EURUSD

[Kaitsu]

The Euro has been gradually weakening against the USD since the summer, but has been ranging for most of September.

Mario Draghi, the ECB President, is talking later today.

Here is 1st attempt at posting a chart here.

[Kim]

Hi 
What are the 3 coloured lines? Are they moving averages?
Thanks

[Kaitsu]

Hi 
What are the 3 coloured lines? Are they moving averages?
Thanks

Hi Kim.

Firstly, I should emphasise that these charts are not my trading charts as such. They are only a "window" on what is going on generally with the instrument concerned. So, in this case, I am not suggesting using these MA's as some kind of crossover strategy. I don't believe any kind of pure crossover methods work at all.

The idea behind the choice of MAs here is purely that they are ones that are widely followed in the markets in general and tend to "curve fit" well to the price charts and therefore form a good pictorial indication of where things are going whilst filtering out a lot of "noise".

The red and blue lines are 20 and 50 period EMAs and the green dashed line is a 200 period SMA. In the same way as the 3 ducks method that you mentioned (and, as it happens, the general idea behind the Bill William's alligator indicator) when these three lines are lining up in order then it suggests a good trend is in place, but when they are squiggly all over the chart then it suggests a period of directionless consolidation.

I tend to use this on the daily chart to give a general overview of what is the current story. Then I drop to my 4H/1H trade charts for my actual entries. If there is a strong trend then I tend to only go in that direction, but if it is consolidating then I'll go with a signal in either direction.

I hope that doesn't sound too complicated! 

[Kaitsu]

Quiet day yesterday. Saw some early continuation of the downside following negative business activity readings across the EU but without further follow-through on the day. Overall daily trend is still down.

[Kaitsu]

The EU has continued its slow grind downwards.

I think this is quite surprising given the uncertainty on one hand over Brexit and its various possible affects on the EU and Euro zones.

And on the other hand, the simultaneous upheaval in US politics and the threatened impeachment proceeding against President Trump, as well as the looming US-China trade talks, would seem to be topics that would create severe volatility in the USD side of this pair.

But I am starting to get a little cautious here. We are approaching levels last seen in the first half of 2017 and further significant falls could start running into some support and creating some erratic price movements intraday.

EU Weekly chart:

[Caesar]

While I can't see much happening soon in the US/China talks, and the impeachment is unlikely to achieve anything without 20 Republicans turning against Trump,  any good or bad news on Brexit could send the Euro soaring or falling with speed.
I'm happy watching this from the sidelines for now

[Kaitsu]

I'm happy watching this from the sidelines for now

Yes it is quite frustrating constantly feeling the concern of sudden statements at any time. We seem to be trading most things on the basis of comments rather than data nowadays.

I have been short this pair, but as of this week, only day trading, or rather toe-dipping, just to keep a touch on it. E.g. this morning in/out for just a quick 10 pips, not a pleasant or rewarding way to trade a market.

[Kaitsu]

Some interesting candles here on the one hour chart. This doesn't really mean anything very significant on such a short term chart, but perhaps signs of some short covering?

[Kaitsu]

That series of tails shown above on the EU hourly chart did lead to an slight upward drift all day and a fairly neutral close on the day. But a hefty down for the week.

The EU pair is still looking very weak based on continuing weak data for the EU area and Germany in particular, being the powerhouse of the EU economy.

Next week, amongst other things, the UK govt is rumoured to be presenting its Brexit ideas to the EU after the annual Conservative party conference, ending 2 Oct. If so, then how these ideas are received will be very indicative of the likely agenda at the EU summit 17-18 Oct and whether the need for a deadline extension will become the main issue.

[Caesar]

From a price action viewpoint, it looks like the attempts to rally have run out of steam and another drop is likely.
Very unlikely that any Brexit agreement will be reached,  given that one side totally rejects the backstop while the other insists on it. Hard to see any common ground or area where they could compromise

[Kaitsu]

Not really much to say here at present.

The pair is rather neutral near term and I wouldn't like to predict where we go from here.

The EUR half will be looking at the Brexit deal proposal, whilst the USD half will be watching the Fed messages coming out from Fed Chairman Jerome's speeches and FOMC minutes this week.

Whilst the US economy is still holding on, weaker signs are appearing and the market is looking for a responding easing from the Fed. The stock market is rising positively to the anticipation of further US rate cuts but the currency may well weaken as a result.

[Kaitsu]

Just thought I give this thread a bump.

Whilst this pair has continued to gyrate, it has settled down into some longer term underlying moves, albeit nothing very dramatic.

I think the key thing to note about this pair's price action is NOT to chase it! Every time it makes a spurt in one direction or another it then pulls back into line somewhere around the 20-50 EMA core zone.

Looking at this 4-hour chart from beginning of Sept, those red circles show this quite well and if anyone was chasing the price then these circles would be very appropriately coloured!

[eddieb]

I would endorse your advice about not chasing this pair. I’ve done quite well out of this and GbpUsd over the past 3/4 months but I’m keeping my money in my pocket until there is a better sense of direction.
Far too much of a gamble for now

[Kaitsu]

I’ve done quite well out of this and GbpUsd over the past 3/4 months but I’m keeping my money in my pocket until there is a better sense of direction.
Far too much of a gamble for now

That, Eddieb, is yet another brilliant topic for a thread for apprentice traders!! 

From the little I see of Newbie trading, it is all focused on pip-earning rather than pip-retaining.

So often, it seems people start off earning well, only to give a lot of it, sometimes all of it, back again.

As you infer, managing one's account is maybe even more important than managing one's positions. And should never be ignored. From a risk/money management point of view even a no-position decision is actually still a position! 

[Kaitsu]

EURUSD continues to be a rather boring pair. Whilst GBP is centre-stage, this pair has just been drifting this week in a very tight range.