Author Topic: What is moving the markets this week  (Read 12094 times)

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #60 on: March 12, 2020, 04:36:25 PM »
Hello all.

FTSE is continuing to fall. Over 10% today.
Government is about to release Cobra decisions,  general feeling is not great and shares might well fall some more when this is revealed.
Sterling pushing down to 1.25
More to follow...
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Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #61 on: March 12, 2020, 04:58:13 PM »
Well, not really much for the time being.
From tomorrow,  all people with fever or flu like symptoms will be asked to self isolate for 7 days.
No more school trips overseas.
Over-70s to avoid cruises
Not closing schools now.

Considering banning large public events,  to be decided later.

Boris says true numbers infected is probably much higher than we realise- markets wont like that! His chief medical advisor thinks the actual figure is around 5000 infected now,  as against the 596 reported figure. "We are 4 weeks behind Italy"
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 05:08:08 PM by Caesar »
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Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #62 on: April 15, 2020, 10:58:01 AM »
Hello, and good morning.
Sterling has taken a bit of a hit today, possibly on the back of the OBR (Office of Budget Responsibility) saying that the UK economy could fall 35% in Q2.
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Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #63 on: April 16, 2020, 10:26:18 AM »
Stocks and shares took a bit of a battering yesterday following some very poor numbers from the banks, another oil drop, and weak economic data.

US retail sales fell 8.7% month on month, the worst since 1992. UK didnt fare much better, falling 4.3% in March.

In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a gauge of factory activity in New York state recorded its steepest ever fall to hit –78.2, far worse than the –32 expected. April is expected to be even worse, as the lockdown did not kick in until part way through March.

Todays US jobless numbers will be watched closely, 5 million is the expected number.

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Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #64 on: April 22, 2020, 10:22:39 AM »
After yesterday when most indices fell, today has started cautiously optimistically in Europe. Hopefully this will hold up and the US will follow suite.

The recent pain in oil markets is unsettling risk appetite more broadly, with the S&P 500 down 3% and the Dow shedding over 600 points yesterday, and its hard to see much positive regarding oil as things stand.

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Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #65 on: May 05, 2020, 11:21:04 AM »
The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold at the record low 0.25 per cent and seems to be intent on staying there for a while. The RBA won’t go negative and won’t hike until the Covid-19 crisis is well in the rear view mirror. This is a pattern being repeated by most major central banks. 
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Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #66 on: June 23, 2020, 11:35:05 AM »
Peter Navarro,  Trumps trade adviser, announced yesterday that the China-US trade deal was over,  prompting markets to fall first thing.
Trump then tweeted "The China Trade Deal is fully intact. Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the Agreement"
Who was telling the truth is hard to ascertain,  but it admitting the deal was dead could be inconvenient in the run up to the election
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ElvisChute

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #67 on: June 23, 2020, 02:38:10 PM »
That must be annoying for people trying to trade the news. One thing one minute, then deny it the next. I suppose it make sit harder for technical traders as well as news like this will change what they see on their screens as well.
Has it always been like this or is this just since Donald Trump came into office?
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eddieb

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #68 on: July 08, 2020, 10:49:26 AM »
Mini budget due in the UK today, chancellor starts speaking in just under 2 hours.

Some of his proposals have been leaked, and these look like good ideas to me. The £500 voucher is a good idea as it should encourage people to visit physical shops. The change to stamp duty less so, sellers may ask for higher prices or be more reluctant to accept offers if they know the buyer is saving on stamp duty

Let's see how it pans out
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

BWS

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #69 on: July 08, 2020, 02:30:03 PM »
Mini budget due in the UK today, chancellor starts speaking in just under 2 hours.

Some of his proposals have been leaked, and these look like good ideas to me. The £500 voucher is a good idea as it should encourage people to visit physical shops. The change to stamp duty less so, sellers may ask for higher prices or be more reluctant to accept offers if they know the buyer is saving on stamp duty

Let's see how it pans out

Nothing unexpected so FTSE continues on its merry way sideways.
There was a bit of a drop first thing followed by a bit of a recovery. Low cost housing providers like Persimmon rose after the announcement of the stamp duty holiday for properties up to £500k, but more expensive providers fell as traders realised the chancellors choice of words suggested that properties over £500k would not benefit at all.

I dont like the idea of vouchers to get 50% restaurant discount during August. The danger is that people put themselves at risk by eating out rather than lose out on a freebie and we have another wave of coronavirus come September.
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BWS

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #70 on: July 26, 2020, 02:58:58 PM »
A few things to watch out for if you are trading Monday.

At 9:00am UK time, the German IFO Business Climate Index is out. This is a high volatility warning, you can expect fluctuation around this time in Euro pairs.
It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers compiled by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.
The forecast for tomorrow (Monday) is 89.3 against last months number of 86.2, so anything significantly over 89.3 should send the Euro up, and anything lower should send it down.

Later in the day, at 1:30pm UK time, is the US Core Durable Goods Orders, which measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods (excluding some products such as aircraft parts which can take months to complete). A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
The forecast is 3.5% against last months 3.7%.

Personally I will be out of the market by 1pm as far as USD pairs are concerned.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 03:02:54 PM by BWS »
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eddieb

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #71 on: July 29, 2020, 09:53:28 AM »
If/when the proposed US stimulus package is finally signed off it should provide a boost to the market.

Republicans' $1 trillion (773.99 billion pounds) proposal includes cutting a weekly $600 unemployment benefit, which expires on Friday, to $200 just as cracks emerge in the economic rebound. Cant see $200 going down very well with the public, dangerous given how close the election is.

The Democrats are pressing for a larger spending commitment, while President Donald Trump also said he didn't like elements of the Republican plan, adding to the sense of confusion.
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eddieb

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #72 on: August 10, 2020, 08:07:27 AM »
Positive economic news out of China has given an early boost to Europe this morning, hopefully the sentiment will continue
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eddieb

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #73 on: August 13, 2020, 09:26:03 AM »
We have another round of US-China trade talks this weekend.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said this week the deal was "fine right now," something you can read as either positive or negative depending on your point of view. For example, Japanese stocks rose on the belief that this looks good and that the 2 nations will stick with the deal and move forward, whereas Bloomberg report that China is behind in farm goods and energy purchases and this could add to conflict between the 2.
Disclaimer. Posts are just my thoughts,  not recommendations.  Do your own due diligence before trading

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #74 on: August 19, 2020, 01:00:27 PM »
A few wobbles today after President Trump on Tuesday said he has cancelled trade talks with Beijing days after a scheduled review of the initial Phase One trade agreement was postponed.

Relations between Washington and Beijing have been tense since Trump took office, initially largely over trade and intellectual property disputes, and spiralling downwards as the coronavirus pandemic worsened.

Additionally, investors are holding out hope over a possible breakthrough in deadlocked US economic stimulus talks.
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