Author Topic: EUR/USD update, 28/09/2020  (Read 175 times)

PipMeHappy

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EUR/USD update, 28/09/2020
« on: September 28, 2020, 09:14:32 PM »


Hello traders,

today I look at the start of this week and the pretty abysmal drop in
volatility, direction strength, and relative strength in EUR/USD: gone are the opportunity of March-April. but at least the start of last week was a little more promising...

What next? I look at the wide context of the prevailing 12-year downtrend that we have now comfortably confirmed, and the Futures volume side as well as the Options open interest side, to determine what the possible outcomes of this stall could be.

Also looking at 5m, 1h, 4h, and daily position of price in relation to 20-period EMA for trading signals.

Keep sharp
Stay safe

PipMeHappy

BWS

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Re: EUR/USD update, 28/09/2020
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2020, 09:30:51 PM »
Nice analysis PipMeHappy, and by and large I tend to agree with it.

I think there is a possibility to make decent money day trading this pair, but  have my concerns over its longer term direction. Each of these two face uncertainty over the coming month, USD with the upcoming presidential elections which could go either way, taking sentiment with it, and the Euro being impacted by both the second wave of coronavirus and with the hard stance being taken by the EU and UK over Brexit talks.

Plenty of trading opportunities, but keeping one eye on news events is a must.
"I wouldn't say I'm the best manager in the business, but I'm probably in the top 1" - Brian Clough

PipMeHappy

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Re: EUR/USD update, 28/09/2020
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2020, 09:21:22 AM »
Hello Ben @BWS

I agree... of course, statistically there is always work to do.

I am hoping (if I get time) that I can load up all my trading account stats onto Optuma charting

that I have on trial until December and then plot a line chart of the daily P/L against a line chart of EUR/USD,

which is the instrument that I traded the most: why do I want to do this?

It would allow me to see very quickly the relationship between volatility in EUR/USD and my account growth:

under the EUR/USD chart I would also plot the ATR or ADX (range and direction) to see the relationship between

quite/weak periods in EUR/USD and my account growth/loss/neutral stage.

I also traded other things but it could still be helpful to define how I trade and what kind of volatility I need to

grow my account...

Anyway, today I am so fed up with EUR/USD that I have gone long EUR/TRY as it is unstoppable in its 12-year uptrend...

Risked less than 2% on the trade, and about double on the target.

Euro, Dollar index, and SP500 are all treading water in choppy conditions at the time of writing this.

What are you keeping your eyes on?


PipMeHappy

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Re: EUR/USD update, 28/09/2020
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2020, 11:56:41 AM »
Trade idea failed...

but thank goodness I put a stop in  ;) Look how much more price dropped after my trade got closed... 800 pips and counting...




BWS

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Re: EUR/USD update, 28/09/2020
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2020, 03:07:38 PM »
thank goodness I put a stop in
Much better position to be in than 'I wish I'd put a stop in'
"I wouldn't say I'm the best manager in the business, but I'm probably in the top 1" - Brian Clough