Author Topic: What is moving the markets this week  (Read 3841 times)

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2019, 07:45:23 AM »
The RBA decided to hold its interest rates in line with expectations, adding that the Australian economy had not changed in the previous 3 months.
The expect their economy to grow by 2.25% in 2020, increasing to 3% in 2021.
The markets responded well to this, with the Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68864 to $0.68879 upon release of the figures

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #31 on: November 05, 2019, 09:19:36 PM »
China insisting that the US withdraw all tariffs imposed since the start of last year.
Although the 2 sides are close to agreement on some issues,  such as I.P. and foreign exchange,  there are other unresolved talks on soya beans and other products.
Trump is understandably keen to get a deal signed off but how will he react to China frustrating him from doing so?
Lets see what the markets make of this.

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #32 on: November 06, 2019, 07:51:55 AM »
Reuters report that China and France are in negotiations regarding helicopter and Airbus purchases from Beijing.
These will concern the US, sending a clear message that Boeing is not the only player in town. On top of existing problems related to the Boeing Max, this could send shares in the company spiralling downwards and threatens thousands of US highly-skilled jobs.

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #33 on: November 06, 2019, 10:35:02 PM »
Quite a mixed bag today. Gold edged slightly higher without pulling back earlier losses on Tuesday. 
EurUsd is still lagging under 1.11 in spite of better than expected EU data.
GbpUsd remains below 1.29 as the UK parliament is dissolved and electioneering begins in earnest.
UsdJpy also slid following news that any China-US trade deal may be delayed until December at the earliest.  This news also affected many US stocks

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #34 on: November 07, 2019, 08:09:51 AM »
Bank of England rate decision today is unlikely to spring any surprises,  so I don't expect much market movement because of this.
Gold prices are still stuck in a range below last months figure, but Chinese trade figures out tomorrow could turn the focus back on gold and commodities in general.
Rising US stockpiles of crude are keeping the lid on oil prices, these are also range bound with little sign of movement in any direction.
Difficult market in which to pick any winners currently.


Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #35 on: November 07, 2019, 10:13:09 AM »
Reuters are reporting today that Canada is resuming beef and pork exports to China.
Separately,  they also report that China and the US may begin rolling back trade tariffs very soon.
This should provide a boost to some US stocks, if it proves to be correct.

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #36 on: November 10, 2019, 08:15:15 AM »
China-US

Reports coming out of Washington yesterday conflicted with Friday reports that claimed the US and China were close to agreeing to roll back some tariffs as they neared completion of phase 1 of the trade talks.
Would expect this to have a negative impact on US stocks, Australia, and some Asian forex pairs

Kaitsu

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #37 on: November 10, 2019, 10:01:43 AM »
China-US

Reports coming out of Washington yesterday conflicted with Friday reports that claimed the US and China were close to agreeing to roll back some tariffs as they neared completion of phase 1 of the trade talks.
Would expect this to have a negative impact on US stocks, Australia, and some Asian forex pairs
It seems to be becoming harder and harder to form a view on most markets longer than 5 minutes! Swing trades of 1-3 days seem to build slowly into profit and then collapse back to breakeven in minutes! And the long trends have disappeared for now.

Personally, I am just ticking over on day trades in the London/NY session. Strangely, in its own way, it is quite restful without having to constantly carry a view in one's mind and, nowadays, always wondering and anticipating in expectation, just when it is going to reverse. 

But it is a bit "retro" in personal trading development, and doesn't create much to talk about with others!

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #38 on: November 11, 2019, 07:40:01 AM »
Moodys downgrading the UK credit outlook to negative from stable in Friday, together with data releases this week, will bring focus back to Sterling.  On the plus side, the UK avoided slipping into recession.

A swine flu epidemic in China meant the culling of pigs, and this may partially explain the deal China struck with Canada to resume imports of pork (and beef) last week. Recent Chinese PMI figures point towards a slight improvement in their economy,  although inflation might be an issue for them

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2019, 08:11:23 AM »
Reuters report that markets in Asia are falling due to a lack of certainty about the China-US trade talks and concerns over the riots in Hong Kong.
Japan fell just over 1% and Hong Kong by 2%.
Pres Trump said that the US were not close to signing a deal, adding that more tariffs could be imposed if this did not happen.


Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #40 on: November 15, 2019, 07:55:55 AM »
US retail sales figures out later today, 1:30pm UK time. Markets are looking a figure around 0.5, anything less could be a bad sign.
Larry Kudlow, the White House economic adviser, said Thursday that Washington is getting close to a trade deal, which should provide a bit of a boost

Kaitsu

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #41 on: November 22, 2019, 08:07:42 AM »
Looking back over the past week instead of forward, for a change, this comment seems to say it all:

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/currencies-in-paralysis-as-trade-headline-fatigue-sets-in-2025843

I think the attached chart also underscores this commentary for the SP500. This is a 15 min chart since the start of Nov, i.e. 21 days! And it has a total range of only around 600 pips and within that, most of time in an even narrower 450 pip range.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2019, 08:18:16 AM by Emerson »

Kaitsu

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #42 on: December 09, 2019, 10:05:19 AM »
A lot happening this week:

 - UK elections 12th (look for whether Conservatives get a majority win or not)

- US additional tariffs on China goods on 15th  - or not!

Fed interest rate decision

ECB interest rate decision (and what comments from new President Christine Lagarde)

Amidst the other usual releases.....

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #43 on: December 12, 2019, 07:59:37 AM »
I think we all know what one of  the biggest factors in todays markets is likely to be, the UK General Election which takes place today.
Yesterdays polls suggested a narrowing of the gap between the 2 largest parties, suggesting a possible hung parliament.
Todays exit polls may cause market jitters, as could the first early results,  so avoiding GBP pairs might not be a bad idea

Kaitsu

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #44 on: December 12, 2019, 01:52:16 PM »
Yes, the key point is whether the conservatives get a clear majority. If not, we are in for more of the same uncertainty that has plagued the markets for a long time already.

And once we know the answer to that later today,  we can immediately start to ponder the likelihood of Trump 15% additional tariffs on China at the weekend.....