Author Topic: S&P500  (Read 7601 times)

eddieb

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 447
  • Likes: 136
  • Gender: Male
Re: S&P500
« Reply #210 on: October 07, 2020, 10:40:59 AM »
Are you in WTI at all? Its yoyo-ing around this past few weeks. Some would say that creates opportunities, others would say its too unpredictable to take a risk on.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Kaitsu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 581
  • Likes: 212
Re: S&P500
« Reply #211 on: October 07, 2020, 11:53:17 AM »
Are you in WTI at all? Its yoyo-ing around this past few weeks. Some would say that creates opportunities, others would say its too unpredictable to take a risk on.

I am not trading oil, although I do watch it. As you say, it seems devoid of any life of its own between a cap and a floor.

The cap on oil prices comes from the depressed state of global economic activity combined with an overall excess of supply - but what a vague level to put a value to!

The floor is the fact that current low prices are below the breakeven price for many producer companies and nations. Which means they any further sustained falls would result in taps being turned off and supply reduction to support the price. But where that floor level comes in is hard to define!

The net result is that there are better and more definable moves in other markets right now and SP500 is one of them - but takes up a lot of time and thought!

I am not looking at currencies at all right now. I find them difficult to predict and rather erratic with the US election antics and Brexit trade negotiations coming to a head.

For me, the SP500 is the only game in town right now - and it is certainly enough! ..Especially with our young lady coming up to 9 months already:

Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

eddieb

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 447
  • Likes: 136
  • Gender: Male
Re: S&P500
« Reply #212 on: October 07, 2020, 05:29:19 PM »
Nice healthy start today for the SP, up 1.5%. Likewise the Dow and  Nasdaq. Looks like Trumps tweet yesterday has been brushed aside and things are on the up again.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Kaitsu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 581
  • Likes: 212
Re: S&P500
« Reply #213 on: October 07, 2020, 05:41:05 PM »
Nice healthy start today for the SP, up 1.5%. Likewise the Dow and  Nasdaq. Looks like Trumps tweet yesterday has been brushed aside and things are on the up again.

Yes, now that we have climbed back above last week's high we can say this is yet another example of "buy those dips".  I collected my standard 150 pips along the way (more or less the same 150 pips collected on the way down yesterday!!)!  8)

SP500 is trading quite technically nowadays, which is nice. This hourly chart shows the touches along both the 4-hour and 1-hour SMA's and shows the regular dips that have (so far) been worth buying into.

I know these charts never get more than 2 views, but I post it anyway!  ;D

Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

eddieb

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 447
  • Likes: 136
  • Gender: Male
Re: S&P500
« Reply #214 on: October 07, 2020, 05:50:27 PM »
Thats a tidy trade, quick in and out.
Seems  like it's creeping up slowly bit by bit, nothing wrong with that as it offers plenty of opportunities.
I'm surprised more retail traders don't trade indexes, I find them more stable than forex pairs. I suppose forex just gets a lot more hype.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Kaitsu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 581
  • Likes: 212
Re: S&P500
« Reply #215 on: October 07, 2020, 06:48:53 PM »
I'm surprised more retail traders don't trade indexes, I find them more stable than forex pairs.
So do I. And when a move starts it continues much further than the normal currency moves in the short term. But I guess one problem is the potential size of these moves!

As a very rough rule-of-thumb I think of 20 pips on a currency pair equating with about 200 pips on SP500. And since the pip size is roughly the same on both that means 10x the risk factor with SP500 - roughly! But the upside is that the profit potential is more than plenty for almost any trader!

There are other indexes that don't witness such big swings but some are only open for part of the day and others don't seem to trade so well technically - at least in the way that I analyse my charts! :)

I guess you, @eddieb, mainly look at FTSE?
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

eddieb

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 447
  • Likes: 136
  • Gender: Male
Re: S&P500
« Reply #216 on: October 07, 2020, 07:00:33 PM »
I guess you, @eddieb, mainly look at FTSE?
Actually, no. I get upset enough watching my FTSE shares tumbling without playing the index as well.
Dax is my preferred index.  It tends to "be its own man" by which I mean its less influenced by UK or US and more concerned with the German economy. It seems to shrug off outside factors and, as the powerhouse of Europe, has a good, solid, reliable marketplace for most of its exports. Where German companies do export outside Europe, they generally do so with better products than the nations they sell into so they have good brand loyalty, better margins, and their average client is more affluent.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Kaitsu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 581
  • Likes: 212
Re: S&P500
« Reply #217 on: October 07, 2020, 07:17:03 PM »
Dax is my preferred index.  It tends to "be its own man" by which I mean its less influenced by UK or US and more concerned with the German economy. It seems to shrug off outside factors and, as the powerhouse of Europe, has a good, solid, reliable marketplace for most of its exports. Where German companies do export outside Europe, they generally do so with better products than the nations they sell into so they have good brand loyalty, better margins, and their average client is more affluent.
Excellent appraisal @eddieb! :D
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

eddieb

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 447
  • Likes: 136
  • Gender: Male
Re: S&P500
« Reply #218 on: October 08, 2020, 07:48:45 AM »
Another day, another tweet.
S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished yesterday in the green by some 1.5% on renewed hopes for stimulus after Trump rowed back on comments from just a day earlier and said he was in favour of targeted coronavirus aid.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

eddieb

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 447
  • Likes: 136
  • Gender: Male
Re: S&P500
« Reply #219 on: October 09, 2020, 11:08:18 AM »
Seems that US markets in particular are starting to factor in Democrat candidate Joe Biden winning the White House and adjusting their thinking as to what that means for additional stimulus packages to help the economy.

Additionally, talks have resumed between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over coronavirus aid plans, just two days after President Donald Trump abruptly ended them, suggesting the Republicans feel they have lost this diplomatic battle.

Hopes that a Democrat presidency would likely lead to a normalisation of relationships with the USA's trading partners, and especially China, are also viewed in a positive light.

With 3 weeks to go until the election, everything is being considered and with every day that passes a Trump victory looks less likely, although you never know.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Kaitsu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 581
  • Likes: 212
Re: S&P500
« Reply #220 on: October 16, 2020, 07:26:42 PM »
The SP500 index seems to be ending the week with little change. The week's range has been around 1000 pips but we are currrently only some 200 pips up on last Friday's close.

This market continues to favour short term trading with targets in the 100 - 300 pip range.

But it is also a market that is really testing the limits of a trader's patience while waiting for the set-ups to form. Today was a good example with a 6-hour wait before entering.

Patience and discipline, discipline and patience. They go hand in hand and each improves the other. Without them, a short term trader is a ship without its rudder just bowling along wherever the wind blows.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 581
  • Likes: 212
Re: S&P500
« Reply #221 on: October 17, 2020, 07:51:33 AM »
A sell-off into the close yesterday /friday), meant the SP500 closed almost unchanged on the week, even slightly lower than where it began.

The week was a poor performance for this index. Looking at the attached hourly chart we can see that it started the week on Monday with a solid follow-through to the upside and remained above the previous week's high. But although both Tuesday and Wednesday remained above the previous week high, they failed to make new highs, leaving a trail on consecutively lower highs.

Thursday was a testing day in which we actually broke down through that weekly high and dropped about 300 pips down to the 200-period SMA (producing a nice +250 pip trade). But we held that line and then, as usual with dips nowadays, we bounced off and back up to that Weekly high line and even closed above it.

I was anticipating an upside follow-through on Friday, but had to wait all day, while it just trickled along that weekly line, until the US was waking up before it came - and then it lasted barely an hour after that (producing a nice +175 pip trade). The rest of Friday was just a lifeless 4 hours and then a significant drop in the last hours back down to that same 200 SMA, to end up overall slightly down on the week.

It is a hard call what to expect next week. The charts remain positive to neutral but this week's poor performance with its inability to make new highs in spite of remaining in positive territory does not bode well. This week saw a subtle short-term change from just buying dips to trading both short and long. I suspect this will continue into next week.

We are certainly not yet seeing that major October sell-off as described in that Forbes article posted earlier, in fact we are significantly higher at present - but we are only half way through the month so far......

The US election is a tight race, Brexit trade negotiations are producing nothing but a mutual sizing-up, Covid-19 is ripping Europe and the US apart, economic data is fairly meaningless in the current environment - but the SP500 holds relatively firm.

So, for me at least, the only game in town is to read the charts and just let them tell me what the majority is doing and do the same - but just jumping on and off the tram and bumming parts of the ride and collecting some change along the way......
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 08:02:30 AM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

eddieb

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 447
  • Likes: 136
  • Gender: Male
Re: S&P500
« Reply #222 on: October 17, 2020, 08:53:01 AM »
Markets seem to be leaning towards a Biden presidency, although even then there are 2 different scenarios.
If the Democrats get a clean sweep, winning Congress and the House of Representatives as well, then a larger stimulus package is expected. Increases in corporation tax would be expected to be offset by a faster growing economy, and policy expectations would be clearer.
If they don't win all 3, Republicans can block policies making expectations harder to predict. A stimulus package is likely to be a compromise, leading to a slower recovery.
How either scenario affects Big Tech is anyone's guess. A recent report for the Democrats recommends either breaking up or policing them much more than at present, although its more likely Biden would rather maximise tax collection from them. A Trump win could be disastrous for Big Tech, as there is a likelihood he would want revenge for those who have fact-checked or removed posts from him and his supporters.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Kaitsu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 581
  • Likes: 212
Re: S&P500
« Reply #223 on: October 17, 2020, 05:11:42 PM »
Markets seem to be leaning towards a Biden presidency, although even then there are 2 different scenarios.
If the Democrats get a clean sweep, winning Congress and the House of Representatives as well, then a larger stimulus package is expected. Increases in corporation tax would be expected to be offset by a faster growing economy, and policy expectations would be clearer.
If they don't win all 3, Republicans can block policies making expectations harder to predict. A stimulus package is likely to be a compromise, leading to a slower recovery.
How either scenario affects Big Tech is anyone's guess. A recent report for the Democrats recommends either breaking up or policing them much more than at present, although its more likely Biden would rather maximise tax collection from them. A Trump win could be disastrous for Big Tech, as there is a likelihood he would want revenge for those who have fact-checked or removed posts from him and his supporters.
Yes, that just shows how many scenarios are around, and any of them are entirely possible! Not much chance of a viable prediction on direction based on fundamentals and politics right now!  :D
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 581
  • Likes: 212
Re: S&P500
« Reply #224 on: October 19, 2020, 07:55:49 AM »
We opened this week pretty much where we left it last Friday in a fairly neutral state, and have drifted up to an even more neutral state! :)

As we can see from the hourly chart below, in these early hours of European time, we are right on the midpoint pivot of last week's range and wedged between the descending line of last week's progressively lower highs and the ascending hourly 200-period SMA, which we successively bounced up from on Thursday and Friday.

The attached daily chart also shows a rather stalled market. We fully recovered from the Coronavirus collapse, reaching a peak in early September. But since then we have failed on the subsequent rally to exceed this point - at least, so far............

Is this neutrality a symptom of the political uncertainty of the US election outcome, combined with the economy uncertainty of the impact of COVID-19? Or is it just due to a temporary absence of new input factors to feed on? I suspect the latter. Markets are full of traders itching for a reason to trade and managers looking to adjust portfolios. So the one definite thing we can be sure of is that the market is not just going to sit here for the next two weeks or even until we get a vaccine....
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 07:57:50 AM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......