Author Topic: S&P500  (Read 23806 times)

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #360 on: August 09, 2021, 09:08:34 PM »
Not much to add here. The top edge of that recent range held pretty well and we have recovered and tested recent highs - but all with very little enthusiasm or conviction. Maybe it is still a holiday mood.

Took a short on EURUSD instead today for a change. Been a long time since I last traded this pair. Could get used to it again.......it is where I started! All things come round again, sooner or later.  ;)
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #361 on: August 10, 2021, 07:29:56 AM »
A classic short term trader's frustrating day, yesterday.

Got the direction right on SP500, but missed target by a few pips and got stopped out on a sharp down spike by a few pips from the low! Also got the direction right on EURUSD but didn't gain enough to compensate for the loss on SP500.

Net result: two right trades and a net loss on the day!

Maybe mainly due to a over-optimistic target and a sloppy stop level that was closer than it should have been.

OK so there are own reasons for the particular trade, but the market is in a general state of lethargy and not extending its moves in the "normal" manner.

This market feels "heavy". It has little impetus to go higher right now, it seems. Are we due for a correction to clear the table? Maybe, but it is not in the charts yet..... or are we just on holiday?

Worth being a little cautious here and not assume that stock markets always come right eventually if one is only long.....
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #362 on: August 10, 2021, 03:51:45 PM »
Worth the wait for a good signal. A positive signal and an immediate climb straight through the highs, where my target was. Recovered yesterday's losses and a nice bit more.

That's it for now for today's trading but interesting to see where we end up today.....
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #363 on: August 17, 2021, 07:05:27 PM »
Nice play to the downside today on SP500. It respected the horizontal levels and over 200 pips in the green from three trades.

"Retail sales dropped 1.1% in July, more than the 0.3% decline expected, paced by a fall in spending on autos, building materials, and non-store retailers." 
« Last Edit: August 17, 2021, 07:18:17 PM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #364 on: August 18, 2021, 09:21:03 AM »
SP500 recovered quite nicely from its initial drop in response to the retail sales data. But it did not finish sufficiently high to conclude that the bull run continues from here. The 4H chart is left with a bias to the downside.

So the direction today is impossible to define at this point. The calendar contains nothing dramatic until later in the day with the FOMC minutes. So I am anticipating a choppy but somewhat directionless day.

Dip-buying has been a prevalent feature all this year and this daily chart gives a good indication how things are evolving. The long term uptrend line is closing in from below up to current price levels and there is a broad support zone under the market that formed in July/early August. Whilst we remain above these points the bull is still alive, even if limping a bit from time to time.

COVID is still a major factor and the related death figures in the US are still high in spite of the massive vaccination roll-out.

All major economic data released at present is difficult to interpret because of the possible distortions from COVID effects. Are the levels of retail sales, inflation, job creation, etc temporarily affected by COVID or do they really reflect the true state of the underlying economy?

It is interesting to reflect on the fact that the lows reached during sell-offs like yesterday were actually record highs only a few days earlier.

Personally, I am anticipating a period of consolidation over the next few months, but this market is full of surprises and calling tops in the SP500 is about as accurate as those predicting the end of the world - but I guess one day even they will be able to say, "I told you so!"......
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #365 on: August 18, 2021, 02:42:21 PM »
A quiet start to the US session. It started with a slow follow-though on the downside bias, but only as far as those support areas. But enough for a first trade, giving 36+ pips down to the top of the support zone.

Looks like a quiet day ahead of the FOMC minutes. Personally, I haven't seen anything that would suggest the Fed would be changing its stance from the current "more of the same" any time soon so I doubt there are any surprises in store there.....

I don't have a strong inclination to get involved any more today - some days are just quiet and unreadable. On the other hand, there are some strong barriers below here: the broad support band, the 4H 200 SMA and the long-standing daily uptrend line, so any dips down towards these areas may be worth a buy with a reasonable stop distance.....
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #366 on: August 18, 2021, 07:50:54 PM »
The Fed minutes of their meeting on July 27-28 created some flurry in both directions but the market quickly ended up back where it was all day prior to the release.

The Fed is confident that the economy is still on track despite persistently high COVID infections and that employment levels will soon be at the point where pandemic support is no longer necessary. Although inflation is higher than the Fed target this is believed to be due to strong demand for products which are suffering from supply disruptions due to the pandemic and therefore temporary in nature.

The market still feels heavy with a distinct downside bias for now.

I was very pleased to see how the price respected the identified support areas as shown on this 15 min chart.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #367 on: August 18, 2021, 08:02:54 PM »
With respect to disruptions in global supply chains and their impact on inflationary pressures, this is an interesting extract from a "Market Watch" article:

"Ningbo-Zhousan, which overlooks the East China Sea some 200 kilometers south of Shanghai, is China’s second-busiest port, handling the equivalent of some 29 million 20-foot containers every year.

At the time of writing, it has more than 50 ships waiting to dock. This is because the Ningbo-Meishan terminal, which handles about one-fifth of the port’s total volumes, has been closed for a week after a member of staff tested positive for COVID. With still no word of a reopening, many more ships have diverted to alternative ports.

Unfortunately, this is the tip of the iceberg in shipping. China has eight of the 10 busiest ports in world, and they are running at well below normal capacity because of COVID restrictions. From Shanghai to Hong Kong to Xiamen, ships are in long queues to unload – and the diversions from Ningbo will be making this worse."


--------

This has driven the cost of shipping rates for containers through the roof in recent weeks. The cost of moving a 40-foot container from China to Europe is currently running at around $14,000, about 10 times what it would normally be.

Kind of puts it into perspective!
« Last Edit: August 18, 2021, 08:08:28 PM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #368 on: August 19, 2021, 07:25:28 AM »
The market still feels heavy with a distinct downside bias for now.

Later in the US session yesterday, we saw my "downward bias" turn into reality with a sudden drop in prices. I would have missed this fast move entirely if I hadn’t had the laptop open while watching TV last night! But managed to catch another good trade going short after it broke the first support band.

Again, it was pleasing from a technical point of view to see that my bottom edge of the longer support zone held almost to the pip – and we have been drifting along it thoughout this morning's session in the Far East. We are also on the 4H 200SMA mentioned in an earlier post and the long term uptrend line is now very close, too. All this in the "red zone" on the hourly chart attached. The week’s close tomorrow night will be significant as a sign of any major change in market sentiment.

It seems the main concern that has spooked the markets was signs in the Fed minutes that they may begin removing their stimulus activities in the next few months.  However, it is a sad thought that the entire rise in the SP500 this year would be based on the existence of Fed stimulus activities and one would expect that the removal of these activities would only occur if and when the underlying true economy was again steady on its feet. Afterall, no parent removes the safety wheels off their kids’ bikes until they can balance by themselves!

But as Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia, said: "The Fed minutes did nothing to dispel the thought that tapering will begin soon…..we are closer to the end than the middle of tapering, and people don’t know how to react to it."

I guess that is what we call sentiment!

There is a real risk that we could break lower here – but we have seen that before…trade what you see and not what you think you are going to see…….
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #369 on: August 19, 2021, 07:47:57 AM »
And here is the daily chart showing the uptrend and the dangerous point we are at right now. A break and close below the trend line  (especially if we close below it tomorrow at the week's close) could start to look rather ominous!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #370 on: August 20, 2021, 07:09:50 AM »
Yesterday was a real Battle of the Bulls and the Bears. Where we end up tonight, the Friday/week's close, will be quite indicative of which camp is dominant.....I remain skeptical of the chances of an immediate strong continuation of the bull run and anticipate ranging at best and maybe even a healthy corrective move to the downside to establish where the true value lies....

Have a great weekend.....

Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #371 on: August 27, 2021, 04:41:06 PM »
There hasn't really been much to talk about here all week. The SP500 price has pretty much hugged the highs from last week all week long. But we appeared to get a break just a while ago on news from the Fed symposium.

I bought it, it went up.....and now frozen! So, being a Friday evening, I closed out for 45 pips and will call it a day. I don't want to keep anything open over the weekend in case of some comment fall outs.

So it has been a real pip-scraper of a week. A few pips on EU and a few more on EG, a handful of pips here and there on oil and now these from SP500.

I've been watching BTCUSD a bit lately and it also rose today, but I am not active on it yet and watched from the sidelines - for now!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #372 on: August 31, 2021, 07:11:32 PM »
For a market that doesn't stand still for long this has been a rather tame start to the week. The world is a rather mixed place for the US right now, the aftermath of the Afghanistan departure, the spread of COVID delta, a month end, NFP on Friday and a US holiday after the weekend.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Peterma

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #373 on: October 01, 2021, 07:00:43 PM »
Aye it's been a difficult month for risk, saw a quote earlier in the week "what's the word in Chinese for Lehmans?  - answer Evergrande.

This thought maybe sums up the nervousness in the market right now, currently they are using the 30day grace period on coupon payments (i.e. we have no money so give us 30 days) but they did make an agreed 10% payment yesterday on home investors.

Chinese gov making cash available this past week (not to Evergrande as yet) but then again they often do pre this coming week's holiday.

Everything that I use as indicators on the S&P are topsy turvy except for the 2000 - calling a little buy into the close for US stocks.

Peterma

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #374 on: October 01, 2021, 08:33:52 PM »
Here's a wee thought going into the weekend - so i take a buy on S&P based perhaps on nothing more than the fact that there was no bad news, the index was down most of the week and guys were dip buying last day.

The 2000 was leading as it often does in such scenarios yet the 10yr refused to agree (except grudgingly in the last few minutes) - so take the profit and close or keep it open?.

Weekends have the potential of changing risk but perhaps there is sense in trying to foresee the chances of risk change  - is there anything bubbling so to speak - if not then set a stop to b/e and keep it open.

imo - let's see come Monday.

Edit: 2000 led, so 2nd thought is take the profit - Monday is a new day
 
« Last Edit: October 01, 2021, 08:36:41 PM by Peterma »