Author Topic: The 3 Ducks Trading System  (Read 1855 times)

Kim

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2019, 07:54:40 PM »
How did you get on with the videos?
Are you still keen on this method?
Or do you have any reservations or unresolved questions relating to it as a strategy?

The videos are super simple to follow.  I'm starting to practice on demo and will see how I get on. Im not in a rush to trade live, still got tons to learn.  I think I'll only practice on the main pairs as thats probably what I will do when I go live.
Im actually quite excited about it, so can only imagine how it will feel when I use real money.

Kim

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2019, 08:00:24 AM »
Good morning. I finished the videos but havenít opened any trades yet. I hope to get organised this weekend and start demo trades on Monday. 😀

Kim

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #32 on: November 22, 2019, 08:45:04 AM »
Good morning. I finished the videos but havenít opened any trades yet. I hope to get organised this weekend and start demo trades on Monday. 😀

Hello. I know that I have only been demo trading for a week but 4 out of 5 trades closed with a profit so that's promising.
I thought I might give myself until the end of January on demo to get Brexit out of the way, but now I've decided to carry on demo trading until I am absolutely certain that I am ready. I haven't set myself any targets (don't know if that's good or bad,open to advice) I dont think that is something I would do when I do go live.

Kaitsu

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #33 on: November 22, 2019, 09:11:19 AM »
Good morning. I finished the videos but havenít opened any trades yet. I hope to get organised this weekend and start demo trades on Monday. 😀

Hello. I know that I have only been demo trading for a week but 4 out of 5 trades closed with a profit so that's promising.
I thought I might give myself until the end of January on demo to get Brexit out of the way, but now I've decided to carry on demo trading until I am absolutely certain that I am ready. I haven't set myself any targets (don't know if that's good or bad,open to advice) I dont think that is something I would do when I do go live.
Hi Kim,

Well done on a high winning rate!  :D

As I am sure you are already aware, the win percentage is not, alone, sufficient to lead to consistent profitability. For example, 4 wins of 5 pips and 1 loss of 20 pips would not be very rewarding!  ;D

So I suggest that you also concentrate on your TL/SL ratios in your risk management and your overall open exposure v. your account equity in your money management. (I am sure you are already doing this!).

Personally, I don't find any value in setting targets because our net result is more often a function of market opportunities than our own expertise. I find greater value in just analysing each trade in hindsight and observing what might have gone wrong and right.

Observations of the 60 SMA on the 4H and 1H charts are somewhat obvious, but how are you managing with the short term TF? Are you using 5m or 15m? Only the 60SMA or other add-ons or PA features? This, I think, is the area where the rubber finally hits the road and we need to be sharp, precise and disciplined with entries and exits.   
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Caesar

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #34 on: December 08, 2019, 09:03:17 PM »
This tweet from Captain Currency shows his performance last 3 months (Sept-Nov)
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Kaitsu

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #35 on: December 09, 2019, 10:19:04 AM »
A 93% win rate from 15 trades = 14 wins and 1 loss?

So that is 14 x 15.46 pips Ė 1 x 11.36 pips = 205.08 pips over 3 months?

I.e. 68.36 pips per month?

One needs some big positions to make this worthwhile?

Or am I reading this wrong?
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Caesar

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #36 on: December 09, 2019, 01:33:48 PM »
I've never asked the Captain what lot size he trades but agree, yes it would have to be on the  large size to make big money.
However,  a 5.7% return per quarter equates to roughly 22% per annum and thats not to be sniffed at.
 3 ducks is a trend-based system  and the markets have been all over the place this year, that possibly explains the low number of trades opened.
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Kaitsu

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #37 on: December 09, 2019, 03:25:10 PM »
However,  a 5.7% return per quarter equates to roughly 22% per annum and thats not to be sniffed at.
 3 ducks is a trend-based system  and the markets have been all over the place this year, that possibly explains the low number of trades opened.

No, not to be sniffed at - but it is just a question of 22% of what! If a Newbie's starting balance is only USD100, then  ???.........and that is with a whopping 93% win rate!

But the other thing that would grind me if I were to use this method is the practicalities of it. I mean, one trade per week? And this is based on the 5 min duck entry signal? Who can watch a 5 min chart constantly, and so carefully, all week in order not to miss the one trade for an average 11.36 pips?
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kim

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #38 on: December 16, 2019, 08:22:58 AM »
Hi everyone!
Im up to 12 winning trades and 3 losses so still a good win rate. Pips won or lost are about the same as I still tend to panic when a winning trade looks like it is reversing so I close it.
I follow what has been said in there not being a huge amount of possible trades but I am only looking at the most popular pairs so I'm not spending much time on screen, probably an hour a day at most.
I might stop trading now until the New Year

Kaitsu

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #39 on: December 16, 2019, 03:21:01 PM »
Im up to 12 winning trades and 3 losses so still a good win rate. Pips won or lost are about the same
That is a very good result. Congratulations! :)
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kim

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #40 on: January 18, 2020, 01:47:34 PM »
Hiya,
I took a buy on gbpusd yesterday and am thinking it might have been a mistake,  the uk chancellor has said today that Britain will not be following eu rules after Brexit and I think the pound will fall on Monday now.
:(

Kaitsu

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #41 on: January 18, 2020, 03:38:34 PM »
Just popped in to say that one member of our small trader group sent this around a few weeks back. I remember it because I was surprised to hear it, but, given the source,  I have no reason to doubt that it is authentic:

"Greetings Duck Hunters,

An update (I think one is well overdue), going forward into 2020 I unfortunately wonít be trading with The 3 Ducks.

The last 2 years have shown back-to-back negative returns in my trading account and the Ducks are struggling big time in the current market climate along with other breakout / trend trading type of strats.

The market has well and truly kicked the stuffing out of me (financially and mentally) for the last few years so Iím now going to take it handy and take some timeout.

I wish you all the best for 2020 and hopefully your luck has been better than mine!

Andy
Captain Currency"


I don't actually trade this method personally so I can't comment on it, but markets have been a bit rangey and erratic, so maybe...................... but for the last 2 years? Anyway, just thought I'd let you know. make of it what you will!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

eddieb

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #42 on: January 19, 2020, 08:53:37 PM »
Hi Emerson.
That post of yours explains another post I had seen on another forum that was mocking Andy for not being able to make money himself.
The timing of his losses might be down to the irrationality of the markets post- Brexit referendum and Trumps trade wars with all and sundry.

Kim, hopefully you are just on demo still. I can see sterling pairs suffering tomorrow.  As well as Javids comments,  last weeks economic data showed a 0.3% fall in gdp in November and a 0.6% fall in retail sales in  December, so I would say the likelihood of a rates cut on 30th January has increased.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Kaitsu

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #43 on: January 20, 2020, 09:14:07 AM »
That post of yours explains another post I had seen on another forum that was mocking Andy for not being able to make money himself.
That is the sad thing about (other) forums and why I dont generally like them. Whilst it is right and just to challenge postings, it is not right to "mock" others. It is incredibly negative for both the recipient and others who read such stuff. We are all doing the same thing, trying to set the sails and navigate against all kinds of unexpected storms and hazards, to arrive at the same objective. Mocking is like putting sand in other people's fuel tanks.  :-[
 
The timing of his losses might be down to the irrationality of the markets post- Brexit referendum and Trumps trade wars with all and sundry.

Yes, I agree. And that is why I thought to reply here. I fully believe in the concept of multi-time frame analysis, but something is clearly not working currently with the 4H/1H/5m Ducks.

My suggestion would be a combination of two approaches:

1) firstly to migrate to a higher TF combination, using the same method on each (I don't mean the Ducks 60SMA. Use whatever set up one prefers). I would suggest the Daily/4H combination for the trend direction plus the 1H TF for timing entries. Targets and stops can be set using whatever criteria one normally applies. This way, there is the same approach as the Ducks logic but with longer term, more reliable, trend identification and more likelihood of a follow-though on the IH chart.

2) use a form of Strong/Weak analysis to select currency pairs most likely to be trending. There are many such SW methods, but one very simply manual system, which has been around for many years, tracks the daily close with the last value of the day for the 4H SMA. This has been on several forums apparently, but is easy to update oneself on a simple Excel type spreadsheet without needing any external input from a forum site (I do a similar analysis with a more limited range of pairs, but am now currently expanding it to include the JPY, AUD, NZD since these seem to be behaving more like "normal" pairs nowadays compared with the western currencies. But there are also many automated SW programs around as well, so one needs to be careful and selective if one goes this route.

So, in general, identify and select pairs most likely to be trending and apply a consistent method to multiple TFs. Same concept as the Ducks, but different!  ;)   
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kim

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Re: The 3 Ducks Trading System
« Reply #44 on: January 24, 2020, 05:21:58 PM »
Hiya. Itís a real shame about captain currency and it makes me kind of discouraged to keep with his system. I think Iíll keep trying it on demo for now but there havenít been many clear chances to trade. Iíll also keep studying fx in general to see what I can learn