Huge pause

Stay away haha

PipMe

Kim

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Re: Gold
« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2020, 04:15:18 PM »
Hi.
Can I ask a dumb question?
If the price of Gold is going up mainly does this have an effect on what cost gold jewelery will be? Or is this just related to gold bullion, bars, or coins?

Kaitsu

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Re: Gold
« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2020, 07:48:33 PM »
If the price of Gold is going up mainly does this have an effect on what cost gold jewelery will be? Or is this just related to gold bullion, bars, or coins?
In the same way that the price of crude oil affects the price of refined fuels so changes in the price of gold will eventually filter through the production process and affect the consumer sale price of jewelry containing gold. However, gold is just the raw material and there are other factors that also affect the price of the final product such as the artistic skill, the general state of the economy, tax rates, etc.   
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kim

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Re: Gold
« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2020, 11:22:42 AM »
Thank you Kaitsu.
I hadnt thought about the other costs. They probably make up a big part of the retail price.

PipMeHappy

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Re: Gold
« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2020, 09:25:08 PM »
@Kim  as our knowledgeable @Kaitsu  said, it is a top-down filtering, like central bank interest rates affecting mortgage rates.

As I said in my video, globally gold is 33% recycled, so a 1/3 is not newly produced and does not require fresh extraction.

There is also numismatic gold, i.e. heritage/historic gold coins... I was looking at some this evening, a Louis XV (18th C.) gold

coin of Mint standard (not circulated) worth over $3k: this would have a high appreciation in time regardless of gold's erratic

movements.

There is a thought...

Kaitsu

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Re: Gold
« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2020, 07:14:55 AM »
as our knowledgeable @Kaitsu  said
Hmmm, I don't "know" about that!   :D

Unfortunately, that is still a "work in progress"! :D :D

As an aside, in the age of Trumpism, I am really no longer sure what the definitions of concepts like "knowledge" and "truth" really are any more! Rather than being absolutes these terms now seem to reflect the skill in determining what other people believe rather than how things are! In the same way as wrongdoing is no longer what you do but what you get caught doing!

Cynical? Maybe! I hope so!  ;D

Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

PipMeHappy

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Re: Gold
« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2020, 01:37:08 PM »
Great post, @Kaitsu!

Back to Gold (sorry, just a quick visit here):
it is now re-testing those August 2011 highs, with
a similarly bearish move from EUR/USD which just broke
below 1.18 today:


BWS

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Re: Gold
« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2020, 11:27:07 AM »
A good day for most metals today, silver is over 2% up on the day and gold and copper both over 1% up. All helped by a weak Dollar as well as ongoing economic uncertainties.
The same uncertainties holding Brent and WTI down, with both trading marginally below yesterdays close.
"I wouldn't say I'm the best manager in the business, but I'm probably in the top 1" - Brian Clough

eddieb

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Re: Gold
« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2020, 09:51:56 AM »
Gold seems stuck in a range this past few weeks. If we ignore 2 days of volatility from 2048 on 10th August and a low of 1891 on 12th August, price then has wavered between 2015 and 1917.

Lower highs but stable lows on the months chart, plus a strengthening USD suggest it wouldnt take much to push price down further but looking longer term, especially if we get any further Covid vaccine delays or a second wave, could send it back upwards again
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

BWS

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Re: Gold
« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2020, 10:52:55 AM »
Its well and truly broken below that range now, running at 1850 currently, a good 125+ below its price just a week ago.
"I wouldn't say I'm the best manager in the business, but I'm probably in the top 1" - Brian Clough

eddieb

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Re: Gold
« Reply #25 on: October 09, 2020, 02:26:23 PM »
Following a weakening of the dollar, gold has climbed back above the $1900 level, currently sitting at $1925, a new recent high.
How long this is sustained is anyones guess, I think the nearer we get to the US election and the sooner a clear winner becomes obvious, the sooner dollar will rise and gold fall
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

PipMeHappy

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Re: Gold
« Reply #26 on: October 16, 2020, 06:47:36 AM »
Hello everyone,

this may or may not be of interest, but I talked in some of my videos about Gold
and it is something of interest generally in terms of how supply/demand works
on price - a very complex factor that is difficult to trade or identify.

What I wanted to highlight is that there is no 'gold rush' modern equivalent in
terms of mining/supply - as opposed to risk-off speculative positioning - of the
likes of the Klondike (Yukon) 1896 - 1899 one. What is interesting is that the
thousands of hopefuls who braved extreme conditions to find the precious metal,
and the media headlines that followed the phenomenon, dwindled away with no
effect on Gold's prices (see the relative dates on the attached document).

As the attachment header shows, Gold prices were pretty much fixed until 1972-3
when effectively a free-floating system came to be: what effect on price would
a similar Gold rush have on this instrument now, with price free to move? Hard to
imagine.

In April 2016 I made this video where I show how little effect headlines can have
on the markets, e.g. what Main Street sees as a threat is not viewed through the
same lens by Wall Street:



This similar mindset can be applied to Gold when we consider its appeal in
risk-on/risk-off scenarios, i.e. a drop in stock markets does not necessarily
result in a massive Gold appreciation; nor do natural disasters or presidential
election shocks result in a risk-off bearish stock market.

All this is academic, of course, because in the end it comes down to this:
how much can these ideas be traded with targets and profitability?

Happy trading
Stay safe
PipMeHappy

Pipstar

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Re: Gold
« Reply #27 on: October 16, 2020, 11:32:57 AM »
Thats a very impressive post Pip Me Happy. I dont know how you pull it all together theres just so much information!

Do you use all this in your trading or is this just an interest of yours?

PipMeHappy

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Re: Gold
« Reply #28 on: October 16, 2020, 12:44:30 PM »
Thats a very impressive post Pip Me Happy. I dont know how you pull it all together theres just so much information!

Do you use all this in your trading or is this just an interest of yours?

Thats a very impressive post Pip Me Happy. I dont know how you pull it all together theres just so much information!

Do you use all this in your trading or is this just an interest of yours?

Hello @Pipstar  thank you, glad you enjoyed reading this.

To be honest I have always had an inquisitive mind, e.g. when I studied ancient literature (e.g. mediaeval) at school

I would pull out dictionaries to find out the origin of words, and how the modern meaning compared to the old.

This is why I enjoy fundamental analysis and seeing the market in 'themes', but I do find that technical analysis is

key and easier to implement than trying to fit a fundamental narrative on, say, the daily movements of an fx Major pair!

In short: I like to think beyond the here and now, because as someone who tries to get better at trading

it is not enough to look at price going up and down between levels as we need to try forecasting where it may go next

in order to position all probabilities in favour of our trades.

Of course, traders (like economists) will get their projections wrong a lot of the time, but if we keep losses under control

and come out as net-profitable then the issue is not so much how we do our projections but rather whether they can

be used profitably overall.

Some theories are difficult to backtest or quantify, but let us break things down as though we were a computer:

HUMAN QUESTION: should I go short the stock market now. sell the S&P500?

COMPUTER translates human question thus: on what basis should I short the stock market and would that be best by selling the S&P500 now?

The difference between the two questions is that the computer needs to find whether there is a basis (usually historical) that can be tested to

go short the S&P500, and if there is no basis (on the grounds of backtesting a particular strategy - e.g. go short when RSI is oversold <30 and

Chaikin Money Flow is below 0, and the 50-day MA moves below the 100-day OR price moves below the 100-day MA) then the computer will

ignore the S&P500 and look for other indices such as Russell 2000, Nasdaq, FTSE100, DAX, etc. If the same test for the same sample period

(e.g. last ten years) shows that under the same conditions the sell signals generated a profit then the computer would answer 'yes'.


I hope this has not sent you to... sleep....

Take care
PipMe

PipMeHappy

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Re: Gold
« Reply #29 on: October 16, 2020, 07:00:36 PM »
Gold confirms the bearish breakout from the symmetrical triangle from a few weeks ago,
though it has put in a pullback to that 2011 top (pink line)
which by some standards could invalidate the breakout.

Pullbacks after a breakout can sometimes result in a strong continuation
in the direction of the breakout...

Wait and see...