GBPUSD

[Kaitsu]

This thread completes my main trading interests.

Since Brexit is perhaps the only game in town this week, and everyone knows what is going on there at present, there is not really much more to add right now until it happens - but I just wanted to set this up ready!

[eddieb]

Good morning guys and gals!

I put on a tiny short trade here yesterday evening, just because I cannot see both the Dup and parliament giving BJ what he wants.

Delighted to hear on radio that Dup have proven me right, and I am now 75 pips to the good and have moved my stop to about 30 pips of profit.

Not the sort of thing I normally do, but I felt sure about this.

Namaste

[Kaitsu]

Good call, good timing, good position management! 

Have you also set a target?

[eddieb]

1.255 but I think I will get stopped out soon as prices are rising again

[Kaitsu]

1.255 but I think I will get stopped out soon as prices are rising again

I agree that is very likely in these twitchy markets. But I also think that is all we can do to keep a few pips rolling in until things get settled. 100 pips one way and/or the other is nothing in this pair in this kind of situation (as you know of course!  ).

I agree with you that the outlook is more likely to be failure whatever the EU-UK outcome is today. The Saturday vote in the UK parliament is hardly likely to accept it outright whatever it is.

Trouble is, this pair could go anywhere in the meantime!

[eddieb]

As expected, got stopped out but with some profit. Interesting that sterling is falling again now that realisation has set in re the difficulty of getting the deal through Parliament.
Will be listening closely to what is said over the next few days, might dip my toes again

[Kaitsu]

As expected, got stopped out but with some profit.

Nicely managed!

At least it seems both sides of the negotiations were genuinely working hard to create a solution, and succeeded.

It is very depressing to see the immediate strong rejection from DUP, Labour and other political entities. Almost as though anything would have been rejected regardless of its actual content.

It is not surprising that GBP-based pairs are extremely volatile at present and to get any profit out of them under present conditions is a good result!

Well done!

[Kaitsu]

The GBPUSD saw a major upmove last week as the markets and business saw a serious possibility that the end of the Brexit saga was now in sight.

However, these hopes were seriously dented by the postponement of voting on the new deal on Saturday which forced the government to apply for a further extension from the EU (which is rumoured to have already been agreed until February 2021).

But the GBP suffered only a slight fall back in the Far East this morning to just below 1.29.

Today, Monday 21.10. is likely to be a major event with the UK parliament starting its handling of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which deals with the actual implementation of the divorce deal if it is agreed.

With the possibility of a delay in the Brexit deadline it is possible that the opposition will have greater confidence in pushing for its own amendments on worker's rights, etc, even if it drags on for several days.

According to the Leader of the House, the UK government will also again try today to secure a "meaningful" vote on the deal itself, which was postponed last Saturday. This depends on whether the House Speaker John Bercow allows it. The opposition claim it would be against normal practices to allow a debate on the same issue twice without some substantial change.

The government is adamant that it has sufficient numbers now to get the deal approved and still meet the original 31.10 deadline. But the mathematics still show that the voting will be extremely close and it is really impossible to predict which way it will go, if there is a vote on the deal at all today.

The dilemma here for traders, if they are not already in a position, is that the market may well react violently in either direction depending on these outcomes. If the deal is agreed without additions, then Brexit is all but finalised, But if it fails, or is agreed subject to ratification via a public referendum, then we are plunged back into a scenario facing a general election, and/or referendums on either the new deal or even whether to leave or not.

Technically we are looking very positive and are approaching the weekly 200-period SMA at around 1.3145 having already passed above and retested the daily 200 SMA at 1.2712

[Kaitsu]

Price has reached the highs of last week and so I decided, somewhat reluctantly, to close out my day trade long here for 50 pips as a start for the week.

It certainly looks like this market is set for a firm climb higher but from here that is more of a punt than a strategic position so I am flat at this point.

As I understand it, John Bercow will declare whether he will allow a further vote on the BJ deal today at 13.30 GMT (now moved to about 15.30 BST).

[Kim]

Brexit is so frustrating 
Everything in the 3 ducks points to buying gbpusd but it’s just way too risky.  I’m going to buy audjpy instead if the 5 minute candle rises a bit

[Kaitsu]

As I understand it, John Bercow will declare whether he will allow a further vote on the BJ deal today at 13.30 GMT (now moved to about 15.30 BST).

Mr Bercow has declared that there will not be a vote on BJ's deal today because it would be a repeat of Saturday's debate. I am slightly surprised because there was not actually a vote at all last Saturday.

GBPUSD has come to a halt and is still sitting here on last week's highs.

Where do we go from here? I wouldn't be surprised if, as soon as the EU confirms an extension (which is by no means a foregone conclusion, but likely), we will see a call for a general election, either from BJ or via a vote of no confidence from the opposition. That would push Brexit back to the year-end at least, I should think!

A lot of EU people are getting very frustrated and it is just possible one of the 27 countries will say "enough".........

[Kim]

Have the EU27 voted on the new Brexit deal yet or is there a chance they could reject it?

[Kaitsu]

Have the EU27 voted on the new Brexit deal yet or is there a chance they could reject it?

As far as I am aware, they have not voted on it, but are surely discussing it! I do not think they will formally vote on it before the UK has made its own decision. I have not heard any negative comments from any EU sources that they might be against it.

The delay decision is another matter. That will require unanimous approval and there is a real possibility that some country could refuse. But the prevailing feeling from the EU is a great reluctance to agree any further delay but a readiness to do so if it will materially assist in achieving an orderly exit. They will clearly want to know what the delay is going to achieve before agreeing anything.

[Caesar]

I've gone long @ 1.2918 with a target of 1.3190, not a huge sum but worth a punt.  If today's vote goes governments way, then increased chance of the deal getting through,  if it fails then an extension possible and either way no-deal is off the table.

[Caesar]

Okay, so stop moved to secure a small profit. Now I can turn off and let it do its thing.