Author Topic: EURUSD  (Read 743 times)

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2019, 08:30:59 PM »
Looking at the EU daily chart, there is an interesting break of a longstanding downtrend line. And if today's candle closes  on its highs then we have a pinbar with the low forming the bottom of a new uptrend line.

Whilst I don't anticipate any great moves on this pair I have set up a long with no target and a trailing stop starting with today's low and then trailing under that possible new uptrend line.

This is not a very high probability trade but the stop is quite near and therefore a reasonable risk v gain.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 07:36:55 PM by Emerson »

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2019, 08:45:30 PM »
Some added support for the above trade is found on the 4-hour chart:

Price has tested the 200-period SMA several times as support (shown in the red circles) together with bouncing off a low that formed the third touch on the new uptrend line.

The 20-50 MAs are also aligned upwards on this 4-hour chart but not yet on the daily chart. It would be nice to see a close above the daily 50 EMA at 1.1040.

« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 07:37:14 PM by Emerson »

Caesar

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2019, 09:27:55 PM »
Are you long on this pair yet, or just watching?

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2019, 09:37:27 PM »
Are you long on this pair yet, or just watching?
Yes I am long. You can see the position on the left hand side of the above chart attachments. Entry and stop but no limit yet. It is currently at par.

Caesar

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2019, 09:42:52 PM »
Doh! Really should have spotted that, no excuses.

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2019, 07:32:41 AM »
Doh! Really should have spotted that, no excuses.
Those lines don't show up that well on my charts. I will try to improve them visually. I have added some colouring to emphasise the 20-50 MA zone. I think that helps the other lines to stand out.

I decided to close this position already here for 23 green pips as I still can find no underlying reason why this pair should move substantially, apart from any Brexit fallout affecting the Euro specifically, even though its technical setup in the shorter timeframes is very positive.

We just sprung up towards the highs reached last week and that might be an area of resistance without further impetus to push it through and hold above it. It is an area of resistance from earlier times too.

The 4-hour chart does show a concentration of various different support-type issues just below the price:

- Price has broken above the 4H 200SMA, which is now at now at 1.1000

- 1.1000 is a Psychosupport "big number" that was tested earlier and held with a strong bounce off it

- The new uptrendline and old down trendline both intersect at 1.0990

- 1.1000 is the midpoint of last week's range and we are trading in the upper half of that

- The 50 EMA forming the bottom of the 20-50 zone is also at around 1.1000

So I still think this looks good with a stop below these lines, but without an underlying reason for further upside potential I am out now until we manage to break above last week's high and hold there.


   
« Last Edit: November 01, 2019, 06:15:15 AM by Emerson »

Caesar

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2019, 08:07:13 AM »
There's a big element of risk involved in any pair containing Euro or Gbp this week, due to the uncertainty around the Brexit talks.
Yes, some will say that there are also opportunities and some will do very well out if it, but the riskside is just too big. A total collapse in the talks would send Sterling spiralling downwards and would damage the Euro as well.
I'm happy sitting on my fence until there is a clearer sense of direction here. 

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2019, 09:30:27 AM »
There's a big element of risk involved in any pair containing Euro or Gbp this week, due to the uncertainty around the Brexit talks.
Yes, some will say that there are also opportunities and some will do very well out if it, but the riskside is just too big. A total collapse in the talks would send Sterling spiralling downwards and would damage the Euro as well.
I'm happy sitting on my fence until there is a clearer sense of direction here.
Yes, one has to accept that we are currently in an exceptional environment with Brexit this week and markets will (over)react to anything and everything as it occurs, and no one knows when anything will occur!

But it is still useful to follow one's technicals and at least try to keep the pips flowing, albeit on a slower basis.

But I guess these kinds of little trades are not really worth publishing here as they are of no value to anyone else. I just wanted to bring something more tangible to the trading discussion table rather than just talk. But better to wait until there is something more substantial to post about in that respect.  :D

Caesar

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2019, 04:26:28 PM »
Its always worth showing your trades and, more importantly,  the reasoning behind them.
Its always good to see someone else's perspective,  you never know what you might learn and put to use.
Personally,  I'm not actually in any trades at the moment.  Get Brexit out of the way first, then see whats around.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2019, 04:28:34 PM by Caeser »

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2019, 11:31:58 AM »
Update on the above trade:

EU has continued to respect that crossover in trendline to the upside and, after retesting last week's highs, has continued upwards quite nicely, considering the Brexit nervousness this week.

But I am closed out now at the top end of the channel and no longer have a position here ahead of the weekend.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2019, 06:15:41 AM by Emerson »

eddieb

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #25 on: October 29, 2019, 03:41:13 PM »
I have just shorted this pair @1.112, target of 1.09.
Lets see how this plays out

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #26 on: October 29, 2019, 05:41:02 PM »
I have just shorted this pair @1.112, target of 1.09.
Lets see how this plays out

Brilliant entry!

So far so good!  :)

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2019, 08:47:38 AM »
I have just shorted this pair @1.112, target of 1.09.
Lets see how this plays out

Brilliant entry!

So far so good!  :)

Are you still in this trade?

Just out of interest, what is your rationale here for the trade or is it now just a FOMC trade? Where are you looking to exit the trade if it goes up?

My own charts are actually pretty much flat right now in the short end (1H) but still positive in the longer end(Daily - 4H). Anyone following the 3 ducks would be looking at the 60SMA on the 4H chart right now?

eddieb

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2019, 02:55:45 PM »
Hello.
Looking purely at  price action,  I thought a drop was likely.
However,  I had forgotten their was a Fed Reserve announcement due today, so it could blow up in my face.
Forecast is for another rate cut today, so glad I have a stop in place.

Kaitsu

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Re: EURUSD
« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2019, 03:11:17 PM »
Forecast is for another rate cut today, so glad I have a stop in place.

Yes that is the forecast, but I think it is pretty much already priced in. But I guess everyone will be looking at the comments to see if there are hints of more to come!

Wishing you good luck!  :D