Author Topic: EURGBP  (Read 284 times)

Kaitsu

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EURGBP
« on: October 02, 2019, 07:13:38 AM »
Boris Johnson reveals today his government's proposals for a Brexit agreement with the EU. This is a very significant crossroads in the on-going Brexit saga.

If it offers sufficiently substantial concrete proposals then we will see proper negotiations progressing very quickly.

But the deadline is the EU summit 17-18 Oct which only leaves 2 weeks from now. Therefore, if the EU feels that there are not even sufficient new proposals in today's release to start negotiations then there is hardly time left for any further new ideas before the summit and the triggering of the UK Act requiring the PM to request a further extension.

But, on the other hand, if we do finally see a break-through (and a resolution of some kind must happen eventually), will the EURGBP pair become a major trading instrument.

Maybe worth starting to follow this one more closely.

 

Kim

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2019, 07:40:20 AM »
It will be interesting to see the actual proposal after all the rumours and speculation. Could be a difficult day for gbp and euro pairs

Kaitsu

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2019, 07:59:37 AM »
I have been interested in this pair for a long time, anticipating its evolvement into a genuine pair of independently moving currencies. But this interest has been sidelined all the time while Brexit rolled on.

But I am mildly excited to think are we finally at the end of the Brexit uncertainty at the end of this week.

This pair has actually been moving very nicely from a trading viewpoint since August, and I am going to keep a closer interest in this now. 

This 4-hour chart with the 20-50 zone shows some good steady moves.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 07:38:28 PM by Emerson »

Caesar

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2019, 08:05:01 AM »
I'll be watching to see if they diverge after Brexit. Certainly expect them to be more volatile than in the past, so might be some good opportunities

Kaitsu

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 07:00:56 AM »
So the UK government's Queen's Speech came and went in its own unique regal spectacular pageantry (see attachment).

Followed by all kinds of comments on its contents and Brexit.

BUt this, I think is perhaps the lowest form of political mud wallowing I have seen in a long time. Is this what the "Great" in Great Britain has sunk down to?

"Boris Johnson would veto the EU’s seven-year budget and send a Eurosceptic commissioner to Brussels to “disrupt” the bloc’s workings if he were forced into a Brexit delay, under plans being discussed by ministers.

Senior Government figures are considering a series of proposals to “sabotage” the EU’s structures if Brussels refuses to agree a new deal or let Mr Johnson deliver Brexit without one.

Two Cabinet ministers told this newspaper that they were among those backing a more “aggressive” approach towards Brussels."


But, anyway, I am tired of sitting on the sidelines and just watching the EURGBP so with itchy fingers I set up a modest short position yesterday. The stop is above those peaks in red circles from last week and the target is the weekly 200-period SMA. (see attachment)

So far it is about 50 pips green but this could literally go anywhere this week so this is a set-and-forget trade. This is the first trade I've posted here on NTN (I think), so its probably damned to destruction already!  ;D
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 07:38:48 PM by Emerson »

Kim

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2019, 07:35:40 AM »
I will be watching your trade with eager eyes, so no pressure  :D

Kaitsu

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2019, 10:03:05 AM »
I will be watching your trade with eager eyes, so no pressure  :D

 :o :o :o

Actually I've adjusted the trade (even though it is a set-and-forget! :D)

We reached the lower edge of last week's range and that could be a holding point without further fresh info. I should also mention that this low from last week is also at the big "psychosupport" level  0,8700. But if the momentum from the current sentiment carries it through this support level then I still think that weekly SMA is a good target.

 But since there is now a profit of 70+ pips I have moved my SL to just over B/E to lock in at least a few green pips if we bounce from here. But target is still the same.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 07:39:01 PM by Emerson »

Kaitsu

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2019, 03:29:00 PM »
Another change! :D

Although we are pressing nicely lower as the psychosupport at 0,8700 is breaking, the news is talking very much of only a few more hours left for the EU negotiators in Luxembourg to arrive at an agreement in time to be handled at the summit on Thurs/Fri. Therefore there is a huge risk of a temporary backlash if nothing is agreed.

It seems clear that whether we go south or north from here depends entirely on what comes out of that session, so I decided to take a round 100 pips (actually 99,9) and call it a day. Someone else can have those last few pips down to the weekly 200 SMA if it gets there. I would have been very disappointed to only breakeven after the wait when I could have had the 100 pips.

So there it is. Whether this is an example of cowardice, not running one's gains,  or just an example of sensible risk/reward discretionary assessment, is for the reader to decide! :D

« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 07:39:13 PM by Emerson »

Kaitsu

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2019, 03:58:40 PM »
And there it is! Beautiful!

Do I regret exiting too soon? No, it was the bulk of the trade in the bank and just a great joy to see how the trade strategy played out.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 07:39:27 PM by Emerson »

Caesar

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2019, 08:25:17 AM »
Now that Brexit is taking a rest while the UK sorts out its election, other matters in Europe come a bit more to the fore.
Coming up we have a lot of UK economic data which could tip sentiment one way or the other, GDP figures on Monday,  jobs on Tuesday,  and inflation numbers on Wednesday,  so there could be a bit of volatility and some trading opportunities.
In Europe,  the biggest focus will be to see if Germany has slipped into recession or not. If it has, the Euro could take a dip.
All worth watching,  but I will be avoiding the actual new release times themselves.

Kaitsu

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2019, 10:47:11 AM »
Now that Brexit is taking a rest while the UK sorts out its election, other matters in Europe come a bit more to the fore.
Coming up we have a lot of UK economic data which could tip sentiment one way or the other, GDP figures on Monday,  jobs on Tuesday,  and inflation numbers on Wednesday,  so there could be a bit of volatility and some trading opportunities.
In Europe,  the biggest focus will be to see if Germany has slipped into recession or not. If it has, the Euro could take a dip.
All worth watching,  but I will be avoiding the actual new release times themselves.

This market is due for a breakout, but I am not sure if it is going to happen unless there are some fairly dramatic news. Looking at the attached daily chart, the EURGBP has been in a fairly tight range for nearly a month now. Again, good for short, quick trades. But a frustrating disappointment for trend traders, I think?
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 07:39:40 PM by Emerson »

Markaria

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2019, 01:19:36 PM »
As USD pairs of currencies are affected by Mr Trumps tweets and his often changing his mind,  I find eurgbp more straight forward to understand now.  It is affected by more reliable predictable things like monetary policy and not by one persons moods

Kaitsu

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Re: EURGBP
« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2019, 08:20:53 AM »
Christine Lagarde, the new President of the European Central Bank (ECB) gave her first policy speech yesterday in Frankfurt. It was, as could be anticipated, an upbeat, mainly rhetorical, speech on the broad direction of things to come.

Broadly speaking, she talked of interest rates remaining very low for maybe years ahead, as long as inflation remains weak and whilst growth remains below the bloc’s overall potential.

She also emphasised focusing on domestic demand as a way to defend against external changes and urged governments to direct monetary policy and investment to this end.

An interesting quote concerning the current global situation (which I interpret as meaning Trumpism):

"“Uncertainty abounds and conventional wisdom is being challenged, in politics, in diplomacy and in economics. And, unavoidably, this calls on Europe to consider its place in the world and reset its ambitions”.

With the combination of new winds in the EU and a forthcoming new government in the UK, I am thinking this is perhaps a good time to begin watching this pair more closely.

The pair had been in a steady decline since the summer, driven mainly by optimism for the pound and a Brexit solution. But that has levelled out in recent weeks.

Yesterday's speech by the new ECB President gave a slight boost to the pair but it still finished the week off its daily highs, slightly above the previous week's close, but marginally below the middle of the previous week's range.

I think the bias is still downwards for the pair and particularly if we see increasing support for the Conservatives in the not-so-far-away UK elections! But I am watching this pair on higher TFs and ignoring the intraday noise. Noise which for day traders are trade potentials.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2019, 08:22:33 AM by Emerson »