Week 14.-18.10On one hand this promises to be an eventful week with many defining events on a number of fronts. But on the other hand it is likely to be an extremely difficult week to actually
trade.
UK:Today, Monday, is pageantry day in the UK with the Queen's Speech in the House of Lords. This speech will outline 22 new bills that form the government's plans post-Brexit, which is still assumed to happen on 31.10.
Whilst it is refreshing to hear talk on other subjects than just Brexit, it is rather meaningless coming from a government that is not really a government at all with such a significant parliamentary minority and a strong likelihood of a general election in the near future.
So the UK is most likely this week to be totally focused on the final Brexit negotiations with the EU in the run up to the summit at the end of the week and UK parliament meeting on Sat. So the GBP is likely to be reacting to news and rumours as and when they appear.
USA lot of good news was built into the markets late last week based on the reported successful completion of a "Phase 1" of a US-China trade agreement. But nothing is yet in writing and it is too soon for hype about a "stage 2". So markets may well be back to watching for signs of the global slowdown both in the US and around the globe, especially in China.
Domestically, the impeachment enquiries will continue and probably intensify and, of course, the rhetoric will sharpen accordingly.
The decision to withdraw US troops from Syria and the subsequent invasion by Turkey is a potentially significant event, especially with news that Syrian government forces are being sent to face the Turkish forces. This is yet another destabilising event in the Middle East alongside the SA and Iran issues.
But it is also a destabilising issue within the EU as well. Turkey, a NATO country, is sending defiant messages to both the US and the EU which, from a trading perspective, only serves to blur the underlying traditional currency fundamentals.
EURI still find it difficult to identify specific issues relating to the Euro when its pair currencies have such strong issues of their own, such as the GBP. I am sure that Brexit is going to be the top issue for this week at least and the other issues in the end-of-week summit will take second place from a currency perspective.
I don't personally follow the Far East markets very closely, so if anyone else wants to add something about those then please do so!