Author Topic: S&P500  (Read 25916 times)

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #330 on: July 14, 2021, 08:42:47 AM »
We have indeed seen a little selling overnight as anticipated, but nothing significant. It would seem that the higher than expected inflation data has spooked the market a little. Even the first excellent 2nd quarter results from J P Morgan and Goldman Sachs didn't seem to light any fires.

However, even if the inflation spectre is the cause, it is maybe not such a negative since the Federal Reserve is unlikely to react too soon or by too much anyway. But we might just see a more ranging than trending market in the near term.

There was also some negative Far East news with signs that the China economy may be slowing, but I am not going into fundamentals here beyond the markers that I want to remember myself!  ;D

So I am continuing the same strategy except that I am extending the TL out from 50-80 pips to 80-100 pips. Nearly every trade so far this month would have reached 100 pips and more if I had left them open, so there is little point in only looking for such a modest amount.   
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #331 on: July 14, 2021, 04:36:50 PM »
The markets been steadily climbing pretty much all day. But I was waiting for the US markets. The signal came early and the 100 pips target was hit in the very next hourly candle. That is it for today, a quick day's work!

The essence of this approach (and indeed all of my trading) is the momentum driving a move. I try to identify a new move and get in early and get carried along with the thrust behind the move as new positions come in and existing opposite positions get closed out. That part is not so difficult. The real problem is knowing when the momentum is fading. And that is why I prefer a fixed target in pips. The target is selected according to the typical size of a move on the timeframe being used combined with a general subjective assessment of the current nature market in general.

Once the summer season ends and the visitors have returned home, then I intend splitting the position size with half of it on a wider target+trailing stop whilst the rest keeps on churning this bread-and-butter fixed target earnings.

This was today's signal candle (without the indicators) on the one-hour TF which was already confirmed on the 15m chart.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #332 on: July 14, 2021, 10:41:22 PM »
Ņo further signals today and only the one trade. Price just wiggling around aimlessly
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #333 on: July 15, 2021, 08:04:51 AM »
Overnight was very quiet and no change in price levels. This will probably continue throughout today due to Fed Chairman Powell giving his testimony in Washington today:

"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration."


May well be a sidelined day today for me, but I will look at it again after the testimony....
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #334 on: July 15, 2021, 07:57:25 PM »
It has remained a quiet session for most of the day. We got a sell signal a few hours ago which hit the 100 pip target. It continued down to the 4341 level and is now turning back up again. So, again, it is a one-trade day but at least these are giving bigger pip value than earlier days.

I'll talk more about the events behind the moves in the morning once all the commentaries are in! :D

But all-in-all, a(nother) rather indecisive day.

« Last Edit: July 15, 2021, 08:01:29 PM by Kaitsu »
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #335 on: July 16, 2021, 08:18:45 AM »
Well here we are this Friday morning with prices back at the same level that it has rotated around all week. We closed last Friday around 4368, reached a mid-week high of 4393 and yesterday a low for the week at 4341 - and now we are back to 4360.

Which means there is little to say right now. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments added little to their current view that inflation increases are a transitory issue and that the economy is not yet strong enough to justify any change in current policies. But there were some hints that inflationary pressures could continue for longer than anticipated  due to reasons such as supply pressures.

Other major countries like the UK and Canada are taking a more hawkish stand on inflationary pressures so there is some digression here.

Today is the release of the US Retail Sales data for June, which is another of the major data sources currently under the spotlight and so, again, we are not likely to see much action prior to its release.

So we shall return after the release to see how we might finish on the week and if there is a trade to be made.....
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #336 on: July 16, 2021, 03:42:32 PM »
Retail sales was not only higher than expected but was also a small gain compared with the expected small reduction. But we have also seen a lower than expected consumer sentiment index.

On balance we seem to be drifting off a bit here. But the charts are quite neutral and we may just as easily see a pick-up like we saw yesterday as a further decline into the weekend.

I have no trade here at present with another 5 hours of trading to go before the weekend after a rather directionless week in total.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #337 on: July 17, 2021, 11:08:14 AM »
Had a sell signal after the last post which moved down nearly 200 pips into the close. A nice end to a good week.

I have been looking at the readership data at the top of these pages and it seems strange that apparently these posts are read about 50 times on average - but no one comments and any attachments are only viewed a few times. Are there really any readers out there and, if so, why are you reading these posts?? It doesn't bother me, I would just be more careful and more specific and detailed if I really thought anyone was actually reading this stuff! Otherwise, I tend to just treat this thread as a personal blog......
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #338 on: July 19, 2021, 07:55:19 AM »
The Big Tech sector of the SP500 index has been one of the main driving forces during the COVID era. We are going to see the 2nd quarter results of a few of these companies this week, which may well substantially influence near-term direction if they significantly differ from expectations.

In the background, inflation concerns and the stubbornly rising numbers in COVID delta variant cases globally are creating doubts about the durability of global growth recovery rates.

Maybe this week will be another directionally indecisive week with plenty of short-term moves in both directions. That definitely suits my summer fixed-pip strategy.

The strategy itself has theoretically a 100% success rate so far this month but unless one can sit and watch every hour then that is not achievable in practice. Nor is it possible to reproduce entirely
 mechanically. I have missed signals, made late entries, taken premature exits and varied position sizes - all of which impact comparisons with the theoretical results. So far, the "system" is slightly ahead of the "actual", but I am content with what it has provided so far.................   
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #339 on: July 19, 2021, 05:30:49 PM »
Quite a soggy market today, continuing the move from Friday. A couple of nice trades done. I think I might leave it at that today. It will be interesting to see where we end up tonight.......
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #340 on: July 20, 2021, 07:33:23 AM »
In the background, inflation concerns and the stubbornly rising numbers in COVID delta variant cases globally are creating doubts about the durability of global growth recovery rates.
Stock markets started the week very weak! But although the SP500 fell steadily during the early hours of the US session, it did recover quite a large share of that fall into the close.

As far as I can see, the main driving factor was the COVID delta variant high infection rate which raises concerns over renewed lockdowns and restrictions and the consequent "sand in the oil" which is lubricating the recovery.

As one comment put it: Fears that the recovery boom will be more of a pop than a boom......

However, these fears are just "foot off the accelerator" rather than "foot on the brakes" and represent a bit of backtracking rather than a reversal in expectations, so I anticipate a slow recovery rather than a rout here - but maybe not today. I anticipate a rather jumpy erratic day's price action today and I am going to be very careful where and when, and even whether, to enter a trade today!
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #341 on: July 20, 2021, 03:59:05 PM »
After a weak start, the market has found its feet again and is looking strong. Netflix 2nd quarter results are apparently due after market hours today and that could create some waves, depending on its content.

All in all, this appears to still be a strong market built of firm foundations despite its occasional sell-offs.

Two trades today, an early buy with a 50 pip target in the UK session and then a full 100 pip target buy in this US session. Both signalled entries but I was too nervous about the early London trade to look for a full 100 pips, which, of course, would have materialised if I had left.

But, there it is, a good day with little stress and a nice result.
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #342 on: July 20, 2021, 07:59:01 PM »
Maybe this week will be another directionally indecisive week with plenty of short-term moves in both directions. That definitely suits my summer fixed-pip strategy.
Here we are heading towards the Tuesday night close. So far we have seen a notably weak day and now a notably strong day. And where are we now? Well, we finished last week, Friday, at 4323 - and right now we are as 4329! Good short term moves going nowhere!   ;D Love it!  :)
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #343 on: July 21, 2021, 08:19:16 AM »
No change overnight and no clear direction for the London session. The globe is in bit of a mess right now with persistent upsurges in COVID cases and destructive weather extremes and record spending needs by governments everywhere. Can the US stock market just keep ploughing on from strength to strength? Maybe, but not much chance of overheating!!! So steady as we go with the odd step back now and again.

Let's see whether the US session offers a trade today......
Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......

Kaitsu

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Re: S&P500
« Reply #344 on: July 21, 2021, 07:44:12 PM »
A rather lacklustre day on the SP500, some further small upward movement that's all.

Managed one half-hearted trade, which I closed for only +30 pips out of sheer boredom really. Maybe tomorrow will be livelier  :-\

Ships are safe in harbour - but that is not what ships are for......