Author Topic: What is moving the markets this week  (Read 3839 times)

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2019, 08:02:55 AM »
Asian Markets update

Focus yesterday was on China's Q3 GDP figures which, although narrowly missing forecast (6.0 v 6.1) was still regarded as a strong number.
AudUsd and UsdJpy barely changed on this data. Separately,  Japan announced inflation figures at a 30 month low

Kaitsu

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2019, 05:45:39 PM »
Week 21.-25.10

Centre stage this week must surely be the issue of Boris Johnson's freshly negotiated deal with the EU and whether it is accepted in the UK parliament.

The voting is definitely going to be very close again and there is no way of predicting its outcome when there are so many parties involved.

An indication of the closeness in voting is apparent in the results of the vote for the amendment on Saturday that led to the postponement of the vote for the deal itself. It passed by 322 votes to 306. In other words only 9-10 votes in the other direction would have been enough to give a different verdict.

The conservatives have a significant minority and therefore in order to get their deal passed they need votes from other groups:

The DUP, which on Saturday still claimed they would vote against it
The ex-Conservative (sacked) independents, who now apparently are mostly go to support the deal
The Labour rebels and ex-Labour andother independents - unknown 
Liberal Democrats who are most likely all against the deal
The SNP who are almost certainly entirely against the deal

This could go either way, which means the GBP and EUR could see some erratic volatility early in the week and then maybe even stagnation as the vote gets closer.

Will Brexit finally be resolved during this week? Or will the EU end up having to decide whether to grant a further extension and a general election declared in the UK?


Alongside this and very much in its shadow will be further economic data releases reflecting the state of the economies around the globe and some Central Bank interest rate issues.

And then we still have the continuing US impeachment proceedings. And maybe deepening scandals relating to the Turkish Halkbank bank and its alleged money laundering of illicit Iranian oil sales and possible ties with Donald Trump's attorney, Rudy Giuliani.

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2019, 06:40:50 PM »
Asian Markets

Reuters reported that China’s top central banker said on Saturday that potential escalation of trade tensions and policy uncertainty were the major risk factors facing the world economy, and market forces were keeping China’s yuan at an appropriate level.

His statement said that the depreciation in the yuan since the beginning of August has been driven by market forces, including volatility prompted by escalating trade tensions. Yi added that there was “growing market acceptance for two-way exchange rate fluctuations” in the yuan, also known as the renminbi or RMB.

In a dig at the Trump administration’s “America First” trade stance, Yi said: “the wave of populism and protectionism in some countries has undermined mutual trust, reducing their willingness to cooperate on a multilateral basis.”

To my ear, that doesn't sound like a China-US trade deal is anywhere near close.


eddieb

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2019, 08:10:31 AM »
I think we can expect some volatility today in any Sterling pairs as BJ tries to get his deal passed.
I'm watching from the sidelines again today

Namaste

Kaitsu

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2019, 06:52:01 AM »
Week 28.10.-1.11

Lots happening this week!

Centre stage, as usual, is Brexit. Today, Monday, should determine if we are going to have a general election in December, and how far the EU is prepared to extend the Brexit deadline and with what options and/or conditions. The answers to those questions will also determine the future handling of the WAB and the current UK/EU deal.

This week is also dominated by the central banks with three of them making interest rate decisions. EU Draghi is talking today and then mid-week sees the Canadian central bank and US Fed interest rate decisions, followed by Bank of Japan on Thursday.

And to end the week, we have the over-hyped US non-farm payrolls data on Friday.

My focus for this week is for possible new highs on SP500 and looking to buy any dips early on. And possible continuation of strength for the GBP against either USD or JPY. But although the longer term charts are still positive, I do not have a buy signal from my hourly chart yet for either of these (which are currently almost identical charts), so I am sidelined with crosshairs on the hourly.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2019, 06:53:59 AM by Emerson »

Kaitsu

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2019, 06:27:03 PM »
My focus for this week is for possible new highs on SP500 and looking to buy any dips early on. And possible continuation of strength for the GBP against either USD or JPY. But although the longer term charts are still positive, I do not have a buy signal from my hourly chart yet for either of these (which are currently almost identical charts), so I am sidelined with crosshairs on the hourly.
Well, got  a long trade out of GBPJPY but the SP500 left upwards without me on board, unfortunately! Being a Monday, I was expecting at least some kind of pullback, but price just hung around the highs from last week and then just took off. It happens!

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2019, 07:49:14 AM »
Asian Markets

Asian markets trading was mixed on yesterday after the US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates for the third time this year, while the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged. On the trade front, China's Commerce Ministry said that trade talks with Washington are going well despite Chile's decision to cancel the APEC summit. Data showed a decrease in China's composite PMI in October while the Japanese government announced an increase in consumer confidence in the country.

The Nikkei 225 ended with gains of 0.37%. Meanwhile, in mainland China, the Shenzhen Composite was down 0.46% at 7:51 am CET and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.44% at 7:50 am CET. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.71% at 7:52 am CET. South Korea's Kospi ended 0.17% higher and the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia finished the day 0.39% down.

The dollar lost 0.16% against the yen to go for 108.6755 at 7:57 am ET.

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2019, 10:04:10 AM »
South China Morning Post reported today that;
"China takes further steps to stabilise yuan to aid trade war deal with US$4.3 billion bill sale in Hong Kong

Efforts by China to stabilise the yuan exchange rate may facilitate the signing of a phase one trade deal the United States, analysts say China will sell a total of 30 billion yuan (US$4.3 billion) in yuan-denominated securities in Hong Kong on Thursday

The latest move, announced on Friday by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), will see a total of 30 billion yuan (US$4.3 billion) in yuan-denominated securities
sold in Hong Kong next week. This a widely used method to push up investors’ borrowing costs, making it more expensive for speculators to bet that the yuan will fall.

The announcement came just ahead of a planned phone call between the top US and Chinese trade negotiators later on Friday to continue efforts to finalise the details of the interim trade pact.
Among other things, the two sides are likely to discuss a new venue for the signing of the deal after the sudden cancellation of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Chile disrupted the previous arrangement for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump to meet on November 17."

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2019, 10:23:44 AM »
Non-Farm Payrolls

Don't forget the US non-farm payrolls are out later today!
Might be worth thinking about closing positions if your stops are on the tight side, we all know how much the charts can whipsaw in the run up to this being released

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2019, 01:06:33 PM »
Cracking job numbers from the USA.  128, 000 against expectations of 85, 000

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2019, 01:09:28 PM »
China rolling out 5g across 50 cities,  worlds largest 5g network.
Great news for smart cars in China, gives them a huge advantage over the West

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2019, 01:49:36 PM »
Dax is on a bit of a charge,  testing highs.
Currently sitting at 12970. Can it breach 13000?

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2019, 08:50:29 PM »
It could be an interesting week ahead for traders.

Christine Lagarde will make her first speech as ECB head tomorrow (Monday), and it is sure to be scrutinised to see if there are any clues as to future policy changes.

BofE new Monetary Policy Report is out on Thursday and traders will be listening for any changes or concerns following last weeks Election announcement.

And then there is the various ongoing issues from the US, impeachment,  trade talks, etc.

Keep an eye on our Economic Calendar for other events,  RBA decision,  Japan market holiday,  etc

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2019, 12:06:15 PM »
A decent enough start to the week,  a lot of green on show

Caesar

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Re: What is moving the markets this week
« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2019, 08:39:52 PM »
AudUsd
With the RBA interest rates decision coming up, perhaps this pair is worth a look.