Author Topic: GBPUSD  (Read 3051 times)

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2019, 06:20:43 PM »
Okay, so stop moved to secure a small profit. Now I can turn off and let it do its thing.

Good luck! :)

Its a tight stop and there might be some juggling around as the voting on the timetable approaches, very soon now. BJ says he will pull the bill if his tight timetable is not agreed and Labour says now they are prepared to compromise on the timing!

Will be watching!

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2019, 07:20:38 AM »
I was not surprised, and in fact pleased, that the UK government refused to be bullied into processing such a hugely major bill in 3 days just to suit BJ's timetable of 31.10.

But I was surprised, and had anticipated totally wrongly, how mild the markets' reaction was to the defeat of the timetable vote. There was hardly any spontaneous reaction and counter-reaction such as with a typical NFP release, for example.

There are maybe two reason for this. One is that the markets still hold the view that Brexit is nearly over and that a crash out with no deal on 31.10. is now off the table.

The other reason may be that the speculative trading element of market activity has been largely sidelined due to the total impossibility of forming a rational view whilst the government is hampered by a minority in parliament.

Personally, this has been a very weak performance month, not because of losses but because of a lack of trades, lack of confidence to do size in those trades and a lack of follow-through on moves resulting in small pip gains.

In terms of my own equity management rules, this makes it difficult now to trade normally until the month-end because I can only risk a portion of the month's results to date in order to ensure I still finish the month with an acceptable result. It is just one of my rules.

So, given the continuing uncertainty regarding what happens next in the Brexit story, it is going to be hard to find a decent scenario to trade for the next week.  ::)

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2019, 04:30:06 PM »
Couldn't resist a quick buy today as there is an overall positive feel to the Brexit/general election scenario.

But ahead of the voting it has not given very much and so, being near the month-end, I took the 30 pips to the bank.

I would like to put on a longer term GBP position, but I am really not too sure whether a December general election is, in itself, such a major "Good Thing". It just means things are moving out of the stagnation of recent times, but the end result is still in cloudy waters.

So maybe now is not yet the right time for that, so I will continue just to take what I can get.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2019, 06:18:14 AM by Emerson »

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2019, 09:04:12 AM »
In my opinion, the decision to hold a general election in December considerably changes the fundamentals for GBP pairs. We have seen a strong rally in recent weeks, but now, apart from a dormant deal on the table, we are back to the roots of the entire Brexit issue.

The main parties in the UK cover and promote the entire spectrum of possibilities ranging from a no-deal crash-out to cancelling the entire thing by withdrawing Article 50 (which the UK can do unilaterally).

So I think that, in broad terms, trading over the next 5-6 weeks will be focused on campaign talks and a constant stream of poll results. I.e. end of trending, start of ranging.

eddieb

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2019, 02:58:15 PM »
Uncertainty is never good for the market and, bearing in mind that it looks likely that we'll end up with a minority government possibly propped up by the Brexit party,  it doesn't look great.

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2019, 03:14:32 PM »
bearing in mind that it looks likely that we'll end up with a minority government possibly propped up by the Brexit party,  it doesn't look great.
Judging by the way the mud was flying already today, I wonder if anyone will vote for anyone!!   :-[

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2019, 12:03:23 PM »
NFP today will impact the USD side of this pair. Purely on technicals my preference is a continuation on the upside.

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2019, 12:00:04 PM »
Yesterday was an inside day with a small range and a slightly lower close of about 7 pips on the day ahead of the weekend.

Technicals remain positive on the longer end but a little neutral in the intraday TFs.

Overall GBP seems well supported but can expect some fluctuations in the near term from gallop polls, rumours and various political statements.

eddieb

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2019, 12:11:54 PM »
With a UK election coming up, followed by the holiday season,  followed by Brexit part 3, it's hard to see any stability in Sterling pairs. This particular pair might also move around depending on US impeachment process, trade talks with China, and the presidents tweets

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2019, 12:24:16 PM »
With a UK election coming up
This is going to be a strong factor, I'm sure. Especially with the added unknown of the Brexit Party which is fighting its first election. Having seen its invitation to BJ to join forces being snuffed (which Donald Trump also pushed as forming an unstoppable force), Nigel Farage has threatened to challenge the Conservatives in every seat.

This may well divide and dilute the Conservative supporters and end up with either yet another hung parliament or even a Labour victory. Especially as the NHS is a very sensitive issue in the UK right now with fears of it being sold out to US companies!

So there is room and reason for some big swings in the fortunes of the Great British Pound over the next few weeks. But for now it is still looking optimistic. But worth holding tight on the bends!
« Last Edit: November 02, 2019, 03:45:46 PM by Emerson »

Caesar

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2019, 12:43:03 PM »
Could be very profitable for short term traders, taking advantage of daily news.  Harder for long term as a weeks patient trading could be wiped out by one political gaffe or tweet

Kaitsu

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2019, 03:45:29 PM »
Harder for long term as a weeks patient trading could be wiped out by one political gaffe or tweet
Precisely my thinking at present, and not only about the GBP. I think long runs on any pair or instrument is becoming unlikely as we approach the year end and with many unpredictables around.

Personally I am finding 4H/1H set ups with fixed pip targets, and typically open for less than 48 hours, are working most consistently in my type of markets.


Caesar

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2019, 09:28:03 PM »
GbpUsd has now slipped below 1.30 again.
Combination of a strong dollar generally following Fridays numbers and uncertainty over the UK December election.

eddieb

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #28 on: November 05, 2019, 05:17:54 PM »
I have just shorted this pair at  1.29. Stop at 1.305, TP at an ambitious 1.225.
As you can guess, I don't have much faith in UK politicians ( or the electorate for that matter)

eddieb

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Re: GBPUSD
« Reply #29 on: November 06, 2019, 05:25:41 PM »
I have just shorted this pair at  1.29. Stop at 1.305, TP at an ambitious 1.225.
As you can guess, I don't have much faith in UK politicians ( or the electorate for that matter)

Marginally in profit now, but my stop is still in a losing position for the time being