Author Topic: S&P500  (Read 25915 times)

PipMeHappy

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #390 on: October 15, 2021, 04:27:11 PM »
Thanks @Kaitsu

I closed my last trade today,making
it three winners  so far. 

It feels good but now this is where
questions start.

I was trying to buy-and-hold but
financing overnight trades is expensive
so now I am thinking I should aim  for
shorter objectives.

Whatever I end up doing, it will
lose money at some point, but
the main thing is what to  do
that is the least time-intensive.
I need to figure out a few things,
basically, to find a good rhythm
where I do not have to micromanage
and can winners run.


Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #391 on: October 15, 2021, 06:42:18 PM »
I closed my last trade today, making it three winners  so far.

Firstly, well-deserved congratulations! I doubt many start trading SP500 with a series of wins! :)

Whatever I end up doing, it will lose money at some point, but the main thing is what to  do that is the least time-intensive. I need to figure out a few things, basically, to find a good rhythm where I do not have to micromanage and can winners run.

Naturally, the only way to avoid o/n financing completely is to day trade. Personally, I haven't found the financing overly expensive, but then I very rarely hold a position for more than 2-3 days. It would be expensive to hold a position long term while the price doesn't actually move much! And there are the occasional dividend payments on long positions to help compensate (I don't really understand how that works but I am not complaining - but I should really study that some more.....)

One possibility might be to use the daily chart as a day-trade tool rather than just as an underlying trend checker. I have been looking at this more myself. It does appear feasible to look at the daily chart at EOD and decide on the likely move on the next day (perhaps with the aid of a short term chart). One can then set the trade using a market or limit order with a SL and TP for the next day. One can then either leave it as a "set and forget" trade or combine it with, say, a 4-hour or 8-hour chart strategy whereby one can "check in" on just a few occasions during the next day to monitor its development, and close it prematurely if that makes sense at the time.

Alternatively, you could also set the trade with just a stoploss (either fixed or trailing) and leave the target end open. That way, if your direction is right, you get the full benefit on  the occasional big moves but limited losses if your direction is wrong. An EOD trade can also include leaving the same trade open overnight for the following day - which would have worked rather well last night! In these cases the financing is not a problem since, by definition, the trade probably already has a good profit on it from the current day and the SL could even be at B/E or small profit. This also means trades are not (usually) left open over weekends or holidays so there is little open risk since the market is almost 24/5.

Naturally, this approach is difficult when there are important events on the following day so calendar-watching is critical. But, on the other hand, when there are important events or data, there is no reason why a trade shouldn't be entered after it occurs, depending on the outcome. In other words, like any other discretionary approach, the rules are not intended to blindly restrict or enforce trades, rather they are there to be respected, considered, and moulded to suit the circumstances.

 I have been trying this more and more myself and trying to integrate my current method into a synergetic relationship with the daily analysis. I decide what I think the next day will do based on EOD on the daily candle within my daily chart set-up. I then follow my hourly chart as normal but only enter when it is reflecting my daily expectation. If it doesn't give a signal, or reverses during the day then I am either without a trade or with a small gain or loss depending on what has preceded the reversal. But, as always, it is precisely the exit decision which is the bigger dilemma than the entry!!

I haven't been doing this long enough to say how it will work out long term, but it seems promising and can be designed to fit whatever time constraints one has during the working day.

Does this sound silly to you?  ;D

« Last Edit: October 15, 2021, 06:49:39 PM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Peterma

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #392 on: October 15, 2021, 06:51:04 PM »
Hi guys - just a wee thought on the S&P for short term.

Oft times the US10yr and the US2000 are reasonable indicators of risk in the short term - happened again today early in US for long entry..

The thinking obviously is to use the 2000 as a stock investor risk indicator especially at the open.

Peterma

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #393 on: October 15, 2021, 07:07:46 PM »
Lost my edit to above - cpl of hrs to close and the 10yr is thinking of heading further south - so s&p good chance to make new high - the 2000 has moved back to it's open as the session went on so if I was thinking about very short term before close of day and week then I'd go positive - will post at close.

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #394 on: October 15, 2021, 07:53:52 PM »
I also anticipated a strong close today after price holding well post- retail sales. I closed my first long today prior to the release but entered again a few hours ago. I just closed that one as well since we are approaching a price area that I consider could meet with resistance and - being a Friday - could see a lack of fresh buying ahead of the weekend. But this market seems to want to shrug off anything so maybe we will see a rally into the close tonight regardless! :)

I have been thinking about this almost fairy-tale optimism in stock markets, which seems undaunted even though there is a wealth of negative issues currently. One phenomenon that I have noticed during the COVID era is the increased marketing by banks and brokers of stock-based investment funds. The dramatic fall in interest rates has meant that the huge sums of latent savings and investment funds held by the public have been earning virtually nothing during this period. But these various investment funds, which have literally hundreds of different investment profiles have been showing increases of 20-35% or more.

In addition, some brokers are also offering cfd's for trading specific shares like Amazon, for example, and not just indices - e.g. this from one broker:

"Our Share CFD offering continues to expand! Highlighting September was the addition of key European shares. Now we are expanding our UK and US Shares offering with the addition of over 20 new stocks."

So we can envisage a huge transfer of funds going on continually from bank deposits to stock markets  - all of which is unidirectional, i.e. bullish. And on top of that leveraged funds via v'brokers into specific shares.

So we could conclude from this that there is a constant source of new funds looking for a new bed to lie in and is activated every time there is a dip regardless of any negative dynamics in the market. Stock markets are not so immune to cash flows as the forex market and this is all buying money not selling.

So are we creating an ever more inflated bubble here during the COVID era stoked by hungry funds chasing a better reward and a weary world looking for good news on the economic fronts?

Do the actual company facts live up to the expectations? Or are we poised for a disappointment and an eventual mad panic abandoning ship back to the safety of the bank deposit accounts?

Being a naturally cautious person by nature and by training, I only have about 30% of savings in such funds but I am seriously thinking of closing some of these down and banking the profits.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Peterma

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #395 on: October 15, 2021, 09:15:31 PM »
I went for the second long and then closed before the close - quite small profit but reasonably safe  - see how the 2000 gave the signal to get the hell out:




Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #396 on: October 16, 2021, 09:49:38 AM »
quite small profit but reasonably safe  - see how the 2000 gave the signal to get the hell out:
Always good when it is a profit! :) We can only take what the market offers....

I have not considered that relationship with the US2000 - will have to take a look at that!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Peterma

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #397 on: October 16, 2021, 08:58:59 PM »
Learned re small caps a few years back - they offer the highest reward/risk ratio  - think it was John Murphy who commented that the risky investor is always looking for the next MSFT.

Anyways something spooked the 2000 late Friday so will be interesting come Monday.


Peterma

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #399 on: October 19, 2021, 11:50:06 AM »
Nice to see alignment this morning - US2000 futures up, US10yr price down, UK10yr down, DE10yr down.

Peterma

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #400 on: October 20, 2021, 09:50:38 AM »
The risk on carried on throughout the day - only one etf red
:
https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker

Caesar

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #401 on: October 25, 2021, 07:11:01 PM »
Nice to see the thread continuing.

I agree, the Kicklighter video shows

a balanced view of the situation.

More earnings this week... Amazon on

Thursday and Facebook tonight,

if  I am not incorrect...

So far, the index is up...

See how it goes.

Hope you are enjoying a colourful

Finnish autumn, @Kaitsu

@PipMeHappy  did you have a nice break?

@Peterma  what are you trading atm?

Hail Caesar.
No, just a bit of rain

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #402 on: October 25, 2021, 07:31:40 PM »
Hello @Caesar, good to hear from you! :)

Actually, I was going to post here earlier today but only to say how uncharacteristically boring the SP500 has been these last few days. It is really quite strange to hit the all time highs reached a few months ago and then just freeze around there! Normally, one would expect either a break up through it and beyond or a bounce off it and a retracement. But we got neither, just a lethargic pause....

I am long again now and we have made some more ground on the upside today but the momentum (or total lack of!) is not very convincing at all  :-\ but I am going to stick with it and see where we go. Bit of a lean month so far!

The autumn splendour came and went and was very spectacular this year. Now we are into the dreary, dark, wet period up until the snows arrive! (we have already had the first falls but these always melt away). This week we change tyres for the studded winter ones and change the clocks at the weekend along with Halloween. Winter is around the corner............
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

PipMeHappy

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #403 on: October 25, 2021, 09:10:55 PM »
fresh from the news

PipMeHappy

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #404 on: October 25, 2021, 10:45:22 PM »
Good to hear from you, @Caesar
and yes, I had a break,travelled to the  Outer Hebrides,
it was nice, although it rained a lot (probably even more
than chez vous,right @Kaitsu ?).

Back to trading, I agree with @Peterma that
maybe the risk-on is...on, but I  also take
what @Kaitsu  mentioned seriously
because  this lack of progress from previous
highs,and the glacial pace of it, make me
(and not just me, it seems) a bit nervous.

However,I made a few good trades, and only
a small loss, thus far: this bodes well and
the generally trending instruments works
well for TA and entries using my chosen
indicators (Bollinger Bands and the CCI).

Fingers crossed!

PS: @Kaitsu  I would dearly love to see Finland one
day.