Good to see you popping in,
@Kaitsu While I have everyone's attention I wanted to say sorry for not putting up more analysis videos, it has been quite busy
and I have actually stopped trading demo for now because I have 886 trades to analyse and also I am revising for the December
exam (Chartered Market Technician, Level 1), plus being a dad, teaching, etc. That is plenty for anyone! But I also genuinely
do not have much to say because I am not keeping my eye on the fx market as much at the moment, just taking a look at the charts but not really going deep. I am actually hoping to make room for some metrics analysis to see how I have done in terms of trading, and trying to perhaps quantify my trading strategy in terms of what my decision-making process looks like and whether it can be tested. For a backtesting/signal-testing novice, this is a huge field to get into, but there is support out there and I have at least some ideas as to how to get a foot into data analysis of my own performance. As I lack practice in this field, I will have to do a lot of gruelling work, which is quite time-consuming, assembling/formatting data for analysis, e.g. working out daily P/L from
the list of all trades, then putting that data into FundSeeder to access their analytics, and also (one of my ideas) to plot it as a .csv import as a chart line (closing P/L data) in Optuma against the EUR/USD, DXY, SPX, EUR/TRY, and XAU/USD lines, to spot any tendencies, i.e. when did my equity curve benefit from momentum and when from flat/ranging conditions for each of the assets that I traded? I could then also look at how well I did trading my strategy, which is generically speaking better suited to trading
from one round-number level to the next within historic levels, and is therefore not very well suited to securities like the SPX and EUR/TRY which have historically just continued tracing new highs (which makes previous price points TA pretty pointless and most 'overbought' RSI fail, though of course Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci expansions can have a place).
So this is what trading should look like, and I have been negligent in doing this legwork for such a long time, maybe because I needed my first profitable year to give me confidence that I had a reason to invest in this area. Now I do, and I have developed a real desire (though time is a great enemy in this respect) to develop my quantitative analysis of my strategy.
I am just saying all this because when I looked at the video with Patrick Boyle I saw how much the trading gurus out there do NOT talk about the hard work that one should do, and just say 'buy here, sell at this line, make money'... Every trader interviewed on a podcast like Chat With Traders or Better System Trader uses quantitative/data analysis to get to fine-tune their trading strategy: this is the only way, in a data-driven era, to become credible (to yourself first, and to others if you intend to go professional/employed in this field).
As for Scruffy, a lot of TA like that is okay, of course, but what needs to happen is that people also get educated in analysing data from their own trading, including volatility, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ration, de-trending data, using Montecarlo simulation/randomisation, etc. Without all this one is truly swimming in the dark, and I am just becoming aware of the huge benefits that this (boring, difficult) work can bring to one's trading.
I wish that Scruffy could come and speak for himself... it is a sorry thing to see here...
Trade Safe
PipMeHappy