Author Topic: S&P500  (Read 22720 times)

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #345 on: July 22, 2021, 08:19:59 AM »
Having continued the slow grind higher yesterday, especially towards the close, we have made no changes overnight.

As far as I can establish there are no major events today except the ECB rate decision and statements, which is not likely to impact the US stock markets especially. There are a number of more minor US releases later which will give some ripples.

But I have no clear signals again. And I think there is an important lesson here. Whenever we develop our trading strategies they will always include entry and exit set-ups but unless we are trading an entirely mechanical system there is also a strong need to evaluate which signals are worth acting on and when it is wise to step aside. Not all potential trades are good trades and recognising what constitutes a Grade A set-up is crucial to achieving consistency and building confidence in one's trading.

Being careful and confident in one's choice of set-ups is as important as choosing a position size that one is comfortable with. If you are not confident in your entry and uncomfortable with your exposure then you are hardly likely to give the trade its space to work itself out. And hardly likely to enjoy it either!

So I am currently not anticipating anything today as I have no potential signal build-ups on the horizon. but, who knows what the afternoon might bring :)
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #346 on: July 22, 2021, 05:38:56 PM »
So I am currently not anticipating anything today as I have no potential signal build-ups on the horizon. but, who knows what the afternoon might bring
Well we have not seen anything very dramatic today at all! A very tight range.

But we got a sell signal an hour ago which so far has dropped 85 pips but I closed it with +60 pips simply because there is no strong directional activity today and it could reverse at any time - just taking something off the table, basically.

But another plus day and the summer strategy seems to be doing ok.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #347 on: July 22, 2021, 07:35:57 PM »
As suspected, the down move quickly fizzled out and we started a new drift upwards. Done for the day, just the one trade.

These kind of trades can be very irritating. It is clear from the context that the chances of a good follow-through are low but it is impossible to gauge where it will fade. As it happens, it ended just 15 pips short of the normal target of 100 pips and reversed to give a stop signal at what would have been -30 pips. So closing out prematurely at +60 pips was ok - this time! But this kind of trade destroys the concept of fixed targets and encourages random discretion instead. Which is not a good a thing at all......
« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 07:40:53 PM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #348 on: July 23, 2021, 08:25:05 AM »
Had a buy signal one hour before the close that I chose to ignore, but would have produced another system win o/n.

We are at the end of the third successive week within the same basic range, but currently towards the top end of that range. Will we finish on new highs tonight? I think that is quite possible......
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #349 on: July 23, 2021, 05:45:41 PM »
Will we finish on new highs tonight? I think that is quite possible......
It has been a great day! A stead climb and a break through the target level of 4400 :)

A lovely end to the week and start to the weekend. :)
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #350 on: July 26, 2021, 07:48:10 AM »
We reached am impressive high of 4416 last Friday before fading slightly into the close. The Far East this Monday morning took it back to test the 4400 level from above and reached 4395.

I have no intention to trade during the London session and am waiting for the US before taking any new day trades. Currently, my 1H chart is neutral and I want to see an hourly close back into positive territory before entering.

We are in the last trading week in July. Another month evaporated in the summer heatwaves.

My main concern throughout the month has been for our dog. A Shetland sheepdog has a lot of hair and gets really hot from even the slightest exertion. Dogs do not sweat like humans and can suffer from the heat very quickly. She cannot be left in the car even for a few minutes and always has to have fresh water nearby. Fortunately, it is still relatively cool in the forests and more comfortable now that the early summer gnats have all reached the end of the natural cycle!!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #351 on: July 26, 2021, 02:06:07 PM »
Currently, my 1H chart is neutral and I want to see an hourly close back into positive territory before entering.

Still waiting.....

No real direction showing yet, so we might see a possible dip before a buy signal appears.

It is so important not to pre-empt signals on a systematic trading method. If one is, for example, looking to buy then it is tempting to buy on a price dip but there is always the risk that the dip continues. Sometimes, what looked like a good buy level at the time suddenly looks like it was left high and dry as the tide goes even further out - and we are left feeling grateful if the price just returns to where we got in so we can strike it at b/e......only to then see price rise further as we first anticipated, but without us!

It is important to get the direction right - but it is a lot more important to get the entry level right!  (and getting the exit level right is quite another story!!!)
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #352 on: July 26, 2021, 03:32:54 PM »
Well that was one of the quickest 100 pips I've ever made! Just after my last post the next hourly completed a buy signal and off it went, In at 4405 and out at 4415. As per print (I don't ever show my position size.)
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #353 on: July 26, 2021, 06:51:13 PM »
We are holding and ranging around these 4415-22 levels and I am done for today. Tomorrow is a day off elsewhere and the rest of the week with the last of the summer visitors so I don't know how much I can follow the signals this week. But that brings us to the end of the month and the end of my summer trading strategy. So I will be planning something a little different for August onwards.

During July there were 15 strong signals so far and only one loss for -30 pips. I am happy with that. June was fairly similar.

So, we continue on Wednesday, possibly!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #354 on: July 29, 2021, 10:11:12 AM »
Seems I chose a good week to be off the market (more or less). There is no overall direction and a fairly tight range. The 15 min chart has given some good brief moves - if one is patient enough to sit and wait for them! I have only made a few sporadic trades over these last few days and will probably continue the same style until the weekend.....
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #355 on: August 04, 2021, 06:54:29 AM »
Aug has started with the same market characteristics as July, oscillating around the 4400 level. Short term trading off the hourly chart and only in the US session has produced 3% gain already. So I am continuing with the same approach for now.

NFP is looming nearer and that may give us a kick-start one way or the other, but otherwise there is little from the fundamental approach to apply to hourly trading. This type of short-term trading is based on just judging the sentiment, jumping on the start of a move in the same direction and then just relying on sufficient momentum to push price to a suitably near target level. The reasons behind the moves are quite irrelevant really when the price often just returns to its earlier levels - even on the next 1-2 candles.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2021, 10:06:03 AM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #356 on: August 05, 2021, 02:38:46 PM »
We seem to be in a very quiet range as we approach tomorrow's NFP release, which could have an even bigger impact on the market than usual. The stand-off between the strength and stamina of the recovery boom and the increasing lockdown restrictions globally, due to the expanding spread of the COVID delta variant, is creating a lot of uncertainty.

Have we reached the stage where the scale of the vaccination programs and the growing herd immunity is turning us from trying to defeat COVID to learning to live with it? Although the gross number of cases is still mounting, the number of hospitalisations and deaths is reducing. How long can governments retain restrictions on their economic progress and endanger employment levels?

So I am not expecting any major moves ahead of the release and am only looking for my basic pips today.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #357 on: August 06, 2021, 07:56:52 AM »
Only a small range again yesterday and overnight - as anticipated ahead of the NFP release today - But there is an interesting situation here.

The attached chart is a 4H chart for the SP500 and it shows how we have traded a range since about 23.7. We have always faltered just short of the 4430 level. However, here we are only hours before the big release and we are pressing right up against that ceiling.

I see this as a strong expectation of a positive release today, which means we should get a rather explosive move in either direction. If the data confirms this positive expectation then it will pull in more investors/traders as we break this top level. On the other hand, disappointing data may trigger a big sell-off as participants reverse their expectation.....
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #358 on: August 06, 2021, 07:14:53 PM »
Well we did manage something of a daily range today but nothing very decisive and I can imagine that many traders got burned as we ricocheted up and down. But the overall result is a continued upward move.

I have spent most of today changing to a new PC and internet connection and wasn't really very confident, from what I was seeing in the price movements, to take any position in case I lost my connection. So I have done nothing today!  :-\

But Monday is another week starting and one certain thing about trading is that there is always another move on its way!  ;D
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #359 on: August 09, 2021, 07:26:04 AM »
But Monday is another week starting and one certain thing about trading is that there is always another move on its way! 
Hmmm, but the next move is not very clear yet!

Friday NFP has turned out to be wet firework, with just a few puffs and sparks but no shift to another realm. Although we climbed a little on the day we are now, Monday morning, back at the same levels as Friday morning.

Although the daily look is still flat/positive the shorter end (4H/1H) is looking more flat/negative. Interestingly, we have dropped back to the top of that flat zone shown in the (4H) chart that I posted a few posts back.

I wouldn't be surprised to see us move further down into that range, especially in early US trading, but if we hold and close above it today then that could set the scene for this week....
« Last Edit: August 09, 2021, 07:27:49 AM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......